pasnownut Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, Thursday is the big question mark right now. But as Tim mentioned, the warmth could come right back again for Fri and Sat before the real cold front comes through. Going to be an interesting temp week. A few of the later week days have records in the low 70's...may have to keep an eye on that. Look at the ensemble loops pal....IF GFS suite has a clue...it says big blue trough building in the east. Its a tough call as to which models to go w/ for sure, but I'd lean to ens, at D8ish stuff. JMO's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: If either of you (or anyone else) watched the show "Monk" that was on years ago - those who know me best call me Adrian. YEP I liked that show. I too have some of his "quirky" tendencies.....with 1/2 the smarts......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Consensus I've heard is: Detroit 27 Steelers 24 Book it... Detroit is not winning a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Look at the ensemble loops pal....IF GEF suite has a clue...it says big blue trough building in the east. Its a tough call as to which models to go w/ for sure, but I'd lean to ens, at D8ish stuff. JMO's. Me Like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Look at the ensemble loops pal....IF GEF suite has a clue...it says big blue trough building in the east. Its a tough call as to which models to go w/ for sure, but I'd lean to ens, at D8ish stuff. JMO's. I looked at every op (Icon 2 days, it did not go to the weekend, GFS, Euro and CMC) and each has 3 days of 60 and above at MDT next week though how they get there is a bit different in that the CMC and Euro sink the warm front south on Thursday only to lift it back up for part of the weekend and Friday while the GFS pushes primary front through much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I looked at every op (Icon 2 days, it did not go to the weekend, GFS, Euro and CMC) and each has 3 days of 60 and above at MDT next week though how they get there is a bit different in that the CMC and Euro sink the warm front south on Thursday only to lift it back up for part of the weekend and Friday while the GFS pushes primary front through much faster. When is the strong cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: When is the strong cold front? Its Friday on the GFS and later Sat on the CMC and Euro. Totally different evolutions from the two camps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Detroit is not winning a game. You haven't spent enough time watching Pittsburgh against horrible teams. I was at the PITT - Tampa game IN Pittsburgh in 2014. Tampa finished the year 2-14 AND had to start their back up QB that game due to injuries. Tampa Bay won. I will be shocked if the Lions don't win a game this year. It took a freaking miracle kick for them to lose to the Ravens for crying out loud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Its Friday on the GFS and later Sat on the CMC and Euro. Totally different evolutions from the two camps. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Thanks! The CMC is technically not showing it at 240 hours now that I look so I guess Sunday there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: You haven't spent enough time watching Pittsburgh against horrible teams. I was at the PITT - Tampa game IN Pittsburgh in 2014. Tampa finished the year 2-14 AND had to start their back up QB that game due to injuries. Tampa Bay won. I will be shocked if the Lions don't win a game this year. It took a freaking miracle kick for them to lose to the Ravens for crying out loud. Understood my sister is a big Steeler fan. I think the Steelers still win, keep Detroit losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The CMC is technically not showing it at 240 hours now that I look so I guess Sunday there. Yep different camps for sure, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Sunny 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I looked at every op (Icon 2 days, it did not go to the weekend, GFS, Euro and CMC) and each has 3 days of 60 and above at MDT next week though how they get there is a bit different in that the CMC and Euro sink the warm front south on Thursday only to lift it back up for part of the weekend and Friday while the GFS pushes primary front through much faster. Not disagreeing w/ your assessment, but I'm just suggesting that any Op run at 7+ days needs viewed w/ a notable dose of skepticism. Thats all. Op runs still capable of notable swings at 5+ lead time. For me 5+ is almost always more Ens over Op runs and to that end, 7-10 is really my Ens window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Not disagreeing w/ your assessment, but I'm just suggesting that any Op run at 7+ days needs viewed w/ a notable dose of skepticism. Thats all. Op runs still capable of notable swings at 5+ lead time. For me 5+ is almost always more Ens over Op runs and to that end, 7-10 is really my Ens window. No doubt. I am just not a big ensemble fan. It just adds another "entity" into the convo. It is a blend of all of the different versions of that model. Great for trend watching though. But not so great for looking at temps in a specific locale...in my opinion. But the swings are definitely more subtle vs. Op's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 First snow maker of the season? From Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 56 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep different camps for sure, For MDT, the 12Z GFS sort of drove its tent stakes deep but did concede a bit on main frontal passage over to Sat AM instead of Friday. Before that it has 3 days with highs in the low to mid 60's and one day in the upper 60's....extrapolating out the 18Z temps. Cooler air not far away so Indian Summer is on the map but could be squashed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 It doesn't make it falls apart but our Friend @TimB84 would have some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Then we go to a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: Enough to plow in Montague NY. I've stayed there quite a few times, and if ever there is a place that it wants to snow....this is the spot. http://www.northernchateau.com/camgd.php?updatefreq=5&camsite=59&cam=1 Ain't nowhere like the Tug Hill Plateau. Ain't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Increasing chances that I'll see my first snow later next week. If I don't in Pittsburgh, I'll have a much better chance crossing the Laurels on the way home Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Increasing chances that I'll see my first snow later next week. If I don't in Pittsburgh, I'll have a much better chance crossing the Laurels on the way home Monday. You'll see it in the laurels, and I'll see it in NC Pa as I'll be in the mountains much of next week. Cabin is in good spot for upslope events off the lakes. If look holds should feel like early winter....NW flow should keep that cloudy/cold look anyway (in Mtns). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Increasing chances that I'll see my first snow later next week. If I don't in Pittsburgh, I'll have a much better chance crossing the Laurels on the way home Monday. It can be a different world sometimes when you're traveling westbound and come up out of that tunnel into Somerset County, leaving behind the lowlands and all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It can be a different world sometimes when you're traveling westbound and come up out of that tunnel into Somerset County, leaving behind the lowlands and all. You got that right! I left Pittsburgh on a Monday after a game at the end of October in 2012...little east cost storm named Sandy was making some noise in these here parts. Anyway, it was a tricky drive up around Somerset coming east that Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 EC for Wednesday. This will be low 70's at MDT if clouds do not save the day. The record for Nov 10th is 76 in...drumroll.....2020. Of course the EC overdoes it sometimes so a caveat with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, paweather said: Several days into November and 20% of the state is still at peak color. That can’t be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Several days into November and 20% of the state is still at peak color. That can’t be good. Our color here is wood. The tropical storm winds last week took many of the colorful leaves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: EC for Wednesday. This will be low 70's at MDT if clouds do not save the day. The record for Nov 10th is 76 in...drumroll.....2020. Of course the EC overdoes it sometimes so a caveat with that. Thursday warmth also shifted about 200 miles further north on this EC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Thursday warmth also shifted about 200 miles further north on this EC run. Yea, especially out your way. Could be some southwest PA 70's verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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