Central PA - Fall 2021

[sauss06]

any of you smart fellas have thoughts on severe weather tomorrow? 

[Voyager]

30 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

any of you smart fellas have thoughts on severe weather tomorrow? 

I don't claim to be a smart fella (although I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express one time) but I saw that Mt Holly posted on Facebook about isolated severe and a chance of excessive rainfall.

[canderson]

46 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

any of you smart fellas have thoughts on severe weather tomorrow? 

Isolated severe - won't be widespread but will have a few cells that pop for strong winds. Dorothy and Toto won't be in PA I doubt, thankfully. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

any of you smart fellas have thoughts on severe weather tomorrow? 

HRRR and 3K Nam are both fairly impressed with a robust albeit quick hitting line of severe.   Could see watches.   The 3K in particular suggests it will a fairly well defined line that gets most at least wet. 

 

[sauss06]

31 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't claim to be a smart fella (although I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express one time) but I saw that Mt Holly posted on Facebook about isolated severe and a chance of excessive rainfall.

 

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

Isolated severe - won't be widespread but will have a few cells that pop for strong winds. Dorothy and Toto won't be in PA I doubt, thankfully. 

 

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

HRRR and 3K Nam are both fairly impressed with a robust albeit quick hitting line of severe.   Could see watches.   The 3K in particular suggests it will a fairly well defined line that gets most at least wet. 

 

Thank you. i'm planning on going to Senators game(s) but i was thinking its doubtful

[Bubbler86]

12Z GFS continues to forecast a Chamber Of Commerce weekend coming up (to help drown our Labor day is over blues.) Highs in the 70's Saturday and low to mid 80's Sunday.  Low DP's and dry.  DP's tickle 60 on Sunday.   Sat Am starts off in the low to mid 50's. 

[TimB]

46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS continues to forecast a Chamber Of Commerce weekend coming up (to help drown our Labor day is over blues.) Highs in the 70's Saturday and low to mid 80's Sunday.  Low DP's and dry.  DP's tickle 60 on Sunday.   Sat Am starts off in the low to mid 50's. 

What about the rest of the run? 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

What about the rest of the run? 

Not too shabby.  Highest 18Z Temp at MDT is 85.  I think KPIT had an 87.  Night time lows go back and forth from just above to just below average until the end when they are above average a bit more solidly.  We cannot ask it to stay below 80 every day, right?  

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not too shabby.  Highest 18Z Temp at MDT is 85.  I think KPIT had an 87.  Night time lows go back and forth from just above to just below average until the end when they are above average a bit more solidly.  We cannot ask it to stay below 80 every day, right?  

Yes we can! LOL. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not too shabby.  Highest 18Z Temp at MDT is 85.  I think KPIT had an 87.  Nigh time lows go back and forth from just above to just below average until the end when they are above average a bit more solidly.  We cannot ask it to stay below 80 every day, right?  

You guys fare a bit better than I do. I think I saw a 10 day stretch where I get to 80 on 7 or 8 days. And a lot of those days also come with DPs in the 60s.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

You guys fare a bit better than I do. I think I saw a 10 day stretch where I get to 80 on 7 or 8 days.

I think MDT has quite a bit of Northeastern influence on this run as the 18Z Temps are only above 80 five days the entire run and that includes this Sunday and Monday so only 3 days out of the final  10.  It's not chilly though and above normal night time lows especially at the end. 

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I think MDT has quite a bit of Northeastern influence on this run as the 18Z Temps are only above 80 five days the entire run and that includes this Sunday and Monday so only 3 days out of the final  10.  its not chilly though and above normal night time lows especially at the end. 

I think I have a 9 day stretch where the DP doesn’t drop below 60 (there might be one panel where it gets down to 59). Yes, I’m with you on the idea that it’s ridiculous to expect that the temperature not get to 80 for the entirety of September, or to expect days and days with highs in the 60s or 50s. But I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect that there won’t be a week-plus stretch of relentless summer heat/humidity this late in the year.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I think I have a 9 day stretch where the DP doesn’t drop below 60 (there might be one panel where it gets down to 59). Yes, I’m with you on the idea that it’s ridiculous to expect that the temperature not get to 80 for the entirety of September, or to expect days and days with highs in the 60s or 50s. But I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect that there won’t be a week-plus stretch of relentless summer heat/humidity this late in the year.

