CP 3 consecutive months of 10"+ and can we exceed the 3 month 2011 total of 34.43"?

[wdrag]

All good on Don’s post. 7.51 as of 8PM.  

[wdrag]

There should be showers in the NYC subforum later 12 into early 14 and possibly again  15/16th.  After that pattern should become favorable fir tropical WAA after the 17th.  Timing and organized trop system unknown. Trod has a tendency to back up to Miss Valley as I see it in the ensembles by D10-15.  That should allow WAR to strengthen. Lots of unknowns. Latest CPC D6-14 has odds favoring AN QPF. Unknowns but pattern says it’s possible. 

[wdrag]

So, there should be showers in the NYC subforum as early as later Sunday (probably later Monday  into early Tuesday and possibly again  15/16th.  I'd like to see NYC get between 0.1-0.2 the 13th-14th and a quarter inch or more the 15th-16th.  

Then thereafter, we see what evolves from the cyclically favorable GFS and GGEM op cycle for tropical WAA after the 17th.  Timing and organized trop system unknown.  No thread yet on tropical system (or remnant -post TC) but re-reviewing early Sunday and more thoroughly. 

[donsutherland1]

At this time, I believe Central Park will likely reach 10” or more this month. Three reasons:

1. The rainfall from 9/12-30 during the 1971-2020 period would be sufficient (more than half the years in the he sample)

2. Super wet summers have been followed by wet falls.

3. The forecast pattern evolution and potential development of a PNA- near or after mid-month. A PNA- has been present for a disproportionate share of daily rainfall amounts of 1” or more during September 1991-2020. The PNA was negative during Ida’s historically intense rainfall in NYC and EWR.

[wdrag]

Hope Don is right above: No event threads yet...just too much uncertainty in my mind, when.  The past two cycles of the op GFS (9/12 versions) look a little unrealistic to me when looking toward the 20th and seeing it model a 1030'sMB high down our way into New England.  Doesn't seem normal for the pattern (too strong a high). 

SPC has a marginal risk here Monday the 13th. Will rereview next 24 hours but no thread.

The Texas coast (likely in my mind) TC Nicholas has some opportunity for moisture to escape Texas and head our way late this week?? but nothing clear cut for me. 

EPS and GEFS are not yet showing above normal qpf here before the 28th, which is tempering my enthusiasm a bit, despite pattern evolution. I always consider the overall ensemble modeling, especially beyond 48 hours. Will check back again early Monday. Enjoy these days. 

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Hope Don is right above: No event threads yet...just too much uncertainty in my mind, when.  The past two cycles of the op GFS (9/12 versions) look a little unrealistic to me when looking toward the 20th and seeing it model a 1030'sMB high down our way into New England.  Doesn't seem normal for the pattern (too strong a high). 

SPC has a marginal risk here Monday the 13th. Will rereview next 24 hours but no thread.

The Texas coast (likely in my mind) TC Nicholas has some opportunity for moisture to escape Texas and head our way late this week?? but nothing clear cut for me. 

EPS and GEFS are not yet showing above normal qpf here before the 28th, which is tempering my enthusiasm a bit, despite pattern evolution. I always consider the overall ensemble modeling, especially beyond 48 hours. Will check back again early Monday. Enjoy these days. 

 

927AM edit additional impressions:

 

Just reviewed data in more details. 1) 06z GEFS starting to show more interest for me regarding a tucked in rain producing low for the mid Atlantic coast 15-17th.   Members starting to pique my interest.  Also a load of TC reflections after the 23rd moving n or nw in the w-central Atlc.  These could all recurve too far east.  My interest will grow much further if we can start seeing GMEX (w of 75W TC's). This going to be interesting as anomalously warm heights build over the se quarter of Canada the next 10 days (to me implies slower movement as steering flow decreases in the eastern USA)

2) SVR threat:  EC has a pretty decent nw flow svr signal for Mon afternoon-night and I'm a believer in any model showing bullseye stripe of 1/4" plus in PA/NJ/LI Monday or Tuesday as Cape also increases, with TT in the low 50s and winds aloft greater than 35 kt. 

