Blizzard of 93 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 10 hours ago, pasnownut said: I saw a couple hints of frost on shaded grass and a couple rooftops on way to work this am. Not heavy whatsoever, but after almost 53 years of searching for frozen particles....it was undeniably frost. Almost got out of SUV to touch it...I'm whacked like that. Congrats on the Frost sighting! I am looking forward to scraping frost off of the windshield one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: How much for Pillow? With a 24 degree temp drop, anything is possible in pillow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 I’m going to go try to find a snow map. Hopefully I’ll be back on soon with my findings… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: How much for Pillow? Hopefully none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: So you dropped 24 degrees? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 50 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m going to go try to find a snow map. Hopefully I’ll be back on soon with my findings… The best that I could find was the Euro Weeklies that run through early December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 42 this morning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: 42 this morning here 45 here now. Got down to 42 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 6Z GFS: MDT gets around 60 Sat and Sun (probably over with HIA) and then stays between 49 and 40 from Sunday evening until Thursday afternoon. Temp does not actually breach 60 until Nov 3rd. Would put a large dent into the positive departures (at least the high parts). Lots of rain next week helping to minimalize temp movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 6Z GFS: MDT gets around 60 Sat and Sun (probably over with HIA) and then stays between 49 and 40 from Sunday evening until Thursday afternoon. Temp does not actually breach 60 until Nov 3rd. Would put a large dent into the positive departures (at least the high parts). Lots of rain next week helping to minimalize temp movement. The models really, really backed off on the northward extent of the heat next week. And it’s not just the GFS, the Euro did too, albeit to a lesser extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 45 here now. Got down to 42 earlier. 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: 42 this morning here I only dropped to 48. Judging from some of the overnight IR images, it looks like we had a narrow blanket of clouds move area this area for a good portion of the late night, would certainly explain the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: The models really, really backed off on the northward extent of the heat next week. And it’s not just the GFS, the Euro did too, albeit to a lesser extent. Yep. its like we almost have to ignore the extremes and go with middle ground forecasting. Your neck of the woods never really gets above norm's in a quick run through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Sunny and 58 here now. I'm going to make another run at 80 today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 6Z GFS: MDT gets around 60 Sat and Sun (probably over with HIA) and then stays between 49 and 40 from Sunday evening until Thursday afternoon. Temp does not actually breach 60 until Nov 3rd. Would put a large dent into the positive departures (at least the high parts). Lots of rain next week helping to minimalize temp movement. Just how much rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Just how much rain? That is how much. 1-2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sunny and 58 here now. I'm going to make another run at 80 today... It will be interesting if we ever find out what is going on. NWS and all models understate your temps almost every day. Forecasts are fine in most areas away from the I81/I83 corridor close to the Burg. You guys should be be tying or beating DCA every day. LOL. HRRR says you get low 70's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sunny and 58 here now. I'm going to make another run at 80 today... No 80's! *** 53 Sunny here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is how much. 1-2" Probably add on a little bit for Pillow, the rain, heat, and cold capital of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sunny and 58 here now. I'm going to make another run at 80 today... Aggressive statement sir! I like your boldness. MOS guidance doesn't like us to get above low to mid 70s. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Aggressive statement sir! I like your boldness. MOS guidance doesn't like us to get above low to mid 70s. We shall see. The Carlisle/Camp Hill/Capital District beats MOS guidance and NWS Zones by 4-8 degrees most sunny days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It will be interesting if we ever find out what is going on. NWS and all models understate your temps almost every day. Forecasts are fine in most areas away from the I81/I83 corridor close to the Burg. You guys should be be tying or beating DCA every day. LOL. HRRR says you get low 70's today. I most likely have a better chance tomorrow. I woke up today feeling like an overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I most likely have a better chance tomorrow. I woke up today feeling like an overachiever. NO 80's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Just broke 48 here. LOL. 70 is going to be tough today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just broke 48 here. LOL. 70 is going to be tough today. 56 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: 56 right now. 55 here at 10. Raised several degrees the last 30 min. 63 at MDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 12Z Nam and HRRR both suggest 70-75 for the LSV today and tomorrow. So I am going to guess 74 at MDT today and 76 tomorrow. Friday stays in the 50's at MDT and Sun the 40's (on the Nam). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 65 at 11. Was a great morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 State College specific as to the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Busy in training all day today, quick check at lunchtime and I'm already up to 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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