I was comparing it to the 90's from the Euro a day or two ago.  Its certainly a muggy and less than perfect depiction regardless.  Verbatim MDT should go into next week with a departure of negative 1-3 degrees and then it will be a battle to see where it ends by the end of the third week.  Probably somewhere between -1 and +1 just using these temps and assuming they are close to being right.  There is one day next week where MDT is just barely at 70 at 18Z.    Yours would be quite a bit higher verbatim on this run. 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I think I have a 9 day stretch where the DP doesn’t drop below 60 (there might be one panel where it gets down to 59). Yes, I’m with you on the idea that it’s ridiculous to expect that the temperature not get to 80 for the entirety of September, or to expect days and days with highs in the 60s or 50s. But I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect that there won’t be a week-plus stretch of relentless summer heat/humidity this late in the year.

I did just notice MDT only made it to 60 last night (below normal but...) while areas within 15-20 miles of them were in the low 50's.  

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I was comparing it to the 90's from the Euro a day or two ago.  Its certainly a muggy and less than perfect depiction regardless.  Verbatim MDT should go into next week with a departure of negative 1-3 degrees and then it will be a battle to see where it ends by the end of the third week.  Probably somewhere between -1 and +1 just using these temps and assuming they are close to being right.  There is one day next week where MDT is just barely at 70 at 18Z.    Yours would be quite a bit higher verbatim on this run. 

Would be interesting to compare September DPs at PIT or MDT over the past 30 years and see how much of an increase there has or hasn’t been in the number of days where the DP exceeded 60 or 65 or 70 or whatever. Maybe my mind just romanticizes Septembers past and it isn’t justified.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Would be interesting to compare September DPs at PIT or MDT over the past 30 years and see how much of an increase there has or hasn’t been in the number of days where the DP exceeded 60 or 65 or 70 or whatever. Maybe my mind just romanticizes Septembers past and it isn’t justified.

And I have been focusing on the temps since the departures were the point of conversation a few weeks ago.  I realize you want the DP's.  LOL.  Quick scan and MDT has a 60 or lower DP at some point each of the next 7 days and Pit the same just one day less at 6.   The coldinista's win Early and Mid Sept if those maps are right though it would probably be better to say averaginista.  . 

 

 

[sauss06]

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not too shabby.  Highest 18Z Temp at MDT is 85.  I think KPIT had an 87.  Night time lows go back and forth from just above to just below average until the end when they are above average a bit more solidly.  We cannot ask it to stay below 80 every day, right?  

The pool is closed. So yes, yes we can! 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

The pool is closed. So yes, yes we can! 

That is less due to temps and more due to low wages :-).  Not pay $20/hr (or in that area)?  Not gonna have life guards.  

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

And I have been focusing on the temps since the departures were the point of conversation a few weeks ago.  I realize you want the DP's.  LOL.  Quick scan and MDT has a 60 or lower DP at some point each of the next 7 days and Pit the same just one day less at 6. 

 

 

So the question boils down to: has a 15 day stretch (if we take the GFS verbatim) where the dewpoint drops below 60 on just 7 days been common and normal enough historically in mid-September to not be irritated with the endless humidity? My gut instinct would be no, but I could be wrong.

The other question, of course, is should I be concerning myself with something the GFS is showing today when it’s been flip-flopping even more than its normal high standard for flip-flopping? Might be more prudent to wait and see what happens and put off my grouchiness about endless summer heat and humidity until/unless it actually comes to fruition.

[Jns2183]

Would be interesting to compare September DPs at PIT or MDT over the past 30 years and see how much of an increase there has or hasn’t been in the number of days where the DP exceeded 60 or 65 or 70 or whatever. Maybe my mind just romanticizes Septembers past and it isn’t justified.

Do you know anywhere that has a dataset of Max dew point for each day? I know I can pull hourly observations but I have no clue how far back that goes and even so I don’t know enough coding to use Python to do it in any kind of efficient manner. 262,000 lines of observation isn’t handled well in excel or google sheets. You need store such data in a .txt file realistically and call it within python or Matlab or upload it to a different google service and use API to call it to run the statistics using python or some less well known languages.


