Central PA - Fall 2021

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Coming soon to Lowes....to accommodate our new Summer in fall, winter in spring lifestyle.  One device does it all.

 

 

 

Toro.  Good brand 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Toro.  Good brand 

Someone mowing in pants and wingtips demands only the best. 

[Itstrainingtime]

@Newman - I think you are one of the student mets putting out forecasts for MU, and I see that the official MU Winter Forecast is coming out literally right now - what is the overall sense of your group for the upcoming winter? (if you don't mind sharing) 

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Newman - I think you are one of the student mets putting out forecasts for MU, and I see that the official MU Winter Forecast is coming out literally right now - what is the overall sense of your group for the upcoming winter? (if you don't mind sharing) 

Can you get a copy of the report?

[Bubbler86]

No precip above NC on the GFS for Thur Night. 

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am going at least 1/4" in that one :-) 

Yeah, thats true but I called it a T to be safe.

 

46-47  on car thermo at lunch here in etown.  

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Yeah, thats true but I called it a T to be safe.

 

46-47  on car thermo at lunch here in etown.  

Nooners and still drizzle here.  42. 

[pasnownut]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Nooners and still drizzle here.  42. 

was looking at 511 cams to see if your western pals might have gotten some flakes, but couldnt find any.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

was looking at 511 cams to see if your western pals might have gotten some flakes, but couldnt find any.  

Yea, not here.  Maybe out in Mag land but may be too warm above even there. 

[Itstrainingtime]

20 minutes ago, paweather said:

Can you get a copy of the report?

Warmer than normal, below normal snowfall...

[Itstrainingtime]

Forecast risks:

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Forecast risks:

 

As hard as forecasting is I do have to say that those two panels basically just said "Not so good snow wise...unless it is good".  No offense to your posts. 

 

 

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Warmer than normal, below normal snowfall...

Man this is terrible!

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

As hard as forecasting is I do have to say that those two panels basically just said "Not so good snow wise...unless it is good".  No offense to your posts. 

 

 

Understood. Just passing along the requested information.  

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Man this is terrible!

Little too early to say that? I mean, he's a pro met for a reason. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Little too early to say that? I mean, he's a pro met for a reason. 

Yes and that is why it is terrible. This winter doesn't look good.

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

They were considered but fell short.  

Did not realize Tobias was covid related.  

[paweather]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did not realize Tobias was covid related.  

Yep out several games. 

[pasnownut]

55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

As hard as forecasting is I do have to say that those two panels basically just said "Not so good snow wise...unless it is good".  No offense to your posts. 

 

 

I was just thinking the same.  The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part.  That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating.  Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie).  I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year.  No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise.

edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

[canderson]

49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Little too early to say that? I mean, he's a pro met for a reason. 

He was referring to what's forecast, not the forecasters.

 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I was just thinking the same.  The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part.  That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating.  Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie).  I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year.  No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise.

edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

Elliott's?

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/about/index.php

 

[Bubbler86]

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I was just thinking the same.  The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part.  That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating.  Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie).  I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year.  No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise.

edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

 

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Elliott's?

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/about/index.php

 

Yes, Kyle Elliott. Horst retired over a year ago. Elliott came to MU from AccuWeather (I believe) 

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, canderson said:

He was referring to what's forecast, not the forecasters.

 

Okay, that makes sense. I should have assumed that. Sometimes I'm way too literal. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Hey, I posted the maps for 2 reasons:

1) It was requested for me to do so.

2) It was a winter forecast from a pro met. I thought it was at least worth a read. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Warmer than normal, below normal snowfall...

Well they sure covered all their bases didn't they!? 

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hey, I posted the maps for 2 reasons:

1) It was requested for me to do so.

2) It was a winter forecast from a pro met. I thought it was at least worth a read. 

The info should have been posted.  We just all have opinions.  LOL 

[Bubbler86]

The king is not relenting.

 

[Jns2183]

Well they sure covered all their bases didn't they!? 

Truthfully I thought that was an extremely detailed winter forecast. When you have average snowfall as low as we do and the fact that one major storm can account for 80%+ of snowfall and the fact of how hard it is to predict those storms even 72hours out let alone months I have considerably more respect for forecast as detailed as this. With the high variability in accumulations we have between storms and between +\- 25 miles of any location maybe the best way to judge forecast would be if they issued #of storms between an accumulation range (I.e 1-3,3-6,6-9,9-12,12-15,15-18) and there confidence percentage so that by taking the median multiplied by number by % percentage confidence they come up with snowfall.


.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Elliott's?

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/about/index.php

 

truth told, that risk part didnt sound like horst.  He ususally throw it out there and sees what sticks.  Glad to hear it wasnt him.  He's better than that.