Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion

[jwilson]

First snow October 22nd.  Think we can lock that one in?

[KPITSnow]

This is honestly the most putrid early October weather I can remember.

[Ahoff]

35 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

This is honestly the most putrid early October weather I can remember.

Let’s get it out of the way before winter.  Plus I remember in 2007 it was near 90 for a few days.  That was worse, lol.

[PghPirates27]

Can't wait for this humidity to wind down! Crane flies are everywhere!

[TugHillMatt]

16 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

This is honestly the most putrid early October weather I can remember.

Wow, just checked your conditions for the past several days. 80 for highs and not getting below the mid 60s for lows. Summer in Fall....Bleck

[Ahoff]

Remember, it can and has been worse.

[KPITSnow]

7 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Remember, it can and has been worse.

True, but at least that pattern broke in a week. We are on a week of this and the pattern really isn’t going to change for at least another week if not longer.

 

Id take the above over this very prolonged stretch of summer like humidity and lows that resemble June. 

[TimB]

Quite the storm this evening. One of the better light shows this year.

[TimB]

48 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

True, but at least that pattern broke in a week. We are on a week of this and the pattern really isn’t going to change for at least another week if not longer.

 

Id take the above over this very prolonged stretch of summer like humidity and lows that resemble June. 

I don’t remember that warm stretch in ‘07 being anywhere near this humid either.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

True, but at least that pattern broke in a week. We are on a week of this and the pattern really isn’t going to change for at least another week if not longer.

 

Id take the above over this very prolonged stretch of summer like humidity and lows that resemble June. 

You’d take 6 consecutive days over 80 with 4 of them at 86 or higher with lows over 60?  And 9 consecutive days over 77, with likely high humidity over a couple weeks with 75-81?  Okay...

[Bubbler86]

6 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You’d take 6 consecutive days over 80 with 4 of them at 86 or higher with lows over 60?  And 9 consecutive days over 77, with likely high humidity over a couple weeks with 75-81?  Okay..

Same discussion in CPA forum.  Humidity stinks but seemingly more drama over it than is deserved.   

[TimB]

8 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You’d take 6 consecutive days over 80 with 4 of them at 86 or higher with lows over 60?  And 9 consecutive days over 77, with likely high humidity over a couple weeks with 75-81?  Okay...

Look at the diurnal range during that period in 2007. It generally ran around 25 degrees. That doesn’t scream high humidity to me.

I looked at the dewpoints during that stretch, and it looks like the last 2 days or so of the heat it went into the mid 60s. We’re already running a string longer than that.

[KPITSnow]

8 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You’d take 6 consecutive days over 80 with 4 of them at 86 or higher with lows over 60?  And 9 consecutive days over 77, with likely high humidity over a couple weeks with 75-81?  Okay...

100% yes. By the time this breaks we are looking at nearly 3 weeks of high humidity. Would much prefer about a week then fall weather.

[Ahoff]

6 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Look at the diurnal range during that period in 2007. It generally ran around 25 degrees. That doesn’t scream high humidity to me.

I looked at the dewpoints during that stretch, and it looks like the last 2 days or so of the heat it went into the mid 60s. We’re already running a string longer than that.

Well 87 screams near 90 to me, and that’s worse than 77 and humid in October.

[Ahoff]

6 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

100% yes. By the time this breaks we are looking at nearly 3 weeks of high humidity. Would much prefer about a week then fall weather.

Well next weekend looks to go average, for now.

[TimB]

30 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Well 87 screams near 90 to me, and that’s worse than 77 and humid in October.

The age-old debate of would you rather have a week of very uncomfortable weather or several weeks of somewhat uncomfortable weather?

[Ahoff]

5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The age-old debate of would you rather have a week of very uncomfortable weather or several weeks of somewhat uncomfortable weather?

Hands down upper 80s are worse than upper 70s in October.

[jwilson]

80s really aren't uncommon in October, at least not in modern climatology.  7 of the last 11 years have had at least one 80-degree day in October, but typically it's a few.

We were spoiled last year with the more "traditional" fall weather.  It was unlikely to repeat, at least not with regularity.  We'll have to relish the occasional odd year where it happens going forward.

[KPITSnow]

I mean if it was 75 with a low if 52 and dew points in the 40’s that would be awesome. It’s the 75 with lows barely dipping under 60 that are awful. 

[Ahoff]

I mean yeah it’s humid, but I guess after a full summer of it, when highs are only in the 70s it just doesn’t feel as bad.

Today was better though, cooler overall.

[PghPirates27]

Latest in the year we have gone without a temp lower than 40 degrees in the last 66 years.  Looks like it's going to be another week before we got a shot at it. Interesting that 4 of the last 5 years were the longest we have gone without hitting 40 or lower with the exception of 1955.

 

[TimB]

52 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Latest in the year we have gone without a temp lower than 40 degrees in the last 66 years.  Looks like it's going to be another week before we got a shot at it. Interesting that 4 of the last 5 years were the longest we have gone without hitting 40 or lower with the exception of 1955.

 

Median first freeze is about a week out. No signs of temperatures getting anywhere near freezing anytime soon.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Median first freeze is about a week out. No signs of temperatures getting anywhere near freezing anytime soon.

Early next week, the temps were flirting with the 30s, so not really that far away.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Early next week, the temps were flirting with the 30s, so not really that far away.

True, we really weren’t that far away from hitting 100 this past summer.

[Ahoff]

59 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

True, we really weren’t that far away from hitting 100 this past summer.

My point being that as it starts to flirt in the long range with the 30s gives rise to the possibility of going lower than models hint at now.  Of course if it ends up that we only bottom out at 42 in that stretch, that's not too close.  But saying no signs is not completely the case.  There are signs it could get close.  Will it?  We'll see.

[jwilson]

Saw this guy outside today.  Looks like a mild winter is incoming?  I've never tested this theory, but here's a good opportunity.

[Ahoff]

57 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Saw this guy outside today.  Looks like a mild winter is incoming?  I've never tested this theory, but here's a good opportunity.

I'll put my all black ones that I saw up against yours, lol.

Also, saw a mostly white one today, don't know what that means.

[donyewest]

20 hours ago, Ahoff said:

I'll put my all black ones that I saw up against yours, lol.

Yep, nearly all black up here in Butler too.

[TimB]

Looks like our low today will be 64. Warmest low 10/15 or later in the KPIT era.

Only 10/16/1928 (68), 10/17/1928 (67), and 11/1/1929 (65) have today beat.

[donyewest]

KPIT sent up another weather balloon, guess we're in a precarious spot today: 

 

Can't see the results yet on SPC but can see what it's sent back so far at: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

Heck, the dewpoint is 70 up here in Butler.  Could still see haze/fog until the sun came out around 11.

Edit: Nice, the pdf export seems to work for the sounding: http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=PDF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2021&MONTH=10&FROM=1512&TO=1600&STNM=72520