Central PA - Fall 2021

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Millersville 52F, but they have been running a couple degrees cooler than you for both highs and lows.


.

Well, Bubbler is right...there is something weird going on in SE Dauphin/NW Lancaster counties...we've been consistently warmer than almost all areas all summer. (exception is MDT's high temps, which actually have been similar/lower than mine) 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I only got down to 54.4. Canderson was at 54, so I think mid 50s at MDT might be legit...

I am sure it is legit as to what their thermometer said but its not representative of the area sometimes.    Not one station was over 55 (MDT came in at 56)  on the Wunderground data I just pulled meaning MDT was higher than every single thermometer reported on there which is hard to do with the crazy things I see on there from time to time.    I pulled the LSV using a square drag of area and tried to get it close to the actual boundaries.   The area's official record keeper should be a median, right? 

 

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well, Bubbler is right...there is something weird going on in SE Dauphin/NW Lancaster counties...we've been consistently warmer than almost all areas all summer. (exception is MDT's high temps, which actually have been similar/lower than mine) 

If it were not for MDT being our official record keeper it would not mean much but last night about 75% of MDT's area got to 52 or lower and 100% got to 55 or lower.   On the flip side, York is almost always colder than many.    Assuming that is out at Thomasville, it is quite rural.  

HGR is not much better.  They are seemingly a degree or two below MDT but their lows are never as low as most others.

 

 

[Bubbler86]

3 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yeah yeah lol.  My cwop is still messed up.  Once my season slows down it’s on my list. I have another station online through weather underground.  The anemometer is broken on this station 
Another project 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KPAORRTA2#history

KORT

I have my alternate Cash link, thanks.  I called it Bitcoin as an alternate.  47.5 last night.  You rounded up.  I was actually at 46.5 and rounded down.  LOL.  Coldinista style. 

 

 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have my alternate Cash link, thanks.  I called it Bitcoin as an alternate.  47.5 last night.  You rounded up.  I was actually at 46.5 and rounded down.  LOL.  Coldinista style. 

 

 

 

Yeah the mmts reads the decimal as well and .5 rounds up to the whole number.  First thing NWS taught me.   

[Cashtown_Coop]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If it were not for MDT being our official record keeper it would not mean much but last night about 75% of MDT's area got to 52 or lower and 100% got to 55 or lower.   On the flip side, York is almost always colder than many.    Assuming that is out at Thomasville, it is quite rural.  

HGR is not much better.  They are seemingly a degree or two below MDT but their lows are never as low as most others.

 

 

I agree with Hagerstown.  Always seems to run high.   Thomasville is the best representation for my area.   

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yeah the mmts reads the decimal as well and .5 rounds up to the whole number.  First thing NWS taught me.   

So I guess Rouzerville has a correction to 47 for last night. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I agree with Hagerstown.  Always seems to run high.   Thomasville is the best representation for my area.   

Maybe it is a conspiracy to make us think Global Warming is worse than we thought?  There is only one (or rarely two) jet flights out of HGR on any given day so we cannot blame Allegiant down there. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So I guess Rouzerville has a correction to 47 for last night. 

Here’s what the setup looks like. .4 rounds down .5 rounds up  

[canderson]

ewww this next week looks gross. Damn near 90 degrees for 4 or 5 straight days. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Maybe it is a conspiracy to make us think Global Warming is worse than we thought?  There is only one (or rarely two) jet flights out of HGR on any given day so we cannot blame Allegiant down there. 

Haha.   Florida inbound.   I do think there’s truth in the gw statement.   Airports constantly being expanded, extra blacktop, buildings etc and that’s where we decide to measure temperature for a official records.  I’ll stop there but there’s more to say.   

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Here’s what the setup looks like.  .4 rounds down   .5 rounds up  

You have some high quality stuff going there.  One reason I always like to check your readings is that on evenings like last night we will be similar.  We are seemingly only far apart when we have cold damming situations and I lose on those every time with my closest western mountain being way over in Mercersburg.   The 'Ville does not do FRZ very well. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You have some high quality stuff going there.  One reason I always like to check your readings as evenings like last night we will be similar.  We are seemingly only far apart when we have cold damming situations and I lose on those every time with my closest western mountain being way over in Mercersburg.   The 'Ville does not doing FRZ very well. 

It’s been a learning experience for both of us during events.   Crazy how things can vary.   

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Haha.   Florida inbound.   I do think there’s truth in the gw statement.   Airports constantly being expanded, extra blacktop, buildings etc and that’s where we decide to measure temperature for a official records.  I’ll stop there but there’s more to say.   

Its one of the few places that are staffed every day, 365.  On a related note and HGR, if you sit where "X Marks the spot" when an Allegiant jet is taking off from West to East you can get some great pics just as it is lifting off to your left.  Its pretty amazing.  I am surprised we never get asked what we are doing.   There is a phone company utility building right beside that X where I have sat and waited for the take off.  Just never sure which way they will be going on the runway so its not fool proof. 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

On 9/10/2021 at 2:59 PM, TimB84 said:

But, it looks like the light at the end of the tunnel is within the model run.

