CP 3 consecutive months of 10"+ and can we exceed the 3 month 2011 total of 34.43"?

[rclab]

On 9/28/2021 at 9:49 PM, donsutherland1 said:

0.27” was the final amount. September will very likely end with 10.03”.

 

On 9/28/2021 at 10:41 PM, LibertyBell said:

but whats wrong with dry weather? I love it.  we've had more than enough rain for the entire year....this isn't supposed to be the gulf coast

 

 

On 9/28/2021 at 10:42 PM, LibertyBell said:

but there is no more means Walt, this is how disgustingly wet and humid our climate has become

 

=

 

On 9/28/2021 at 10:44 PM, LibertyBell said:

Now that we got the record, I dont want a single drop of rain for the rest of the year

 

 

On 9/28/2021 at 11:25 PM, LibertyBell said:

I'm thinking that this is our new average rainfall....I think we've had 50 or more inches of rain more often than not, compared to the 80s when it only happened in 1983.  I'm not sure it happened at all in the 90s.

 

 

On 9/28/2021 at 11:34 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Rainfall totals increased fairly abruptly after 1970.

Good morning Don, Liberty, Walt. Liberty you never fail me while I sip my morning penance. I understand your frustration but we are finishing a month of much  above normal rainfall with 95% of it occurring in two events and dry in between. I’m only looking at it from my UHI postage stamp perspective. It’s a bit different for Irish, Julian and perhaps even BxE. My concern/perception is not the amount but the delivery of the amounts. Even the same amount spread over numerous days with some overnighters might only garner excitement in the rain gear industry. My fear is, as I consistently repeat is extreme seeking balance. If the next 93 days remained rain free it would fall right into that pattern. Wherever our sentient engineered climate is taking us, ( weather ) we like it or not … we are going. Doing something about it is another question, another topic and perhaps not seriously/discussed in quarters that should be as concerned  as many of us are, in this forum. Now for a power walk on a nice, cool, sunny morning as I contemplate next weeks unsettled weather. As always ….

[uncle W]

before 1971 the average annual rainfall in NYC was around 42"...since 1971 its around 50"...

NYC precipitation...

NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870.

10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year

1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26"

1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16"

1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26"

1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32"

1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00"

1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06"

1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53"

1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51"

1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20"

1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54"

1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03"

1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56"

1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92"

2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70"

2010's..............50.75"........38.51".......72.81"

1870-

2019................45.51"

1990-

2019................50.41"

1870-

1969................42.92"

1970-

2019................50.70"

...........................................................................................................................................

1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park...

years.................ave..........lowest........highest

1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67"

1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57"

1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40"

1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68"

1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr av

[donsutherland1]

I looked at outcomes following high July-September precipitation on fall (September-November) and winter (December-February) precipitation for New York City. Rather than using the full 1869-2020 data set, I used the 1971-2020 data set for two reasons:

1. There has been an abrupt and sustained increase in precipitation after 1970. 1869-1970 average: 42.89". 1971-2020 average: 50.67". The drier region prior to 1971 may no longer be relevant.

2. The 1971-2020 data set is sufficiently large to produce cases for evaluation.
To determine "high precipitation" outcomes, I used 0.5 or more sigma above the July-September 1971-2020 average. There were 8 cases that fit that definition: 1971, 1975, 1989, 1990, 2000, 2004, 2011, and 2018. All but 1990 and 2000 were at least 1 sigma above the average.

Fall (September-November):
1971-2020 Average: 12.62"
8-Case Subset: 15.74"
All but 2 cases were at least 1 sigma above the fall average. Only 1990 and 2000 were slightly below normal (-0.28 sigma and -0.62 sigma).
This supports the continuation of above normal precipitation through much of the fall.

Following Winter (December-February):
1971-72 through 2020-21 average: 11.29"
8-Case Subset: 10.44"
5 (63%) were within 0.5 sigma of the average
3 (37%) were more than 0.5 sigma below average (1989-90, 2000-01, 2011-12)
1 (13%) were more than 0.5 sigma above average (2018-19)

Precipitation amounts did not necessarily impact seasonal snowfall. 2004-05 had 41.0" snowfall with precipitation +0.04 sigma (near normal). 2000-01 had 35.0" snowfall with precipitation -0.94 sigma (much below normal). Winter 2018-19 had 20.5" (precipitation: +0.61 sigma or above normal). Mean snowfall for the subset: 22.8"; median snowfall: 21.7". Excluding the El Niño cases (2004-05 and 2018-19), the mean snowfall was 20.2" and the median snowfall was 20.1".

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 

=

 

 

 

Good morning Don, Liberty, Walt. Liberty you never fail me while I sip my morning penance. I understand your frustration but we are finishing a month of much  above normal rainfall with 95% of it occurring in two events and dry in between. I’m only looking at it from my UHI postage stamp perspective. It’s a bit different for Irish, Julian and perhaps even Bx. My concern/perception is not the amount but the delivery of the amounts. Even the same amount spread over numerous days with some overnighters might only garner excitement in the rain gear industry. My fear is, as I consistently repeat is extreme seeking balance. If the next 93 days remained rain free it would fall right into that pattern. Wherever our sentient engineered climate is taking us, ( weather ) we like it or not … we are going. Doing something about it is another question, another topic and perhaps not seriously/discussed in quarters that should be as concerned  as many of us are in this forum. Now for a power walk on a nice, cool, sunny morning as I contemplate next weeks unsettled weather. As always ….

all the humidity and periods leading up to rainfall cause me extreme problems with allergies and some breathing issues.  I take allergy meds but I noticed that I have to take them much more now than I did in the past.

 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's September rainfall, teleconnections climatology (1991-20 period) and outcomes: