Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: UGH! Remember, those maps are not temp based they are percentage based. So for 2/3 of PA they are saying 55% Chance above, 45% chance below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Remember, those maps are not temp based they are percentage based. So for 2/3 of PA they are saying 55% Chance above, 45% chance below. Yes true but state college is talking it up to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Yes true but state college is talking it up to warm. I did not read the AFD but model wise there is no indication of it being warm, if that means above average, the first 2-3 days of that period. That is out to the limits of the Euro and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I did not read the AFD but model wise there is no indication of it being warm, if that means above average, the first 2-3 days of that period. That is out to the limits of the Euro and CMC. Good. Let's keep it normal/below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Good. Let's keep it normal/below normal. GFS trying to set the ridge back up for warmer weather the second half of that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS trying to set the ridge back up for warmer weather the second half of that period. Shoot. That stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, paweather said: UGH! I think this adjusts down another notch with this afternoon’s release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Shoot. That stinks. it's similar to this AM. Very shallow warm as to depth it get into the North East. Probably washed away in a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: I think this adjusts down another notch with this afternoon’s release. That was what I was trying to suggest but in my own words. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 GFS in mid-winter form already: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not for Training of course :-). FYI, 80 is higher than any model had you getting to as last evening. Did look short term today. No extremes today so had to spend time on other stuff. I doubt if I see it get much if any higher. Sitting at 79 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: GFS in mid-winter form already: CAD time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: GFS in mid-winter form already: Can that 2nd low in Mexico bomb out in the Gulf and ride up the coast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: CAD time. 540 line is down to TN/GA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Can that 2nd low in Mexico bomb out in the Gulf and ride up the coast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: 540 line is down to TN/GA line. More indications of a (VERY) early winter preview coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: More indications of a (VERY) early winter preview coming up. Verbatim, would probably be a T at PIT. Temp at 18z on 9/29 is 38. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Verbatim, would probably be a T at PIT. Quite the mark. Would be incredible to get MDT over the Sept hump concerning recorded snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Verbatim, would probably be a T at PIT. The progression on the surface is a little wonky. The low passes into N/E and then seemingly transfer back west and moves west for several frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The progression on the surface is a little wonky. The low passes into N/E and then seemingly transfer back west and moves west for several frames. Indeed, not counting on a cut-off retrograding low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Indeed, not counting on a cut-off retrograding low. We’re talking about a low center that retrogrades from Scranton to Traverse City, MI in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: We’re talking about a low center that retrogrades from Scranton to Traverse City, MI in 36 hours. Yea, I noticed that first before I went into details of how it started. Verbatim that would pump cold that is within a few degrees of records down over us (at least for MDT). A couple days of -15 to -20 departures would knock the snot out of any remaining positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, TimB84 said: GFS in mid-winter form already: Love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I noticed that first before I went into details of how it started. Verbatim that would pump cold that is within a few degrees of records down over us (at least for MDT) Gives you an idea of how ridiculous the pattern would have to be to squeeze out a T in September. It’s really not plausible (but again, it’s happened once in Pittsburgh). As for records, verbatim that gives us a high of about 43 at PIT on 9/29. We have 5 September days in our records with highs in the 40s, none since 1950, and none with a high below 46. MDT has done it once: a high of 48 on 9/28/1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Gives you an idea of how ridiculous the pattern would have to be to squeeze out a T in September. It’s really not plausible (but again, it’s happened once in Pittsburgh). As for records, verbatim that gives us a high of about 43 at PIT on 9/29. We have 5 September days in our records with highs in the 40s, none since 1950, and none with a high below 46. MDT has done it once: a high of 48 on 9/28/1984. The lows on there could conceivably give most LSV stations not named MDT a run for the record of 35. MDT would be lucky to break 50 though. I was surprised to see that MDT has hit freezing 3 times in Sept. Two days in 1963 and once in 1947. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFreeze6298 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Frost is expected in Pennsylvania ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Hey @paweather, notice how we squashed that governmental averages report. Now readers are coming away feeling invigorated in their 12Z GFS Digital cold. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 up to 77 now mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hey @paweather, notice how we squashed that governmental averages report. Now readers are coming away feeling invigorated in their 12Z GFS Digital cold. LOL Yep for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The lows on there could conceivably give most LSV stations not named MDT a run for the record of 35. MDT would be lucky to break 50 though. I was surprised to see that MDT has hit freezing 3 times in Sept. Two days in 1963 and once in 1947. That’s more than we have at PIT (31 on 9/19/1959). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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