.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

So the question boils down to: has a 15 day stretch (if we take the GFS verbatim) where the dewpoint drops below 60 on just 7 days been common and normal enough historically in mid-September to not be irritated with the endless humidity? My gut instinct would be no, but I could be wrong.

The other question, of course, is should I be concerning myself with something the GFS is showing today when it’s been flip-flopping even more than its normal high standard for flip-flopping? Might be more prudent to wait and see what happens and put off my grouchiness about endless summer heat and humidity until/unless it actually comes to fruition.

My take on your first question is that DP's are not relative to only being high in the summer.  But I do not have any stats to back up the average amount of days the DP stays at 60 or below in each September.  I would think the mid 20's in the map below is a bit below normal.  Question 2...if we do not concern ourselves then nothing to talk about I guess.

 

[sauss06]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is less due to temps and more due to low wages :-).  Not pay $20/hr (or in that area)?  Not gonna have life guards.  

No, my sister next doors pool. The cover goes over it the day after labor day. Only thing got in the pool yesterday was my daughters dog 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, sauss06 said:

No, my sister next doors pool. The cover goes over it the day after labor day. Only thing got in the pool yesterday was my daughters dog 

I thought you meant public.  LOL.  They never opened the Caledonia pool this year due to labor (I was told). 

[TimB]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

Do you know anywhere that has a dataset of Max dew point for each day? I know I can pull hourly observations but I have no clue how far back that goes and even so I don’t know enough coding to use Python to do it in any kind of efficient manner. 262,000 lines of observation isn’t handled well in excel or google sheets. You need store such data in a .txt file realistically and call it within python or Matlab or upload it to a different google service and use API to call it to run the statistics using python or some less well known languages.


.

I feel like I used to be able to get it from Wunderground back in the day but that was a long time ago. I don’t use that site near as much ever since TWC took it over and it went to crap. As for the programming language stuff, you might as well be speaking Russian to me.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My take on your first question is that DP's are not relative to only being high in the summer.  But I do not have any stats to back up the average amount of days the DP stays at 60 or below in each September.  I would think the mid 20's in the map below is a bit below normal.  Question 2...if we do not concern ourselves then nothing to talk about I guess.

 

Beyond that, is something bad running through the GFS algorithm when it’s putting out these numbers for the Central US for D5? That’s some 10-20 degrees higher than other models. Maybe our hot stretch is error carried forward from this:

[Jns2183]

Beyond that, is something bad running through the GFS algorithm when it’s putting out these numbers for the Central US for D5? That’s some 10-20 degrees higher than other models. Maybe our hot stretch is error carried forward from this:

That may shatter a few records


.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I feel like I used to be able to get it from Wunderground back in the day but that was a long time ago. I don’t use that site near as much ever since TWC took it over and it went to crap. As for the programming language stuff, you might as well be speaking Russian to me.

I am not even sure it would be helpful to gather info on the highest DP of a given day.  Rain causes the RH to go up obviously but raining into relatively dry air at the surface will cause the temp to fall and DP to rise a bit.  So we could have a day with DP's in the 50's, we get a shower, and the DP rises to the 60's for a bit and then back down when the shower is over...but that day is then recorded as a 60's DP day. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Beyond that, is something bad running through the GFS algorithm when it’s putting out these numbers for the Central US for D5? That’s some 10-20 degrees higher than other models. Maybe our hot stretch is error carried forward from this:

 

The 850 positive anomalies are outrageous in conjunction with those temps.   I checked out zone forecasts for Ok and Kanas, this Saturday, and they are 10-20 degrees lower. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That may shatter a few records


.

It’s highly unlikely to happen, as there’s no support for it, but this is the GFS showing something only 105 hours out that is way out of sync with other models (and 20+ degrees above the official NWS forecast for those areas). As for the magnitude of what it’s depicting, verbatim those temps are 6-7 degrees higher at Omaha and Lincoln, NE than any September day on record.

[Bubbler86]

This site takes the Sept DP's and is comparable to May/Early June

 

 

https://weatherspark.com/y/21982/Average-Weather-in-Harrisburg-Pennsylvania-United-States-Year-Round