TimB Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 SPC slight risk (5/15/0 probabilities) area coincides very closely with PBZ’s domain, for what it’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: SPC slight risk (5/15/0 probabilities) area coincides very closely with PBZ’s domain, for what it’s worth. You guys will be right in the meat of the dry slot/spin up area for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I thought of you sweating in a way too hot home... it was pretty cool with the breeze blowing through. very comfortable sleeping last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, TimB84 said: SPC slight risk (5/15/0 probabilities) area coincides very closely with PBZ’s domain, for what it’s worth. Watching the hourly HRRR panels shows that the retrograde we spoke about last week was not totally wrong. Its not nearly as extreme as it was initially shown to be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, sauss06 said: it was pretty cool with the breeze blowing through. very comfortable sleeping last night. I think dealing with fires has made you more warm house capable. I would need to take the roof off my house to be ok with no A/C when temps outside are in the upper 60's. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Current HRRR we get no rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Looks like model wars, with the NAM/Euro keeping the highest totals just to the west and the GFS/CMC bringing the goods more out this way. Either way looks like a cool little event, with the slow propagation of the cold front and the placement of the inverted trough. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Current HRRR we get no rain today. Just light showers. The calls for rain on Wed daytime have been over done for days now. Rain should be here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Just light showers. The calls for rain on Wed daytime have been over done for days now. Rain should be here tonight. Yep. Looks like tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just light showers. The calls for rain on Wed daytime have been over done for days now. Rain should be here tonight. Tomorrow looks to bring the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Tomorrow looks to bring the goods. Yep. A matter of how slow it moves through. I personally think the call for 2-3" seems a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. A matter of how slow it moves through. I personally think the call for 2-3" seems a bit high. Yeah could be HRRR doesn't look impressive through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. A matter of how slow it moves through. I personally think the call for 2-3" seems a bit high. CTP going area-wide 2-4" with higher amounts... I like your thinking a little better. We'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Yeah could be HRRR doesn't look impressive through 18. The 6Z HRRR has the 2-3" but the representation on the radar map is a little fast for it to happen IMO. Most of this falls in a matter of 4-5 hours over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 agree, tomorrow looks crappy anyone see 27 news last night? Adis (sp) said he thinks first measurable snow is the middle of November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The 6Z HRRR has the 2-3" but the representation on the radar map is a little fast for it to happen IMO. Most of this falls in a matter of 4-5 hours over night. I like about 2" of rain for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I can look at a whole GFS run on TT in a matter of seconds. Takes minutes to do the same thing on Pivotal. More upper air maps on pivotal. TT is much easier to navigate, and truth told, good enough for the average weenie. I do like some of the functionality of Piv. though. Yeah snow maps may be skewed a bit, but we all know to view them w/ an abundance of caution...no matter where one views their weather porn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think dealing with fires has made you more warm house capable. I would need to take the roof off my house to be ok with no A/C when temps outside are in the upper 60's. LOL I'd agree... It felt sticky at my casa, not much breeze blowin in either. Maybe he banged his head off a tree? You ok Jon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 CTP going area-wide 2-4" with higher amounts... I like your thinking a little better. We'll find out soon enough. WAR is strong. Think a good chance of seeing some high amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. A matter of how slow it moves through. I personally think the call for 2-3" seems a bit high. I thought that last time, and they were right....knocks on poker table. Round 2 tomorrow seems to be the show now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: TT is much easier to navigate, and truth told, good enough for the average weenie. I do like some of the functionality of Piv. though. Yeah snow maps may be skewed a bit, but we all know to view them w/ an abundance of caution...no matter where one views their weather porn. Yea, snow maps are a no no on TT unless we are cold through the whole event. This forum can never get enough snow maps it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: WAR is strong. Think a good chance of seeing some high amounts. . 6z NAM shows MSLP retrograding between abt 6z-18z tomorrow. Surely keeps surface winds straight outta da south. During that time best forcing is really W 1/2 of Pa though. Here is best panel for E 1/2 of Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, snow maps are a no no on TT unless we are cold through the whole event. This forum can never get enough snow maps it seems. Where is at @Blizzard of 93 with the snow maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, paweather said: Where is at @Blizzard of 93 with the snow maps! Hasn’t been a single flake east of the continental divide on any model run for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Hasn’t been a single flake east of the continental divide on any model run for days. I know I was just teasing. It is all good we will get there in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Just now, paweather said: I know I was just teasing. It is all good we will get there in the coming months. I’m in Cancun the last week of October. It’s a tremendous risk when it comes to missing the first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I’m in Cancun the last week of October. It’s a tremendous risk when it comes to missing the first flakes. That is two vaca's for you in short order! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I’m in Cancun the last week of October. It’s a tremendous risk when it comes to missing the first flakes. Yep Halloween snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is two vaca's for you in short order! LOL. I get 22 days a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yep Halloween snow again. Shush u mouth #hex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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