Itstrainingtime Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Probably deserves mention that the CMC was the first model I saw that predicted the Monday SLP would traverse well north of us vs down through the Southern Mid-Atlantic. Other models have trended in this direction and it sets up the chance of a record high on Monday as the S/W flow ahead of the cold front streams mid to upper 70's weather near or over the LSV. I've been quietly watching that time period for another opportunity to make a run towards 80. Not out of the question at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've been quietly watching that time period for another opportunity to make a run towards 80. Not out of the question at all. Certainly a chance with the 80's so close by. What I am most impressed with is the CMC sniffing it out and seeing the GFS and Euro bend to its will. Keeps things interesting and shows you cannot dismiss anything with a definitive wave of the keyboard. GFS concurs now as well. Monday Afternoon from 10/22 12Z GFS Monday Afternoon from the 10/20 12Z Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Certainly a chance with the 80's so close by. What I am most impressed with is the CMC sniffing it out and seeing the GFS and Euro bend to its will. Keeps things interesting and shows you cannot dismiss anything with a definitive wave of the keyboard. GFS concurs now as well. Monday Afternoon from 10/22 12Z GFS Monday Afternoon from the 10/20 12Z Run Big bust potential alert! Forecasting temps that day will not be for the faint of heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 A much more seasonable 63 here today with more clouds than sun right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Big bust potential alert! Forecasting temps that day will not be for the faint of heart. This coldinista thinks higher will be the better forecast. There is a limit on it as its not much over 80 in South VA. The HIA can only do so much to the LSV, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: A much more seasonable 63 here today with more clouds than sun right now. Sunny, stiff breeze and 62 here. A rare Summer 2021 day where I am close to the central LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This coldinista thinks higher will be the better forecast. There is a limit on it as its not much over 80 in South VA. The HIA can only do so much to the LSV, right? Yes. I think for now to anticipate Monday being a day we reach the 70s is solid thinking. Don't get any more specific than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sunny, stiff breeze and 62 here. A rare Summer 2021 day where I am close to the central LSV. Sounds like much less in the way of sun over this way which probably accounts for some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sounds like much less in the way of sun over this way which probably accounts for some of that. Last year we were much closer on quite a few more days. I am actually East of parts of the LSV though officially I am not in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: This coldinista thinks higher will be the better forecast. There is a limit on it as its not much over 80 in South VA. The HIA can only do so much to the LSV, right? But could the warmer start to the week make a difference when it comes to that all time October record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: But could the warmer start to the week make a difference when it comes to that all time October record? Yea, it will help keep up the averages a bit though it would be surrounded by near or below average days....just a better chance to get to that +6.5 if that is the number. If you look at Sunday's panel the high at MDT is below average but you do not have to go too far south for 70's. But as you alluded too before, near average is going to chip down that postive departure as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 28 minutes ago, TimB84 said: But could the warmer start to the week make a difference when it comes to that all time October record? Outside of departures, I think the warmest average Oct temp at MDT was 62 in 2007. Right now MDT is at 65.2. On this date (10/22) in 2007 MDT, was at 65.1 so very similar up to this point. The lows over the last 4 October days of 2007 saved the month end number from being much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 Monday's forecast will be epically wrong ... either CTP gives in or the models are 20+ degrees off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, canderson said: Monday's forecast will be epically wrong ... either CTP gives in or the models are 20+ degrees off lol. I am surprised its taken this long to update. The last GFS to show Monday as a chilly day was 18Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Western MD looking to become part of WV. If that happened, paw paw would be even closer to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 The CMC coup is getting more and more "dry" for early next week. Just scattered showers from what was once FFW level rains. Not only would some push to break 80 (which would crush the 75 record at MDT), we are being Miller B'd out of significant rain. Then the CMC brings an app runner the following weekend. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro'd with a 968 mb bomb Hopefully many more during winter Euro with 2 sub 990 lows next 8 days You and I definitely need a further south tuck :-). Voyager has the plow out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Don't worry.. some ensembles have a tucked low off OC and Delaware. Looking further out on the Eps .... AO goes negative around October 31 st into early November . Maybe our 1st true late Autumn airmass coming I saw @Blizzard of 93 lurking before. Maybe this gets him to chip in like he usually does on Sat AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Also to address the elephant in the room, the Sox choked. IMO, no other way to look at it. The swings they were taking last night were one of a team that lost confidence. Stro's played the same through the whole series which made them the best team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Also to address the elephant in the room, the Sox choked. IMO, no other way to look at it. The swings they were taking last night were one of a team that lost confidence. Stro's played the same through the whole series which made them the best team. It wasn’t a choke. They ran into some pitchers that threw career best games. They had a great season and far surpassed my expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Also to address the elephant in the room, the Sox choked. IMO, no other way to look at it. The swings they were taking last night were one of a team that lost confidence. Stro's played the same through the whole series which made them the best team. Astros were the better team. Red Sox didn’t choke. Astros rookie pitcher dominated them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw @Blizzard of 93 lurking before. Maybe this gets him to chip in like he usually does on Sat AM. The telleconnections are starting to go in the right direction starting next week. The EPO going negative and the PNA going positive will help to move toward a better pattern for those that want colder weather with storms, that hopefully will turn wintry as the calendar advances. Here is the EPO from the Euro ensemble & GEFS last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 The NAO going neutral to slightly negative will help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Here is the PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Also to address the elephant in the room, the Sox choked. IMO, no other way to look at it. The swings they were taking last night were one of a team that lost confidence. Stro's played the same through the whole series which made them the best team. Trust me, what happened in Philly last night was the true definition of a choke. The last 6 minutes were an embarrassment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Now, let's see what happens this afternoon. Fall weather has arrived here at the Beav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Trust me, what happened in Philly last night was the true definition of a choke. The last 6 minutes were an embarrassment. They still need a closer. They had the same problem in the playoffs last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 @Itstrainingtime The Flyers are at home tonight at 7 pm. Have you considered attending a triple header this weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Trust me, what happened in Philly last night was the true definition of a choke. The last 6 minutes were an embarrassment. I was stunned when I woke up and saw they lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 I'm glad we finally got a chilly fall day even though it's lightly raining off and on. Though 56 isn't that far off from where it should be at this time lol I'm just annoyed most of the month felt like early september instead. I was dreading the first 2 weeks of october being like the other few times from the past few years but it was worse than I imagined and won't stop lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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