[wdrag]

Reviewing 12z/12 model guidance:

Nicholas moisture has a chance here toward the 17th-18th if it doesn't get stuck in Texas, or swept to our north.  
SPC this afternoon has upgraded to slight risk Tuesday, which may happen early in the day and again at night per potential clusters of thunderstorms and fairly strong nw-w flow aloft, and TT 52-57.  

And the mid Atlantic coastal low option still is an option here, if it doesn't turn east out to sea next weekend?  

No threads, just too much model disagreement. 

 

[wdrag]

No threads despite SPC D1 attached, and what appears to me a piece of Nicholas PW leaking out up into our area toward the 18th. This thread will suffice, if anything significant happens.  After the 19th, doesn't look promising for a big rain that till the 29th-30th, but lots can change by then.

For now, it would be nice if we do get some convection early Tuesday morning for starters.  We're also on the se edge for Wednesday SPC D3... will take one day at a time. While some of the parameters are favorable for later tonight,  I'll just accept decent storms in the Scranton - NYC slot as useful. Some of the 00z/13 modeling has at least temporarily backed off on an event for tonight.

SPC D1 and discussion attached below, as well as the 00z/13 SPC HREF mean qpf and MAX axis qpf.. Would love to see this mean correct... confidence less than ideal. 

 

623AM edit: I see the 06z GFS is back on board tonight.  Nice. 

[wdrag]

Tonight: Rapidly developing convection in northern PA at 525PM may pass mostly across PA/NJ, especially just s of I80 meaning NYC may miss out on 1/2-1/2" tonight (& hail) and escape with much less. I saw the 18z/13 NAM w large qpf in NYC, but a little concerned the PA action will hug the greatest instability. Nevertheless, if it looks impressive at 830P for SVR, I may add a thread for reports. 

Tuesday-Saturday:  ENS are getting a little wetter with the NAEFS showing an approximately 40% chance of 1" NYC-LI by Saturday night. EPS has definitely become wetter, in part by what I think is an evolving upper low s of LI (well south of anomalously warm heights near the Canadian border); and possibly a little northward ingest of Nicholas moisture as witnessed via the EPS above normal corridor newd from TEXAS thru the OHIO valley to I80 in the Northeast. 

Even the pattern toward the 28th-30th is taking on an interesting look as tropical members head north off the east coast. 

[wdrag]

CP 0.12 thru 5A today - 9/14, all of it late last eve. 7.63 for the month so far. 

[wdrag]

So,  beyond what might happen Wed night as the front approaches, the Thu-Fri outcome might be as interesting.  Decent s-se inflow into the remains of the frontal boundary, wherever it is stuck , which could be I95 to as much as ~80 NW of I95, and it may yield patches 1-3" rainfall.  If the offshore low is named Odette, or Peter,  then we might be looking at a PRE, especially Fri?  Sketchy signals and nothing impressive so it's a low prob but for me worthy of monitoring modeling. 

Probably worth noting the dry extended forecasts for yesterday and this week have moistened.  Not convinced yet, that Saturday morning is dry, and some action may be developing middle of next week. 

[LibertyBell]

On 9/13/2021 at 5:29 PM, wdrag said:

Tonight: Rapidly developing convection in northern PA at 525PM may pass mostly across PA/NJ, especially just s of I80 meaning NYC may miss out on 1/2-1/2" tonight (& hail) and escape with much less. I saw the 18z/13 NAM w large qpf in NYC, but a little concerned the PA action will hug the greatest instability. Nevertheless, if it looks impressive at 830P for SVR, I may add a thread for reports. 

Tuesday-Saturday:  ENS are getting a little wetter with the NAEFS showing an approximately 40% chance of 1" NYC-LI by Saturday night. EPS has definitely become wetter, in part by what I think is an evolving upper low s of LI (well south of anomalously warm heights near the Canadian border); and possibly a little northward ingest of Nicholas moisture as witnessed via the EPS above normal corridor newd from TEXAS thru the OHIO valley to I80 in the Northeast. 

