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Central PA - Fall 2021

canderson

By canderson,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035
MAG5035

It’s likely that the severe aspect of the line likely won’t hold across the mountains. The big parameter with this line driving into western PA with what appears to be multiple couplets (probable QLCS

2001kx
2001kx
MAG5035
MAG5035

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it.  This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 1:55 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh my yes! Mid November to the end of the year is my absolute favorite time of the year for many reasons, but very early darkness is right at the top. To me, early sunset = wintery feel. 

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That is true but it is the end of evening tennis/working outside and feeling like you can accomplish anything after work.    Just personal opinion. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 1:56 PM, Bubbler86 said:

That is true but it is the end of evening tennis/working outside and feeling like you can accomplish anything after work.    Just personal opinion. 

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Completely understand - this is the hardest time of the year to get our river walks in, which are super important to us. Definitely some schedule challenges right now. 

Snow in December...I love the fact that if it stops around 3pm, we only have another hour tops before melting is halted. I hate March snow when it stops mid afternoon and you have to agonize for several more hours of melting before the sun sets. 

Yes, I'm weird. I know this. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
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  On 11/4/2021 at 2:01 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Completely understand - this is the hardest time of the year to get our river walks in, which are super important to us. Definitely some schedule challenges right now. 

Snow in December...I love the fact that if it stops around 3pm, we only have another hour tops before melting is halted. I hate March snow when it stops mid afternoon and you have to agonize for several more hours of melting before the sun sets. 

Yes, I'm weird. I know this. 

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I totally understand the March thing.   Not only dealing with the longer "daytime" in March but also the warm mongers on parade,  giddy with enthusiasm that spring is near, are down talking the snow as well.  Ha.   Plus in Dec we have the holiday's in front of us when in March we have summer in front of us. 

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TimB

TimB

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  On 11/4/2021 at 2:00 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Unfortunately for cold mongers, MDT is in the Mid 60's around late lunch time 3 days on the GFS.  All are potential 70 days verbatim.    CMC as well though different days. 

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What’s the general consensus here? Early week warmup ->weak cold frontal passage ->late week warmup -> decisive cold frontal passage?

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
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  On 11/4/2021 at 2:07 PM, Bubbler86 said:

I totally understand the March thing.   Not only dealing with the longer "daytime" in March but also the warm mongers on parade,  giddy with enthusiasm that spring is near, are down talking the snow as well.  Ha.   Plus in Dec we have the holiday's in front of us when in March we have summer in front of us. 

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Yes...I truly do love snow, but unlike some, there are times when I like it a whole lot better than others. 4" of snow in December to me is better than triple that in mid March. Not that I don't get excited about snow in March, but there's that realization that you better enjoy it immediately 'cause it won't be hanging around long. Snow early in the season has the advantage of shorter days and low sun angle, throw in the holidays and it's pretty special. (and the hope that there's more to come)

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

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  On 11/4/2021 at 2:43 PM, TimB84 said:

EC keeps PA on the good side of a warm front Thursday:

 

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So does the CMC but then Sat both CMC and Euro tout higher temps again before the next front so its along the lines of your other post...a bit up and down...where as the GFS is 3 straight days of warm. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 1:55 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh my yes! Mid November to the end of the year is my absolute favorite time of the year for many reasons, but very early darkness is right at the top. To me, early sunset = wintery feel. 

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I dont know why some of us wierdos love a dull and cool/cold late november day....but man I sure do.  For me I think it's the lead up to the holiday season....and the best time for snow to stick.  I know it defy's normal thinking of bright and sunny days, but it's probably my most enjoyable time of year. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 2:27 PM, TimB84 said:

What’s the general consensus here? Early week warmup ->weak cold frontal passage ->late week warmup -> decisive cold frontal passage?

