Central PA - Fall 2021

[Bubbler86]

Regardless if the timing works out for the 5-7th storm, as long as the maps keeping showing this look it will be interesting to watch every 6 hours.  12Z GFS phases them much too early for us as of today, but cannot quibble with timing this far out. 

 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Regardless if the timing works out for the 5-7th storm, as long as the maps keeping showing this look it will be interesting to watch every 6 hours.  12Z GFS today phases them much too early for us but cannot quibble with timing this far out. 

 

I'll say way too early! UGH. 

[paweather]

6 hours before was totally different come on 12z. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

6 hours before was totally different come on 12z. 

On the prior run,  the Northern Stream Vort was not as pronounced allowing the Southern Stream Vort to  to have a more West to East Trajectory.   Stronger Vort on 12Z tugs the Southern Stream up. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Meanwhile...nice little snow shower is here now. 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

On the prior run,  the Northern Stream Vort was not as pronounced allowing the Southern Stream Vort to  to have a more West to East Trajectory.   Stronger Vort on 12Z tugs the Southern Stream up. 

Let's hope happy hour and the EURO fixes this. 

[Bubbler86]

Pretty crappy look later in the GFS.   The real cold air is locked up in Western Canada.   A drastic change from 6Z. 

 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Pretty crappy look later in the GFS.   The real cold air is locked up in Western Canada.   A drastic change from 6Z. 

It is an off run

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, paweather said:

It is an off run

As in "Blizz is going to go off because there are highs in the 70's (near 80)  and lows in the 50's"?  Pitt is 66 degrees at 7AM on the 13th.  Too astonishing to not mention, knowing it will change. 

 

 

 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

As in "Blizz is going to go off because there are highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's"?  Pitt is 66 degrees at 7AM on the 13th.  Too astonishing to not mention, knowing it will change. 

 

 

No doubt Blizz will go off trust in the EURO. 

[paweather]

@Bubbler86You got EURO PBP?

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

@Bubbler86You got EURO PBP?

I dunno, I am 0-1 today.  I will see if I have time.  The part of the GFS that was bad is outside the Euro's range.   CMC took away the 9th snowstorm and replaced it with a mix storm on the 8th.  Sloppy and not real cold. 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I dunno, I am 0-1 today.  I will see if I have time.  The part of the GFS that was bad is outside the Euro's range. 

OK sounds good.

[pawatch]

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I dunno, I am 0-1 today.  I will see if I have time.  The part of the GFS that was bad is outside the Euro's range.   CMC took away the 9th snowstorm and replaced it with a mix storm on the 8th.  Sloppy and not real cold. 

Ha that sounds familiar 

It was cold enough yesterday that snow didn’t even melt off my truck. Today it melted.

[Bubbler86]

31 minutes ago, paweather said:

OK sounds good.

This evenings snow on the Euro. 

 

[Bubbler86]

Temps hit 30ish at MDT tonight then stay above freezing for a few days  Highs mid 40's Wed, low 60's Thur, near 50 Friday.  (LSV). 

[paweather]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This evenings snow on the Euro. 

 

I'll take a 1/2" Thanks!

[paweather]

Looking interesting on the EURO at 144

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Looking interesting on the EURO at 144

Its at least below freezing again.  Dec is going to start off with a healthy positive departure per the Euro.  The Canderson +8 departure would be in play on the GFS. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its at least below freezing again.  Dec is going to start off with a healthy positive departure per the Euro. 

We will see what happens at 168

[Bubbler86]

Gulf closed for business as the Euro rolls into the 6th.  A change from 0Z. 

[paweather]

Definitely below freezing I don't the precip data

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Definitely below freezing I don't the precip data

A drastic change from 0Z.  Models are jumping all over.  A colder solution for early next week but outside of Boston, a dry solution. Basically a clipper flying by to the north. 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

A drastic change from 0Z.  Models are jumping all over.  A colder solution for early next week but outside of Boston, a dry solution. Basically a clipper flying by to the north. 

Yep what are the models doing to us

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Yep what are the models doing to us

Bubbler 86'd the PBP's today.  0-2.

 

 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Bubbler 86'd the PBP's today.  0-2.

 

 

Exactly not your fault though. Bad models run today. This will be all winter long ups and downs. 

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Gulf closed for business as the Euro rolls into the 6th.  A change from 0Z. 

Take a look at the upper air differences between the GFS and Euro. That energy coming down from Manitoba is the 12/6 event we're tracking. But most importantly, look at the confluence and energy over the northeast at hour 144. Completely different look, and heights are a lot lower over the east on the Euro due to the confluence. This doesn't allow for heights to build in time and, verbatim, the Euro is a clipper redeveloper that crushes New England. In a fast Nina flow that we have, surprises and changes will be the common story. Lots of small mood flake events in this fast flow with some occasional nice surprises when things line up correctly

Euro:

 

GFS:

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Bubbler 86'd the PBP's today.  0-2.

 

 

No. Bubbler's PBP today is simply the models starting to latch on to the pattern that exists. Pattern will drive our weather, not the models. 

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its at least below freezing again.  Dec is going to start off with a healthy positive departure per the Euro.  The Canderson +8 departure would be in play on the GFS. 

To be fair, +8 months are statistically somewhat easier to get during the cold season than they are during the warm season. I wouldn’t go as far as to predict a +8 December, but the signs that December will be disappointing are really starting to add up. Nearly every GFS run has 60s imby at some point, and I imagine it’s the same or worse at MDT.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

To be fair, +8 months are statistically somewhat easier to get during the cold season than they are during the warm season. I wouldn’t go as far as to predict a +8 December, but the signs that December will be disappointing are really starting to add up. Nearly every GFS run has 60s imby at some point, and I imagine it’s the same or worse at MDT.

Today's GFS has 70's at MDT (extrapolated from 18Z panel)  which was the backing for my extreme comment.   The real reason today's GFS is so bad, to me, is the lack of cold air anywhere in the Eastern US or Canada.  It's an ugly look.