paweather Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: To be fair, +8 months are statistically somewhat easier to get during the cold season than they are during the warm season. I wouldn’t go as far as to predict a +8 December, but the signs that December will be disappointing are really starting to add up. Nearly every GFS run has 60s imby at some point, and I imagine it’s the same or worse at MDT. Looks like a warm start to winter. Damn this might be the whole winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: Take a look at the upper air differences between the GFS and Euro. That energy coming down from Manitoba is the 12/6 event we're tracking. But most importantly, look at the confluence and energy over the northeast at hour 144. Completely different look, and heights are a lot lower over the east on the Euro due to the confluence. This doesn't allow for heights to build in time and, verbatim, the Euro is a clipper redeveloper that crushes New England. In a fast Nina flow that we have, surprises and changes will be the common story. Lots of small mood flake events in this fast flow with some occasional nice surprises when things line up correctly Thanks, without some type of southern moisture involvement, its not much of a story here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Today's GFS has 70's at MDT (extrapolated from 18Z panel) which is was the backing for my extreme comment. The real reason today's GFS is so bad, to me, is the lack of cold air anywhere in the Eastern US or Canada. It's an ugly look. Even the famous 18z run the other day with the Arctic blast early next week came on the heels of a 6z run where one of the panels had a 72 imby on the same day. Models seem to be continuing their inevitable recognition of a December pattern we don’t want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 If it's going to be warm, let's at least make it dry. I can deal with 50s and 60s and sun more than 40s and rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Nam and HRRR depictions of the snow overnight into tomorrow would be an LSV rush hour issue if it were colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 41 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam and HRRR depictions of the snow overnight into tomorrow would be an LSV rush hour issue if it were colder. Cold enough for all snow in Pillow? Just got home. Will check models later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Cold enough for all snow in Pillow? Just got home. Will check models later... All snow but doubt roads are too bad after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: All snow but doubt roads are too bad after sunrise. Thanks! Just have to watch the bridges. I went skating on one this morning on my shortcut between Loyalton and Pillow. Luckily it was the steers and not the drives. I was coasting and slid to the right on a left curving bridge. A nunge of the throttle scooted me off the ice quicker and I stayed on the road. I won't lie, though. I did seat pucker a little bit...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Thanks! Just have to watch the bridges. I went skating on one this morning on my shortcut between Loyalton and Pillow. Luckily it was the steers and not the drives. I was coasting and slid to the right on a left curving bridge. A nunge of the throttle scooted me off the ice quicker and I stayed on the road. I won't lie, though. I did seat pucker a little bit...lol Ice Road Truckers: Pillow PA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Ice Road Truckers: Pillow PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Looks like models picking up on pattern better. Lots of clippers and cutters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, Superstorm said: Looks like models picking up on pattern better. Lots of clippers and cutters. . Yea, its not encouraging for team snow in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, its not encouraging for team snow in the LSV. Team snow in the LSV will have seen snow at least in the air for 4 straight days after the tomorrow morning Clipper. Not a bad way to end a cold below normal November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 I'm kind of surprised at my current temperature (28.2). I imagine it will rise once the cloud cover rolls in, but still. I didn't expect it to get this cold so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Team snow in the LSV will have seen snow at least in the air for 4 straight days after the tomorrow morning Clipper. Not a bad way to end a cold below normal November. I was expecting your wrath several times tonight so no harm, no foul. Trying to be positive now, the 18Z GFS is better than the frying pan pattern at 12Z but is still a rain parade with a 70's day so ground truth has not changed. Maybe in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was expecting your wrath several times tonight so no harm, no foul. Trying to be positive now, the 18Z GFS is better than the frying pan pattern at 12Z but is still a rain parade with a 70's day so ground truth has not changed. Maybe in 6 hours. Lol…no wrath, just enjoying the early season appetizer snow events over the last few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol…no wrath, just enjoying the early season appetizer snow events over the last few days. We got to hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: We got to hope! The upcoming pattern is a lot of back and forth. The northern steam is dominating at this time, which is typical for a La Niña. We just need one of these to dig a bit more with the right timing to provide a decent event. It’s very early, but I like seeing some of these weak storms bringing us a little light snow for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Here is CTP’s take on the Clipper tomorrow. Arriving quick on its heels from the NW will be a thickening layer of clouds and a period of light snow late tonight and Tuesday morning, thanks to an area of of weak to mdt low-mid level warm advection, beneath the left exit region of a 110-120kt 300 mb jetlet. Expect between 1-1.5 inches of snow to fall across the northern and western mtns per consensus high res model qpf output and a 10-12:1 SLR, with a coating to 0.75 of an inch across the Ridge and Valley Region of the state. Although the snow accums will be light, the period of nuisance winter weather will target the morning rush hour across much of the CWA. This will likely slicken-up many untreated roads with overnight min temps in the low to mid 20s over the higher terrain, and upper 20s throughout the Central Valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Cloudy and 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Snowing in Tower City... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Cloudy 33 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 It looks like a snow type of day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: It looks like a snow type of day We had a few flakes flying when some heavier dBZ's came by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 13 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: I was expecting your wrath several times tonight so no harm, no foul. Trying to be positive now, the 18Z GFS is better than the frying pan pattern at 12Z but is still a rain parade with a 70's day so ground truth has not changed. Maybe in 6 hours. Both overnight runs have that same garbage in fantasy land. The hot, humid day is even the same day on both runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We had a few flakes flying when some heavier dBZ's came by. Let's do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Both overnight runs have that same garbage in fantasy land. The hot, humid day is even the same day on both runs. Yep. I did not want to sully the light snow today too much but there actually could be a few 80's over here on on the day you speak (model talk, not a forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Depressing overnight model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 80 degree day?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 30 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: 80 degree day?!? 18Z temps in the low 70's translates to someone in the HIA hitting 80 possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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