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I will go out on the limb and try to interpret what the models are suggesting.   MDT hits 65 at least twice next week.  Forecast is locked in (not locked in to be right just locked in). 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 2:36 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes...I truly do love snow, but unlike some, there are times when I like it a whole lot better than others. 4" of snow in December to me is better than triple that in mid March. Not that I don't get excited about snow in March, but there's that realization that you better enjoy it immediately 'cause it won't be hanging around long. Snow early in the season has the advantage of shorter days and low sun angle, throw in the holidays and it's pretty special. (and the hope that there's more to come)

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We were cut from the same cloth...its how I've always thought about late fall/early winter.  Its the best

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 2:51 PM, Bubbler86 said:

So does the CMC but then Sat both CMC and Euro tout higher temps again before the next front so its along the lines of your other post...a bit up and down...where as the GFS is 3 straight days of warm. 

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GFS Op vs ensemble

gfs_T2m_us_31.png

GEPS is the warmer of the 2 ens, so I put it here to show that I'm not trying to wishcast.  GEFS is 49 over our area.

gfs-ens_T2m_us_31.png

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

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Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 3:04 PM, pasnownut said:

GFS Op vs ensemble

 

GEPS is the warmer of the 2 ens, so I put it here to show that I'm not trying to wishcast.  GEFS is 49 over our area.

 

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Yea, Thursday is the big question mark right now.  But as Tim mentioned, the warmth could come right back again for Fri and Sat before the real cold front comes through.  Going to be an interesting temp week.   A few of the later week days have records in the low 70's...may have to keep an eye on that. 

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 2:36 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes...I truly do love snow, but unlike some, there are times when I like it a whole lot better than others. 4" of snow in December to me is better than triple that in mid March. Not that I don't get excited about snow in March, but there's that realization that you better enjoy it immediately 'cause it won't be hanging around long. Snow early in the season has the advantage of shorter days and low sun angle, throw in the holidays and it's pretty special. (and the hope that there's more to come)

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  On 11/4/2021 at 2:59 PM, pasnownut said:

We were cut from the same cloth...its how I've always thought about late fall/early winter.  Its the best

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I'm the same, Since i was a youngster. Nothing like being in the woods on a cool late fall day, early winter. It even smells different right?  Toss in a December 5th snow and we're golden!

As much as I'm a summer hang by the pool, by far Thanksgiving and Christmas are hands down the best. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
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  On 11/4/2021 at 2:56 PM, pasnownut said:

I dont know why some of us wierdos love a dull and cool/cold late november day....but man I sure do.  For me I think it's the lead up to the holiday season....and the best time for snow to stick.  I know it defy's normal thinking of bright and sunny days, but it's probably my most enjoyable time of year. 

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Yep...

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 3:13 PM, sauss06 said:

 

I'm the same, Since i was a youngster. Nothing like being in the woods on a cool late fall day, early winter. It even smells different right?  Toss in a December 5th snow and we're golden!

As much as I'm a summer hang by the pool, by far Thanksgiving and Christmas are hands down the best. 

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See....told ya I'm in good company.  Nothing like raking(mowing) leaves on a fall day w/ a beer that stays cold (actually they never get warm in my hands :) ) or bringing wood down.  Going in for homemade soup and watching a game late afternoon....Its the good stuff IMO.

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 3:00 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Just a couple of Neanderthals?  LOL 

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  On 11/4/2021 at 3:02 PM, pasnownut said:

then i consider myself in good company....

I've got thick skin, can take a joke, and have been called far worse.  NBD

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If either of you (or anyone else) watched the show "Monk" that was on years ago - those who know me best call me Adrian. :) 

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted
  On 11/4/2021 at 3:19 PM, pasnownut said:

See....told ya I'm in good company.  Nothing like raking(mowing) leaves on a fall day w/ a beer that stays cold (actually they never get warm in my hands :) ) or bringing wood down.  Going in for homemade soup and watching a game late afternoon....Its the good stuff IMO.

 

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Absofrickinglutly....................this weekend is the beginning of the end.

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