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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

64/63 at 10:30.  Fall temps.  Not fall DP's. 

I’m out later today than yesterday so there’s always the risk that it will get very uncomfortable while I’m out, but yesterday, instead of being warm and soupy it was like walking through a cool mist. Not bad at all. It’s like that now too; hopefully it lasts awhile longer. 

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15 minutes ago, Streak said:

I’m out later today than yesterday so there’s always the risk that it will get very uncomfortable while I’m out, but yesterday, instead of being warm and soupy it was like walking through a cool mist. Not bad at all. It’s like that now too; hopefully it lasts awhile longer. 

The GFS actually did pretty well predicting the "coolish" temps this week.   At least a few of the panels I looked at on and off. 

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37 minutes ago, Streak said:

I’m out later today than yesterday so there’s always the risk that it will get very uncomfortable while I’m out, but yesterday, instead of being warm and soupy it was like walking through a cool mist. Not bad at all. It’s like that now too; hopefully it lasts awhile longer. 

That was my experience leaving work yesterday in Conestoga. Drove home north along the river, got on the north side of Chickies Hill and it was a different world. Bright with breaks in the clouds. Then, the fog/mist/drizzle rolled in at home about 2 hours later. 

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20 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Sorry, I was looking at Millersville data.




.

That may be using the old "normals" as that is a big difference on the lows vs. MDT.  Highs are close.   I took a random year of 2010 and the first date MDT hit the low 40's was on October 13th at 43.  Some other years were lower/earlier or higher/later.   I saw one year that hit 40 on Oct 1 and one year that stayed above 50 until the end of October. 

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Was checking out Octobers recently and its been mainly mild over the last 10-20 years.  Some worse than others.  Check out 2013.  First low 40's were October 19th but once it hit, it hit.  This year was MUCH warmer than our current one up to this point. 

2013-10-01 80 55 67.5 5.7 0 3 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-02 85 55 70.0 8.6 0 5 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-03 82 59 70.5 9.5 0 6 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-04 86 62 74.0 13.5 0 9 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-05 86 65 75.5 15.4 0 11 T 0.0 0
2013-10-06 85 66 75.5 15.8 0 11 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-07 75 53 64.0 4.7 1 0 0.74 0.0 0
2013-10-08 68 47 57.5 -1.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-09 62 46 54.0 -4.5 11 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-10 58 53 55.5 -2.6 9 0 4.02 0.0 0
2013-10-11 63 56 59.5 1.8 5 0 5.72 0.0 0
2013-10-12 70 59 64.5 7.2 0 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-13 69 53 61.0 4.1 4 0 0.01 0.0 0
2013-10-14 67 51 59.0 2.5 6 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-15 71 48 59.5 3.4 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-16 66 56 61.0 5.3 4 0 T 0.0 0
2013-10-17 71 58 64.5 9.1 0 0 0.25 0.0 0
2013-10-18 63 46 54.5 -0.5 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-19 62 41 51.5 -3.1 13 0 0.25 0.0 0
2013-10-20 61 41 51.0 -3.2 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-21 66 39 52.5 -1.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-22 60 39 49.5 -4.0 15 0 T 0.0 0
2013-10-23 51 36 43.5 -9.6 21 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-24 49 38 43.5 -9.3 21 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-25 53 36 44.5 -7.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-26 54 30 42.0 -10.1 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-27 56 35 45.5 -6.2 19 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-28 60 32 46.0 -5.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-29 59 36 47.5 -3.5 17 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-30 64 45 54.5 3.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
2013-10-31 67 52 59.5 9.2 5 0 0.05 0.0 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Bubbler86perhaps this will be a repeat of 2013 with a mild October as well as some calling for an early start to winter? 

Maybe.  I am more just trying to keep the feelings cool and not make this look like we are on the precipice of a volcano.  Its not at all cold, chilly, crisp, or fall like but compared to Octobers of the last 15-20 years, its actually pretty normal and no where near the warmest ones up to this point.  I mean even MDT has dipped to 48 at this point.  That is something many Octobers do not have yet.  I saw Octobers with lows in the 70s. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Maybe.  I am more just trying to keep the feelings cool and not make this look like we are on the precipice of a volcano.  Its not at all cold, chilly, crisp, or fall like but compared to Octobers of the last 15-20 years, its actually pretty normal and no where near the warmest ones up to this point.  I mean even MDT has dipped to 48 at this point.  That is something many Octobers do not have yet.  I saw Octobers with lows in the 70s. 

Yep, this has not in any way been an "abnormal" October. I think that there's a perception that once we have our first legit cool spell that fall is here for good. Seems like every year we have "Indian Summer" (probably can't say that anymore) where temps reach the 70s after the first frost. 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, this has not in any way been an "abnormal" October. I think that there's a perception that once we have our first legit cool spell that fall is here for good. Seems like every year we have "Indian Summer" (probably can't say that anymore) where temps reach the 70s after the first frost. 

So I cannot say Hey How are Ya, Hey How are Ya and just smile about it?

 

GFS has low 40's several days in MDT starting 11 days from now.  Could be gone in 6 hours but just mentioning.    4-5 nights in a row. 

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

10/17 is a bit of a stretch. GFS has a very pedestrian high of 63 on that day, but that’ll feel great compared to this garbage.

Lows near or possibly below 40.  I will take it.  Many nights in winter will not get that low.   Will it happen?  LOL, who knows.  A snapshot of one model run. 

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