jwilson Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 That was an unexpected event. A tornado outbreak in late October isn't exactly typical. Seems we had some extra shear and helicity that was not predicted? Recency bias at work, but we appear to avoid the severe weather when there are actual watches in place. Stuff goes off when there's no expectation. I have friends near the Ross Park Mall and it looks like the rotation must have gone right over them. If there was a funnel, luckily it hadn't touched down (yet). There were also a couple other events to my south. Not sure what happened near McMurray whether it was a brief touchdown or a microburst. Definitely a tornado west of Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeefRichards Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Willow Rd & Lowry Lane, Hopewell Twp, Washington, Co. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 I read the SPC discussion around 6:30 while the warnings were still in Ohio and the SPC meso discussion said sundown would mean weakening. Lots of shear because of how the cold front was filling in after the earlier warm sector, occluding just up in Canada. Really surprised they didn't even issue a watch after there were warnings all across the line in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 Very Fall like day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 I read the SPC discussion around 6:30 while the warnings were still in Ohio and the SPC meso discussion said sundown would mean weakening. Lots of shear because of how the cold front was filling in after the earlier warm sector, occluding just up in Canada. Really surprised they didn't even issue a watch after there were warnings all across the line in Ohio.Interesting that they would mention weakening after sunset. I mean that is how it usually goes, but instability was never really a factor yesterday anyway. It was all about the wind shear. I’m sure the sunset could have caused slight weakening, but the main fuel for those storms was the shear . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 It’s looking very possible that our low of 37 the other day could be our only low in the 30s as we enter November. There have been 9 times in recorded history that the temperature hasn’t gotten to 36 or lower by the end of October, and only two at KPIT. Latest first 36 is 11/9/1902. The latest in the KPIT era? 11/5/1950. Let’s hope this winter is at least a little like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, TimB84 said: It’s looking very possible that our low of 37 the other day could be our only low in the 30s as we enter November. There have been 9 times in recorded history that the temperature hasn’t gotten to 36 or lower by the end of October, and only two at KPIT. Latest first 36 is 11/9/1902. The latest in the KPIT era? 11/5/1950. Let’s hope this winter is at least a little like that one. Didn’t we get three feet of snow around thanksgiving that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Didn’t we get three feet of snow around thanksgiving that year? Yes, and it’s the record winter for Pittsburgh overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Figures we were over the average the last few weeks when it was supposed to be in the 60's and nice autumn weather and now we're going straight to 50's. Ah well, can't have a winner fall like last year every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/22/2021 at 10:54 PM, MikeB_01 said: Interesting that they would mention weakening after sunset. I mean that is how it usually goes, but instability was never really a factor yesterday anyway. It was all about the wind shear. I’m sure the sunset could have caused slight weakening, but the main fuel for those storms was the shear Reading the NWSChat report (https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202110232359-KPBZ-NOUS41-PNSPBZ) really sounds like no one would have thought a tornado outbreak would be probable here. If the SPC dismissed any probability of a tornado outbreak in our area in October then those heuristics (bias, really) definitely influenced the decision to not issue a watch. Hopefully they will incorporate this in future decisions because the aforementioned discussion also states that our area has seen more and more tornado warnings since 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 GFS has been hinting at an early window of opportunity around the first weekend of November. Euro also has some flakes at the end of the run I believe. Just as long as it doesn't play out like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 hours ago, dj3 said: GFS has been hinting at an early window of opportunity around the first weekend of November. Euro also has some flakes at the end of the run I believe. Just as long as it doesn't play out like this... Oh God! Let the worrying begin, lol. 'Tis the season! Let's move it west some and lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 Euro looks interesting for next week this time. Obviously, a long way off in model land, but hey, first teaser of the season. Weather app on phone has introduced a snowflake on Thursday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Got any forecast pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 That would certainly be quite a kickoff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 GFS also wants to play, but isn't as cold as the Euro. Close but not quite. Higher elevations in the area get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Looks like we’ll clinch the warmest October since 1949 and 2nd warmest all time if you exclude all the pre-KPIT clutter. (8th if you include it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Is there a reason that there are frost and freeze warnings all the way to the Atlantic coast and down to TN. But not here? Forecast is for 31 from the NWS. Did we already have one that I missed? Quoting this in the fall thread: No, the NWS posted yesterday that the growing season is over and they will no longer be issuing them this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 3, 2021 Author Share Posted November 3, 2021 12 hours ago, TimB84 said: Quoting this in the fall thread: No, the NWS posted yesterday that the growing season is over and they will no longer be issuing them this year. Oops, somehow, I totally ended up in the wrong thread. Anyway, weird, considering it only went down below freezing for the first time this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 4 hours ago, Ahoff said: Oops, somehow, I totally ended up in the wrong thread. Anyway, weird, considering it only went down below freezing for the first time this morning. I mean, you’d have to be insane to be trying to grow anything sensitive into November, but I do know what you mean. That said, the 29 appears to be exactly on schedule for first 20s at PIT (Nov. 3 is the average date). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 3, 2021 Author Share Posted November 3, 2021 39 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I mean, you’d have to be insane to be trying to grow anything sensitive into November, but I do know what you mean. That said, the 29 appears to be exactly on schedule for first 20s at PIT (Nov. 3 is the average date). Well, yeah, most around here are done growing by November, but technically speaking it's odd considering they have records for growing season length. I mean if they're going to arbitrarily call and end to the season for no weather related reason, why even track it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 Coldest morning again, 26 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Coldest morning again, 26 degrees. Might aid us in recording our first double digit negative departure since 6/23 (but only if we get no higher than 48 this afternoon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: Might aid us in recording our first double digit negative departure since 6/23 (but only if we get no higher than 48 this afternoon). Forecast is 46 or 47, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 24.4 In Evans city this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 7 hours ago, Ahoff said: Forecast is 46 or 47, so we'll see. Just kidding anyway. Official NWS normals have the normal high/low/mean at 56/38/46. Not sure how that happens, as even (55.5+37.5)/2 = 46.5, which rounds up. So 48/26=37 gives us a -9 according to the official NWS report. So we’re at 134 days and counting without a negative double digit departure, and in the same timespan we’ve had 13 positive double digit departures (despite the normals rising decisively this year), and we likely won’t have one over the next 10 days or so at least. Edit: I looked at the official normals for today, it’s 55.6 and 37.5. (55.6+37.5)/2 = 46.55, which I would still round to 47 and not 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 Coldest again this morning, 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Earliest date with 4 consecutive lows in the 20s: 1. 10/26-29/1976 (4 days) 2. 11/1-5/1879 (5 days) 3. 11/1-4/1954 (4 days) T-4. 11/3-6/2021 (4 days), 11/3-6/1951 (4 days), 11/3-6/1991 (4 days), 11/3-7/1966 (5 days) This is rarer than I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Earliest date with 4 consecutive lows in the 20s: 1. 10/26-29/1976 (4 days) 2. 11/1-5/1879 (5 days) 3. 11/1-4/1954 (4 days) T-4. 11/3-6/2021 (4 days), 11/3-6/1951 (4 days), 11/3-6/1991 (4 days), 11/3-7/1966 (5 days) This is rarer than I would have thought. That's interesting. Wonder if it will be the earliest 5 days in a row? Looks like we have a chance at around 28 again tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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