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Central PA - Fall 2021

canderson

By canderson,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035
MAG5035

It’s likely that the severe aspect of the line likely won’t hold across the mountains. The big parameter with this line driving into western PA with what appears to be multiple couplets (probable QLCS

2001kx
2001kx
MAG5035
MAG5035

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it.  This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 6:52 PM, Jns2183 said:


Truthfully I thought that was an extremely detailed winter forecast. When you have average snowfall as low as we do and the fact that one major storm can account for 80%+ of snowfall and the fact of how hard it is to predict those storms even 72hours out let alone months I have considerably more respect for forecast as detailed as this. With the high variability in accumulations we have between storms and between +\- 25 miles of any location maybe the best way to judge forecast would be if they issued #of storms between an accumulation range (I.e 1-3,3-6,6-9,9-12,12-15,15-18) and there confidence percentage so that by taking the median multiplied by number by % percentage confidence they come up with snowfall.


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I dont think many are questioning the forecast part...as much as all of the ways out in the risk part.  In fairness if those risks were applied in many locals, one could have a "way out" of not verifying.  IMO that risk part is akin to them being wrong half of the time and still having a job, if ya know what I'm getting at.  

I wish I could go at my sales projections like that....but I can't.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 6:58 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Depends on how much sun we get during the day, how long it stays close to that temp, and how many nights it's THAT cold. If we have like a 42/19 split with full sun during the day...probably not. 

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are you part Neanderthal?  lol

I like the cold, but my new woodstove has been fired up 3 evenings already.  

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canderson

canderson

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  On 11/2/2021 at 8:04 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Canderson has already apologized to Iowa State.  :-) 

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Texas plays her, I mean them, this weekend.

Unfortunately Texas is a bit busy with a coach's stripper (her name is Pole Assassin, can't make it up) honeypot monkey that attacked and severely injured a trick or treater. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 8:27 PM, canderson said:

Texas plays her, I mean them, this weekend.

Unfortunately Texas is a bit busy with a coach's stripper (her name is Pole Assassin, can't make it up) honeypot monkey that attacked and severely injured a trick or treater. 

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Pretty much every monkey is one bad moment away from ripping our skins off.  If we did not have guns, they could probably take over the planet in the future.  They should make a movie about that.  Pole Assassin....hmm.  That would be a cool name for a gymnast as well. 

 

 

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 8:27 PM, canderson said:

Texas plays her, I mean them, this weekend.

Unfortunately Texas is a bit busy with a coach's stripper (her name is Pole Assassin, can't make it up) honeypot monkey that attacked and severely injured a trick or treater. 

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Yep, the story of the year in college football, really. 

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Newman

Newman

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Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 4:04 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

@Newman - I think you are one of the student mets putting out forecasts for MU, and I see that the official MU Winter Forecast is coming out literally right now - what is the overall sense of your group for the upcoming winter? (if you don't mind sharing) 

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Yes I am very much involved with the MU Weather Information Center forecasts and what not, but I did not have any say in what Kyle Elliott was doing with the winter forecast. His general reasoning, however, is 2nd year Nina's with the SST regime we're in are close in similarity to 2011-12 and 2017-18. The MJO will likely spend the most time as well in the unfavorable phases due to the SST pattern. The biggest wild card, as he mentioned in his bullet points, is the chance for high latitude blocking. The QBO is in a strong easterly (negative) phase right now which favors blocking. There's a lot to consider in a winter like the one coming up, I'm glad I don't have to release any official forecasts myself! I think a 22-27" snowfall winter is reasonable

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 10:06 PM, Newman said:

Yes I am very much involved with the MU Weather Information Center forecasts and what not, but I did not have any say in what Kyle Elliott was doing with the winter forecast. His general reasoning, however, is 2nd year Nina's with the SST regime we're in are close in similarity to 2011-12 and 2017-18. The MJO will likely spend the most time as well in the unfavorable phases due to the SST pattern. The biggest wild card, as he mentioned in his bullet points, is the chance for high latitude blocking. The QBO is in a strong easterly (negative) phase right now which favors blocking. There's a lot to consider in a winter like the one coming up, I'm glad I don't have to release any official forecasts myself! I think a 22-27" snowfall winter is reasonable

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Thank you so much for responding and sharing your thoughts. I think Kyle's ideas make a ton of sense. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 11:19 PM, Atomixwx said:

Oh yeah? 

 

I had Henry Ruggs, III.

 

Sit down with your problems.

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  On 11/2/2021 at 10:21 PM, Bubbler86 said:

I just had two players on my fantasy team (football) test positive.    Covid is actually more severe and more of a disturbance this season than last.  Noah Fant and Lazard.

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My wife has Fant. I'm still looking for a back to go with Jonathan Taylor now that I've lost Henry.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
  On 11/2/2021 at 6:19 PM, Bubbler86 said:

The info should have been posted.  We just all have opinions.  LOL 

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These seasonal forecasts by pro mets & weather services are very well researched and informative. Their accuracy tends to not end up being too reliable. We have seen forecasts in previous years when an epic season is forecast and it turns out to be subpar. We have also seen forecasts for a below average snow season turn out to be a good winter. I enjoy reading these forecasts every year, but we always need to of course see how the season unfolds.

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