Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion

[Ahoff]

Time for Fall!

[MikeB_01]

The perfect weather day today to make us think fall!


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[Ahoff]

Good weather to starting the leaf changing process.

[TimB]

Almost right on cue for recent Septembers, a CPC map without any blue to be found. At least we’re in the gray:

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Almost right on cue for recent Septembers, a CPC map without any blue to be found. At least we’re in the gray:

 

Let's get it out of the way when we are not expecting it to be too cool anyway. Normal in Sept is not too shabby. 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Almost right on cue for recent Septembers, a CPC map without any blue to be found. At least we’re in the gray:

That probably means it'll be cool, lol.  They always seem to warm biased.

[TimB]

Just now, Ahoff said:

That probably means it'll be cool, lol.  They always seem to warm biased.

We’ll see. Big model differences at 240, so nothing is set in stone.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

We’ll see. Big model differences at 240, so nothing is set in stone.

Just as long as it isn't scorching, I'm good.  These cool nights and warm days are nice.

[Gordo74]

Late last week, it didnt look like we'd need the AC this week, but that ugly "8" popped back up at the beginning of the temperature for today and over the upcoming weekend. Sigh. Maybe soon.

[Ahoff]

7 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Late last week, it didnt look like we'd need the AC this week, but that ugly "8" popped back up at the beginning of the temperature for today and over the upcoming weekend. Sigh. Maybe soon.

low 80s require an air conditioner?  At least it's lower humidity, that helps immensely.

[TimB]

4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

low 80s require an air conditioner?  At least it's lower humidity, that helps immensely.

We can’t expect to get through September without hitting 80, and a day or two of low 80s can be managed without a/c, but I’m still hoping against hope that the 2015-2019 version of our Septembers isn’t our permanent new normal, and that last September wasn’t just a fluke.

Also, if you go by the GFS, the last 2 runs have had Sunday afternoon at 84/65 and 82/65, so it’s not necessarily the case that it’ll be lower humidity.

[Gordo74]

7 hours ago, Ahoff said:

low 80s require an air conditioner?  At least it's lower humidity, that helps immensely.

9 times out of 10, I’d agree with you. 

But if you get a stretch of mid 70’s, lots of sun on the house, then a 80 day, that could quite easily translate to a sweaty afternoon inside.

At least the next few days will be a good temp. I was spoiled late last week with low 70’s/high 60’s in the mountains as the high with a nice breeze and now I. Want. More.

 

 

[jwilson]

I think we've gotten used to September warming, at this point.  It is rarely a "fall" month anymore.  We can even stretch the 80s (and more rarely 90s) into October.  Heck, even last November was warm in the beginning.  Of course, two years ago November was the coldest month of the winter (I think), so it's hardly definitive beyond a warmer September.  I like fall, though, and it's unfortunate we see less of it.  My own theory is we're eventually going to have two primary seasons: winter and summer, not much lengthy in-between.

[TimB]

Oops, posted this in the summer thread. This belongs in the fall thread. Very puzzling, the last sentence of this morning’s forecast discussion weighed against the last few days of the zone forecast:

[Ahoff]

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Oops, posted this in the summer thread. This belongs in the fall thread. Very puzzling, the last sentence of this morning’s forecast discussion weighed against the last few days of the zone forecast:

See what the GFS was throwing out in the long range, would be interesting, a little early for the time period you mention, but very cool on that run.  However, GFS long range, so grain of salt and all.

[TimB]

39 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

See what the GFS was throwing out in the long range, would be interesting, a little early for the time period you mention, but very cool on that run.  However, GFS long range, so grain of salt and all.

Be interesting to see how it all evolves. I see a lot of heat in the eastern 2/3 of the country, but the GFS mutes it somewhat and the other models come down a bit. Getting through the first 11 days of the month without even one positive departure will be a big win.

[TimB]

Who’s ready for 2nd summer? Looks like it begins tomorrow and the end is TBD. Overnight GFS runs are particularly ugly, not a single temp below 62 at PIT after this morning on the 0z or the 6z, and 2 straight weeks of dewpoints 60 or higher.

[jwilson]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Who’s ready for 2nd summer? Looks like it begins tomorrow and the end is TBD. Overnight GFS runs are particularly ugly, not a single temp below 62 at PIT after this morning on the 0z or the 6z, and 2 straight weeks of dewpoints 60 or higher.

Sounds like we're going to need another hurricane to break the pattern again.

[Ahoff]

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac
 

Let us pray!

[Gordo74]

Yucko Sucko weather

[Ahoff]

Really wasn't the day I was expecting.  Thought it'd be sunny, but definitely was at least mostly cloudy.

[TimB]

Could do without this humidity, but nice to see both PIT and AGC rolling into the 4:00 hour without an 80 yet.

[Ahoff]

Looking like the middle to end of the upcoming week gets Fall-like.

This warm spell hasn't been too impressive at this point.  looks like low 80s for the rest of it.  Nothing unusual by any stretch.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Looking like the middle to end of the upcoming week gets Fall-like.

This warm spell hasn't been too impressive at this point.  looks like low 80s for the rest of it.  Nothing unusual by any stretch.

Perfect!! Looking forward to the smell of that cooler fresh air!!

[TimB]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Looking like the middle to end of the upcoming week gets Fall-like.

This warm spell hasn't been too impressive at this point.  looks like low 80s for the rest of it.  Nothing unusual by any stretch.

It’s definitely been better than what I was dreading. The humidity has been brutal, but even that broke last night, if only for 12 hours or so. Don’t think I’ll complain too much about a stretch in September where we only get into the low 80s (maybe mid-80s a day or two if we overperform).

PBZ’s one forecaster that actually writes good discussions had this to say:

[TimB]

Also hope this fog holds on as long as possible and cuts into our high temp today.

[Ahoff]

Just now, TimB84 said:

Also hope this fog holds on as long as possible and cuts into our high temp today.

We do have a way of holding on to fog for a longer periods of time than forecasted.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

We do have a way of holding on to fog for a longer periods of time than forecasted.

Has kept PIT from getting past 64 so far. Achieving 15 more degrees this afternoon to get to the forecast high will be difficult with September sun angle.

[TimB]

Clown map time:

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Has kept PIT from getting past 64 so far. Achieving 15 more degrees this afternoon to get to the forecast high will be difficult with September sun angle.

Up to 69, but looks like an underachiever today.