Central PA - Fall 2021

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

It’s hard when the quoted map here was the GFS’s map for today, just 9 days out.

Nothing has been consistent but I agree that the GFS has not done well handling the Sept heat.  Seems to throw us a bone every few runs then yank it. 

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Nothing has been consistent but I agree that the GFS has not done well handling the Sept heat.  Seems to throw us a bone every few runs then yank it. 

Oddly, the position of Nicholas on that map isn’t terrible.

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

11:15 check in.  Cloudy and 75.  MDT is several degrees behind yesterday as well.  Second day in a row clouds/haze have played havoc with the apparent weather for some. 

Mainly sunny and 82 at 11:45. 

[paweather]

Partly cloudy 80 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Oddly, the position of Nicholas on that map isn’t terrible.

GFS delayed but not denied next week. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS delayed but not denied next week. 

Ah yes, now we’re into that phase where there are 9 days of heat. And when we wake up tomorrow, there will still be 9 days of heat. And when we wake up Thursday, there will still be 9 days of heat.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ah yes, now we’re into that phase where there are 9 days of heat. And when we wake up tomorrow, there will still be 9 days of heat. And when we wake up Thursday, there will still be 9 days of heat.

GFS is warming up for winter. 

[Bubbler86]

Up to 82 at 1PM with partial sun.  Making a run for 85 today.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Up to 82 at 1PM with partial sun.  Making a run for 85 today.  

I'm already at 85 (85.2) heading for at least the upper 80s. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS is warming up for winter. 

Where does MDT stand currently with respect to normal for the month? 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Where does MDT stand currently with respect to normal for the month? 

I am at 82 right now and hazy. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Where does MDT stand currently with respect to normal for the month? 

-.5 going in to today so it will move to a small positive number tomorrow.  Later the month goes, the less severe the moves will be one way or another. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

-.5 going into today so it will move to a small positive number tomorrow.  Later the month goes, the less severe the moves will be one way or another. 

Thanks. I assumed that the negative departure had been eroded but wasn't sure exactly how far it had reversed. Lots of weather left! 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

-.5 going into today so it will move to a small positive number tomorrow.  Later the month goes, the less severe the moves will be one way or another. 

not bad let's shoot for -2 to -4 range for September. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks. I assumed that the negative departure had been eroded but wasn't sure exactly how far it had reversed. Lots of weather left! 

Just based on the GFS, which is a weak base of course, MDT would be probably +3ish going into the last 8-10 days of the month so could be close to a wash and very close to normal at the end of the month.  Again just based on today's GFS.  If I had to be pinned down for a number right now I would guess MDT ends up +1 to +2.   

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Just based on the GFS, which is a weak base of course, MDT would be probably +3ish going into the last 8-10 days of the month so could be close to a wash and very close to normal at the end of the month.  Again just based on today's GFS.  If I had to be pinned down for a number right now I would guess MDT ends up +1 to +2.   

GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief.

Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240.

Ugh.

[paweather]

Just now, TimB84 said:

GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief.

Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240.

Ugh.

Maybe +2 to +4 month instead.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief.

Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240.

Ugh.

Yes, if I had to guess on the 6Z GFS I would have said MDT is back to negative by month end.  GFS has some below normal days but not exactly fall like.

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, if I had to guess on the 6Z GFS I would have said MDT is back to negative by month end.  GFS has some below normal days but not exactly fall like.

Looks like we’re right in the battleground between the trough and the ridge at the end. That would be fairly seasonable.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

Looks like we’re right in the battleground between the trough and the ridge at the end. That would be fairly seasonable.

CMC has some fairly nice days next week.  Would be 40's for lows here.  Probably 60's for HIA. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

CMC has some fairly nice days next week.  Would be 40's for lows here.  Probably 60's for HIA. 

I'm setting up my backup station on the tarmac overnight tonight. I'll get to the bottom of these readings...

[paweather]

Can't wait to be talking about highs in the 20's to 30's range. 

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

CMC has some fairly nice days next week.  Would be 40's for lows here.  Probably 60's for HIA. 

Just looked at the earlier parts of the GFS run, which suggest 90 is still in play for me early next week, when my normal high is 73.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm setting up my backup station on the tarmac overnight tonight. I'll get to the bottom of these readings...

You can probably leave it there all winter so Blizz can grill them as well. 

 

[sauss06]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Can't wait to be talking about highs in the 20's to 30's range. 

slow down Jerry 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Just looked at the earlier parts of the GFS run, which suggest 90 is still in play for me early next week, when my normal high is 73.

Now that I would bet against. Might lose but would still bet against it. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

slow down Jerry 

HAHA! Yep I know I am way too early for that but can't wait.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

slow down Jerry 

 

[sauss06]

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

HAHA! Yep I know I am way too early for that but can't wait.

are you one of those pumpkin spice people in July?  

[canderson]