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Central PA - Fall 2021

canderson

By canderson,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035
MAG5035

It’s likely that the severe aspect of the line likely won’t hold across the mountains. The big parameter with this line driving into western PA with what appears to be multiple couplets (probable QLCS

2001kx
2001kx
MAG5035
MAG5035

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it.  This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 6:43 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

More sun, more warmth. 54 now and climbing quickly. 

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You are back!  

 

Just looked at the EC and have to laugh...after the CNN article (granted it did say week not just Thankgiving day), the new EC has the 540 line well back into Canada, in the East, for Thanksgiving day.  

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted

And the new weather director at MU emphatically put the kabosh on snow chances for next week:

  1. (3/3) So, I think the ultimate outcome is that a cold front brings showers to the mid-Atlantic Sunday night into Monday, with any snow confined to northern New England and areas near the Great Lakes. Colder for Tuesday with wind gusts of 40-50 mph and *maybe* a few snowflakes..

  2.  

    (1/3) There's been a lot of unwarranted hype in the last day or two with talk of a major, early-season snowstorm in parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast early next week.. so I figured it was time to "chime in" and give my thoughts as a "voice of reason."

  3.  

    (2/3) Late-November climatology tells us that it's rare for a major snowfall to impact the Lower Susquehanna Valley and I-95 corridor from New York to Washington, D.C., and large-scale features in next week's weather pattern aren't in the right places for this rule to be broken.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 6:47 PM, Bubbler86 said:

You are back!  

 

Just looked at the EC and have to laugh...after the CNN article (granted it did say week not just Thankgiving day), the new EC has the 540 line well back into Canada, in the East, for Thanksgiving day.  

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Work keeps getting in my way of what's really important.

See my post above about next week. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 6:48 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Work keeps getting in my way of what's really important.

See my post above about next week. 

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I saw that.  EC wise, with the early next week low forming well East of the trough swinging in, its going to be a cold chilly few days then back to 50's and 60's.   Storm tracking through the GL's. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 6:51 PM, Bubbler86 said:

I saw that.  EC wise, with the early next week low forming well East of the trough swinging in, its going to be a cold chilly few days then back to 50's and 60's.   Storm tracking through the GL's. 

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He said a few days ago that given the overall pattern, he doesn't anticipate snow locally until sometime in December. At this point that's probably a pretty good guess. Time will tell. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 7:05 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

He said a few days ago that given the overall pattern, he doesn't anticipate snow locally until sometime in December. At this point that's probably a pretty good guess. Time will tell. 

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Storm track to our west in November is getting sick with no snow weather.  Flash between chills and warm up's. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 4:44 PM, Bubbler86 said:

51 in Rouzerville at 15 before nooners.  Parsing over the WU data shows the wedge of cool air trying to hang on for Central and Eastern LSV.  Upper 50's just West of Chambersburg. 

image.png.4268d2ea31540e9594617b64b8b2b219.png

 

 

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It's always that wedge NE of the Catoctin Mts. Wish Site R would keep their ASOS up more often, them and the Mid Atlantic Soaring Center sites provide some really great information.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 7:05 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

He said a few days ago that given the overall pattern, he doesn't anticipate snow locally until sometime in December. At this point that's probably a pretty good guess. Time will tell. 

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Good guess or logical climo one??  That's like saying I think I'll need to pee after a 6 pack of beer.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 7:02 PM, paweather said:

Just one bad run.

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Not sure if any were buyin into the early week mauler, as the pattern has been and looks progressive until later next week.  Then we have a legit window of opportunity for something to come at/under us, and not be a post frontal pop.   and even then if one believes an op run, we scorch again before the mauler i shared above takes a run at us.  

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 7:46 PM, pasnownut said:

Not sure if any were buyin into the early week mauler, as the pattern has been and looks progressive until later next week.  Then we have a legit window of opportunity for something to come at/under us, and not be a post frontal pop.   and even then if one believes an op run, we scorch again before the mauler i shared above takes a run at us.  

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Yeah going to be a lot of ups and downs temps second half of Nov into Dec.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 7:10 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Storm track to our west in November is getting sick with no snow weather.  Flash between chills and warm up's. 

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we've been seein this for the last few years....and it still is my biggest frustration, as it is seemingly the "default" winter pattern, unless we get some help from tellies.  Late next week shows this w/ NAO and the maps respond accordingly.  Hope its not just a brief window, but more of a sustained one.  Would love to once again see early cold when some said December would go warm.  

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 8:11 PM, pasnownut said:

Not tryin to be a d!ck....just sayin...the limb was a rather large one to go out on.....that's all..

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Understood. It was just a few years ago we had a significant snow in November, and given the hype started about next week, I think his point was simply "hey, looking at the pattern for next week, it just doesn't support snow here, or anywhere close to here".

I thought it was a good thing to say - there are probably people in the area that believe that we're getting dumped on next week. I know my daughter was texting me about it. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/17/2021 at 8:20 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Understood. It was just a few years ago we had a significant snow in November, and given the hype started about next week, I think his point was simply "hey, looking at the pattern for next week, it just doesn't support snow here, or anywhere close to here".

I thought it was a good thing to say - there are probably people in the area that believe that we're getting dumped on next week. I know my daughter was texting me about it. 

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No i get it, but just reading the wording made my type what i did, but in summary...........

BLAME THE MEDIA??

I'm down w/ that.  Fin hypsters.

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