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Central PA - Fall 2021

canderson

By canderson,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035
MAG5035

It’s likely that the severe aspect of the line likely won’t hold across the mountains. The big parameter with this line driving into western PA with what appears to be multiple couplets (probable QLCS

2001kx
2001kx
MAG5035
MAG5035

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it.  This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS...Crickets cannot be a good sign.  Did see the 12Z HRRR is going for 60ish tomorrow still (LSV)

Meh.  We've known midweek was going to warm. Other than the warmies....not sure how much diff there is between 60-63 for the rest of us.  

12z changes are just noise at this point.  If you want to discuss the weekend, the Friday trough is sliightly more deep and the ridging after, a little less ridgy.  Blizz's holiday weekend cooldown still looks on target (GFS Op and Ens guidance).  

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Meh.  We've know midweek was going to warm. Other than the warmies....not sure how much diff there is between 60-63.  

12z changes are just noise at this point.  If you want to discuss the weekend, the Friday trough is sliightly more deep and the ridging after, a little less ridgy.  Blizz's holiday weekend cooldown still looks on target (GFS Op and Ens guidance).  

I actually had not looked but I was mostly refencing the potential for negative titled amplification early next week.  Just looked at the GFS and its fairly progressive right now. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I actually had not looked but I was mostly refencing the potential for negative titled amplification early next week.  Just looked at the GFS and its fairly progressive right now. 

Going back through the last couple days....it's been showing a progressive-back n forth look until later next week when we might be on the norther side of a trough for a few days and maybe more.

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
Just now, pasnownut said:

Going back through the last couple days....it's been showing a progressive look until later next week when we might be on the norther side of a trough for a few days and maybe more.

The EC was showing the amped up trough.  Was looking for the GFS to show any sign of it as well. 

image.png.9f3c7da87f39e586d15efd2b4c826a12.png

 

 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I actually had not looked but I was mostly refencing the potential for negative titled amplification early next week.  Just looked at the GFS and its fairly progressive right now. 

While I agree on progressive in nature, there still is troughiness showing up.  Moreover, trough looking to go a bit more neg tilt on nooner GFS suggests that GFS and Euro are seeing similar trends at 500mb

 

gfs_z500a_us_28.png

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

While I agree on progressive in nature, there still is troughiness showing up.  Moreover, trough looking to go a bit more neg tilt on nooner GFS suggests that GFS and Euro are seeing similar trends at 500mb

 

 

A trough swings through but nothing amplifies like it did on the EC 24 hours ago...and in fact today's EC is also more progressive than it's 24 hour past version.  Nooners is snoozers. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Does this mean we warmup again after Turkey day?

I just looked at the event for a week from now.   But scanning the entire GFS, the temps are seasonal.   No 60's and frankly maybe even low 50's for highs at the peak.  Just no interesting weather until the weekend after Turkey Day when a low goes through Western PA.  Mostly rain here.  

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just looked at the event for a week from now.   But scanning the entire GFS, the temps are seasonal.   No 60's and frankly maybe even low 50's for highs at the peak.  Just no interesting weather until the weekend after Turkey Day when a low goes through Western PA.  Mostly rain here.  

Thanks! Bummer about the rain. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Davis Station is online 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KPAORRTA17

Thanks goodness.  When I saw I was only at 32 and MDT was at 30, this AM, I went to see if you were up and when I saw not, I started shaking as its not normal for me to beat out/come in higher the HIA gang.  I wanted some confirmation. 

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Cashtown_Coop

Cashtown_Coop

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks goodness.  When I saw I was only at 32 and MDT was at 30, this AM, I went to see if you were up and when I saw not, I started shaking as its not normal for me to beat out the HIA gang.  I wanted some confirmation. 

CWOP is working too.   Big day !!

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=E5637&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The losetoa 2021 Storm

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/weather/thanksgiving-travel-weather-forecast-storm/index.html

 

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it. 