Well I went scanning for some 12Z good news and did not find any.  A lot of 80's coming up.  EC has 5-6 days in a row with probably a 90 or two in the hot spots.  GFS and CMC not nearly as hot.  EC does take temps back to normal for the last several days of the run but not really "nice".  Normal highs and lows several above normal.   Guessing the EC is overdone for most but 80's are still 80's. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Fully expecting to hit 90-92 at least 2 days this coming week. Wouldn't surprise me if I get close tomorrow.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am sure it is legit as to what their thermometer said but its not representative of the area sometimes.    Not one station was over 55 (MDT came in at 56)  on the Wunderground data I just pulled meaning MDT was higher than every single thermometer reported on there which is hard to do with the crazy things I see on there from time to time.    I pulled the LSV using a square drag of area and tried to get it close to the actual boundaries.   The area's official record keeper should be a median, right? 

 

Agree 100%

[TheDreamTraveler]

Anyone have any idea what's going on with that potential homebrew tropical system a week from now? I know the gfs has been showing it riding up the coast and potentially having it rain here but I'm wondering how likely that'll be

[Bubbler86]

On a day the American flag stands for much, it was used to save a life.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/miami-fans-rescue-cat-heart-wrenching-moment

 

[Bubbler86]

Defintely going to break 80 here today.  68 at 930.  Feels warmer than yesterday.  At least the 0 and 6z runs pulled back on the heat a bit next week.  Hrrr suggests 82 to 84 for most today in the lsv. 

[Streak]

A throwback to this date last year: looks like the next few days will have “artificial” haze in the form of smoke from the out-of-control wildfires in the west/PNW. The only difference is that last year, the first few days the week of the 14th - 18th were pleasantly cool and feeling like fall whereas this upcoming week is definitely a nod to late summer. 

At the moment, there are some clouds and light haze but it’s still fairly clear skies. Maybe this year won’t be as bad as last year. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Defintely going to break 80 here today.  68 at 930.  Feels warmer than yesterday.  At least the 0 and 6z runs pulled back on the heat a bit next week.  Hrrr suggests 82 to 84 for most today in the lsv. 

I can handle that.   Just hit 70 here at 10a

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I can handle that.   Just hit 70 here at 10a

MDT was 70 at that same point.  But you hit 54 last night and have risen 16 degrees since.  MDT hit 64 last night so they have only risen 6.  The sun must be 10 degrees hotter over you so far today :-).    I am starting to wonder if they do have equipment issues.  York down to 56 last night but up to 73 at 10AM.  LNS down to 60 and up to 72 at 10AM.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT was 70 at that same point.  But you hit 54 last night and have risen 16 degrees since.  MDT hit 64 last night so they have only risen 6.  The sun must be 10 degrees hotter over you so far today :-).  

With MDT sitting at 312ft, you’d think they would decouple well.   Minus the heat island effect 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

With MDT sitting at 312ft, you’d think they would decouple well.   Minus the heat island effect 

And I added to my post since you saw it but every station I checked had risen by 10 or more degrees since early lows except MDT and Cap City.   So strange....

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Defintely going to break 80 here today.  68 at 930.  Feels warmer than yesterday.  At least the 0 and 6z runs pulled back on the heat a bit next week.  Hrrr suggests 82 to 84 for most today in the lsv. 

It'll be interesting to see if the Hrrr is correct  - already up to 78.4 here. I think upper 80s seems realistic.

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It'll be interesting to see if the Hrrr is correct  - already up to 78.4 here. I think upper 80s seems realistic.

HRRR actually only has highs of 82 for all the LSV.  I said 82-84 to account for the extra we seem to keep seeing south of Harrisburg.  3K was 82 as well.  

 

Edit-Newest HRRR has 83 now.  The thing to watch for is that it agrees with the fast rise but holds between 81 and 83 for 4 hours this afternoon. 

[Itstrainingtime]

47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

HRRR actually only has highs of 82 for all the LSV.  I said 82-84 to account for the extra we seem to keep seeing south of Harrisburg.  3K was 82 as well.  

 

Edit-Newest HRRR has 83 now.  The thing to watch for is that it agrees with the fast rise but holds between 81 and 83 for 4 hours this afternoon. 

There was a day a few weeks ago with a similar situation  - Hrrr insisted that the rapid rise in temps would level off during the afternoon. I got a couple of degrees higher than the model projected but it got the overall idea right. Next 2 hours will be telling because I've passed 80...

[Itstrainingtime]

82.2 here at  12:30. 

[Voyager]

79.7 has been the high so far here in the land of the black diamonds, so officially we did get to 80 via the NWS practice of rounding up or down accordingly.