TugHillMatt Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: CNN Headline News. Delayed but not denied. Climate Crisis Part 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 18°F this morning. That "F" is for "**** ITS COLD!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 21.4 was the lowest so far at my homestead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 CTP included this in their discussion this morning. It looks like most La Niñas produced at least near median snow in State College. And then there is the legendary 95-96 .CLIMATE... La Nina looks like it will continue for the winter. Just ran some numbers and found that... Out of the last 41 winter seasons `80-81 thru `20-`21: - 16 have been La Nina during the DJF period (meteorological winter). In these 16 seasons, the State College Co-Op location (PSU`s Walker Building) snowfall has been: - Above normal (GT +1 standard deviation) for only 2 seasons (`83-`84 and `95-`96). 1995-1996 had nearly 100" of snow, - 9 seasons were near normal (median of 38.8" over the 41 seasons), and - 5 were below normal (LT -1 standard deviation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 The GFS & Euro are both on board with bringing the first widespread light snow event to most of CTP on Sunday from a Clipper system. Here is the 0z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Here is the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 I would be thrilled with several hours of light snow and getting the first measurable snow on the board for the season in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 20 here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GFS & Euro are both on board with bringing the first widespread light snow event to most of CTP on Sunday from a Clipper system. Here is the 0z Euro bring it Blizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 21 this morning from the valley where the sun doesn't rise above the mountain until after 9:00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 21 this morning from the valley where the sun doesn't rise above the mountain until after 9:00am The land of Black Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 21 this morning from the valley where the sun doesn't rise above the mountain until after 9:00am The Fairbanks of Pennsylvania...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: The Fairbanks of Pennsylvania...lol Limited sun from November till February at the house here. Some other parts of the farm get it a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 GFS keying on Dec 5th again though this is dependent a front passing and a disturbance forming so.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS keying on Dec 5th again though this is dependent a front passing and a disturbance forming so.... That looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: That looks good! It's time for our first "it will trend north" post of the cold season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It's time for our first "it will trend north" post of the cold season. yep for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 bring it Blizz!CTP forecast is bone dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: CTP forecast is bone dry. . yes I was going to say that. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Posted on NWS discussion page. .CLIMATE... La Nina looks like it will continue for the winter. Just ran some numbers and found that... Out of the last 41 winter seasons `80-81 thru `20-`21: - 16 have been La Nina during the DJF period (meteorological winter). In these 16 seasons, the State College Co-Op location (PSU`s Walker Building) snowfall has been: - Above normal (GT +1 standard deviation) for only 2 seasons (`83-`84 and `95-`96). 1995-1996 had nearly 100" of snow, - 9 seasons were near normal (median of 38.8" over the 41 seasons), and - 5 were below normal (LT -1 standard deviation). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Superstorm said: CTP forecast is bone dry. . Other model suites have nothing or focus on a different piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Other model suites have nothing or focus on a different piece of energy. GFS has us around 2-3" on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Still only 26 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 I bottomed out at 24 last night. MDT only hit 29, I guess we'll take it ha. Mount Washington led the way by hitting -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Sunday first snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 FWIW (and that's not a lot), if one looks at @paweathers 6z GFS run, it would likely give many snow weenies some morning wood.... Not a lock and not likely to work out as depicted, but takeaway verbatim would be several chances coming up in early december with vorts passing thru every few days. Nice early winter start IMO. Ens guidance not as robust for clipper as Op closes off and digs a bit while Ens stays open (which would argue for a norther correction). Beyond that....I just like the look and will keep an eye (or both) on next week while freeezin arse off in treestand in search of venison. Not going to be on much over the next week, but I'll be looking from afar....with that said, despite this shitstorm we still are working through, we all still have a bunch to be thankful for. Focus on what you are fortunate to have, and worry much less about what you don't. There is always someone who would gladly trade places with you. Happy and healthy Thanksgiving to all. Nut 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: Sunday first snowfall? The first two 12Z's are not overly enthusiastic for Sunday. NAM does not go that far but is not looking amped. Icon has a coastal spin up and steal the show. Icon does portray a choo choo train of snow TV events. Of most interest to me is the extraordinarily cold air just to the North on the Icon. If something bubbled up and pulled that down, game on. As is the air is moderately below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 The GFS went with the Icon for Sunday. The amplification takes place to our East over the ocean. Miller like screw job. @TimB84 takes the snow and leaves us with none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS went with the Icon for Sunday. The amplification takes place to our East over the ocean. Miller like screw job. @TimB84 takes the snow and leaves us with none. Shoot as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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