This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of snow over a large part of PA. The Euro has also occasionally had wound up coastal runs that had interior PA snow. It’s definitely a timeframe with potential with what looks to be a pretty significant amplification of the pattern and favorable trending of pretty much all the major teleconnections going into next week (NAO/AO going negative and nice Greenland block, EPO/PNA going positive). Big takeaway regardless of the eventual evolution of the features that may or may not deliver a coastal is the Thanksgiving holiday and the couple days either side look like they could be pretty cold. Some of you guys might even have to turn the AC off haha. 
 

I’m not sure if a straight up winter pattern sticks quite yet. Kinda looking more into the start of December or so for the possibility of that. The early stratwarm events and Nina ENSO state are lending support to what has seemed to be a general theme of a quick start and cold December in most prognosticators winter forecasts. Lining up the teleconnections and keeping them in the direction they appear to be heading next week will def go a long way to giving the east a cold pattern right off the bat kicking off meteorological winter. The return of significant blocking in the NAO/AO realm really saved us last winter against a pattern on the Pac/western US side that was rarely favorable. So one thing I’m looking for as a key to success of consistent cold winter weather this winter is having the favorable Pacific/Western US pattern as I wouldn’t trust depending on seeing the kind of long lasting anomalous -NAO we saw last year. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it. 

This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of snow over a large part of PA. The Euro has also occasionally had wound up coastal runs that had interior PA snow. It’s definitely a timeframe with potential with what looks to be a pretty significant amplification of the pattern and favorable trending of pretty much all the major teleconnections going into next week (NAO/AO going negative and nice Greenland block, EPO/PNA going positive). Big takeaway regardless of the eventual evolution of the features that may or may not deliver a coastal is the Thanksgiving holiday and the couple days either side look like they could be pretty cold. Some of you guys might even have to turn the AC off haha. 
 

I’m not sure if a straight up winter pattern sticks quite yet. Kinda looking more into the start of December or so for the possibility of that. The early stratwarm events and Nina ENSO state are lending support to what has seemed to be a general theme of a quick start and cold December in most prognosticators winter forecasts. Lining up the teleconnections and keeping them in the direction they appear to be heading next week will def go a long way to giving the east a cold pattern right off the bat kicking off meteorological winter. The return of significant blocking in the NAO/AO realm really saved us last winter against a pattern on the Pac/western US side that was rarely favorable. So one thing I’m looking for as a key to success of consistent cold winter weather this winter is having the favorable Pacific/Western US pattern as I wouldn’t trust depending on seeing the kind of long lasting anomalous -NAO we saw last year. 

I liked the look at the end of the 10 day Euro Op. run today.

Low pressure developing over the south central states. High Pressure building in to our north and northwest. I would have liked  to see what day 11 and 12 looked like.

I think the pattern will give us opportunities to score snow early over the next few weeks.

75FFBC65-505B-4385-A9DD-D602E43C7E64.png

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it. 

This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of snow over a large part of PA. The Euro has also occasionally had wound up coastal runs that had interior PA snow. It’s definitely a timeframe with potential with what looks to be a pretty significant amplification of the pattern and favorable trending of pretty much all the major teleconnections going into next week (NAO/AO going negative and nice Greenland block, EPO/PNA going positive). Big takeaway regardless of the eventual evolution of the features that may or may not deliver a coastal is the Thanksgiving holiday and the couple days either side look like they could be pretty cold. Some of you guys might even have to turn the AC off haha. 
 

I’m not sure if a straight up winter pattern sticks quite yet. Kinda looking more into the start of December or so for the possibility of that. The early stratwarm events and Nina ENSO state are lending support to what has seemed to be a general theme of a quick start and cold December in most prognosticators winter forecasts. Lining up the teleconnections and keeping them in the direction they appear to be heading next week will def go a long way to giving the east a cold pattern right off the bat kicking off meteorological winter. The return of significant blocking in the NAO/AO realm really saved us last winter against a pattern on the Pac/western US side that was rarely favorable. So one thing I’m looking for as a key to success of consistent cold winter weather this winter is having the favorable Pacific/Western US pattern as I wouldn’t trust depending on seeing the kind of long lasting anomalous -NAO we saw last year. 

I should have said MagLosatoa 2021 storm as I now remember you did throw out that GFS earlier.  Ha. 

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