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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My neighbor is mowing.  He did not mow once in July or the first half of August. His grass is literally growing better now than mid summer. 

I mowed yesterday afternoon. 

After being in Pittsburgh and then down and out with the flu, I was surprised how green and vibrant my yard was given the number of freezes this season. I thought I was finished for the season (minus the day before snow mow) but we'll see what happens. 

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On 11/22/2021 at 12:25 PM, Bubbler86 said:

I thought about her but did not want to Cashtown to reply "Younger" or something like that. 

I thought you might be making a car pun; winter might not be a “Lemon” but a “Ferrari” (taking some liberties with the spelling and pronunciation, of course, but it works!)

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9 minutes ago, Streak said:

I thought you might be making a car pun; winter might not be a “Lemon” but a “Ferrari” (taking some liberties with the spelling and pronunciation, of course, but it works!)

Oh, I was doing that.  I thought the Lemon was obvious but was not sure anyone got the second half.  Thanks for noticing.   But I also thought of Janelle and did not want Cash to get on me.  LOL

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I mowed yesterday afternoon. 

After being in Pittsburgh and then down and out with the flu, I was surprised how green and vibrant my yard was given the number of freezes this season. I thought I was finished for the season (minus the day before snow mow) but we'll see what happens. 

Mine is fairly green under trees but is growing very slowly.  But it is still growing.  I will have to do one more mow.  

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@paweather So...the MU Weather Director is saying "there's a chance" :) (even if it's not a good one)

 

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which I discussed in detail last week, is likely to reach its peak negative value on Nov. 26 or 27 and not go back into its positive phase until Dec. 1 or 2. The blocking high pressure system across the North Atlantic will actually retrograde briefly westward and become centered over or just to the south of Greenland before shifting eastward again by the final day or two of the month. At the same time, the jet stream will bulge northward across the western U.S. and southwestern Canada and dip southward across the East. This jet stream reconfiguration will result in the coldest, 4-6 day stretch of weather we've seen since February.. and I'd be willing to bet that temperatures average some 5-10 degrees below normal over the last 5 days of the month. We typically experience highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to around 30 in late November when the large-scale weather pattern takes on this configuration, and I see no exception this time.

I'll end things by mentioning that I do see the possibility of a potential brush with wintry weather around the 28th or 29th of November. It's very typical to get light snowfall in La Nina winters from weak, fast-moving disturbances (deemed "Alberta Clippers") that race southeastward out of Canada, zip through the Midwest and end up reaching the East Coast within 24-48 hours. The large-scale weather pattern that lends itself to these types of systems is nearly identical to the one that should unfold over the last 5 days of the month. However, snowfall typically only occurs in a ~ 50-150 mile-wide band along and to the north of a clipper system's track, so it'll require a near-perfect storm track and overnight timing for any snow to occur in LanCo. It's definitely something I'll be keeping a close eye on this week since some guidance suggests this outcome, but the chance of receiving our first measurable snowfall before December is still only around 20%

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

After my snafu with the BN departures I will cede someone to someone else to look that up. 

There have only been 4 Marches without even a trace of snow at MDT, and the other 3 all featured measurable snow in Nov.

However, it looks like MDT is staring down the barrel of a second consecutive year without measurable snow in March or November (2020 had a trace in both).

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19 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

There have only been 4 Marches without even a trace of snow at MDT, and the other 3 all featured measurable snow in Nov.

However, it looks like MDT is staring down the barrel of a second consecutive year without measurable snow in March or November (2020 had a trace in both).

Did you notice if there had ever been a Nov without even a T?

 

 

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Does MDT hit 60 on Thursday?  HRRR and EC leaning toward it.  Nam's, CMC, and GFS throw some caution into it happening.  Frankly, its the perfect day for it to happen in my opinion.  Actually allow some opportunity for people to meet on their decks, play their turkey bowls, not have to bundle up to go out, etc.    Either way they will be no where near the Turkey record.  I did not an exhaustive search but it hit 73 at MDT on Thanksgiving Nov 22, 2007. 

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44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Does MDT hit 60 on Thursday?  HRRR and EC leaning toward it.  Nam's, CMC, and GFS throw some caution into it happening.  Frankly, its the perfect day for it to happen in my opinion.  Actually allow some opportunity for people to meet on their decks, play their turkey bowls, not have to bundle up to go out, etc.    Either way they will be no where near the Turkey record.  I did not an exhaustive search but it hit 73 at MDT on Thanksgiving Nov 22, 2007. 

Maybe I'll get 55 out of the deal if MDT would hit 60.

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