Even the pattern toward the 28th-30th is taking on an interesting look as tropical members head north off the east coast. 

Walt for the end of the month, do those look like mostly recurving storms that pass east of us?

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, wdrag said:

So,  beyond what might happen Wed night as the front approaches, the Thu-Fri outcome might be as interesting.  Decent s-se inflow into the remains of the frontal boundary, wherever it is stuck , which could be I95 to as much as ~80 NW of I95, and it may yield patches 1-3" rainfall.  If the offshore low is named Odette, or Peter,  then we might be looking at a PRE, especially Fri?  Sketchy signals and nothing impressive so it's a low prob but for me worthy of monitoring modeling. 

Probably worth noting the dry extended forecasts for yesterday and this week have moistened.  Not convinced yet, that Saturday morning is dry, and some action may be developing middle of next week. 

For next week, that sounds like sneaky local tropical development?

 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

For next week, that sounds like sneaky local tropical development?

 

Yes... Need to monitor. I'm pretty sure there will be a TC there, but whether it goes ballistic and or nears LI?? some of the modeling like this weekends possible Odette/Peter, heads east northeast before coming close enough to involve the mainland in its direct circulation. 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt for the end of the month, do those look like mostly recurving storms that pass east of us?

 

Recurving but with possibilities.  Just need to wait it out.  We're talking 15 days away...  UA pattern can change considerably by then. 

[wdrag]

Will rereview 13z SPCD1 and the 12z HRRR,  then probably start a thread for the D1 SVR risk. 

[wdrag]

No SVR thread yet: looks too marginal except nw edge of the forum. IF this changes more favorable, will add on, or if it looks blatant on radar.  For now, no thread on D1 severe.  

Regarding the Sept CP10". My goal by Sat evening is to see CP with new 0.40" by then (monthly total just over 8"). Then I think we still have a fading chance.  IF CP has less than 0.20 by Saturday eve,  think it will be much harder to exceed 10" this month. We have the tropical considerations after the 23rd to contend with and while the 500MB troughing is sharpening to our west on the 06z/15 GEFS,  just too early for me to count on a big rain after the 23rd. 

[wdrag]

Been dissappointingly poor NYC area qpf past two days. Not much coming next two days...maybe we get lucky in the city and get a few hundredths. Appears two more sizable options left in the month, around the 23rd or thereabouts and then 26th-28th. One would think it will be tough to attain the 10" goal. We'll see. 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, wdrag said:

Been dissappointingly poor NYC area qpf past two days. Not much coming next two days...maybe we get lucky in the city and get a few hundredths. Appears two more sizable options left in the month, around the 23rd or thereabouts and then 26th-28th. One would think it will be tough to attain the 10" goal. We'll see. 

I detest this cloudy dreary weather time to bring in a fall front and clear out this mess

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I detest this cloudy dreary weather time to bring in a fall front and clear out this mess

 

glad to see the sun is out!

[wdrag]

So Odette formed but the scenario did not play out as i thought it might, instead smatterings here and there with bigger qpf NJ, e LI, DCA area. Might get a decent shower late today.

Best chances to get decent amounts seem to be 22nd-23rd and somewhere around the 26th-28th. Seems like a long shot for 10", certainly longer shot than when presented in the originating thread but there are options for the necessary amounts. It seems like everything has to go right, including a sharper further south 500MB trough 22nd-23rd and ditto 26-28, both that might ingest some tropical moisture and focus low pressure just s of LI.  For now, not holding my breath. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Perhaps the last chance? But not my preference.

[doncat]

Guidance currently looking pretty wet with next week's system...8.85" here this month so far.

[wdrag]

May not post much for a couple of days   Allowing troughs and PW to come into better agreement  think we need two events to get close? Have a day. 

[wdrag]

Hope but probably no cigar. Like seeing soo much s-se inflow into the front, implying lots of lift near the front Thursday. The slower it crosses NJ, the better. Also the secondary digging upper level trough late next weekend into the 30th is of interest but overall, the second batch probably not enough for a 10" Sept, yet not a zero chance. 

[wdrag]

.08 this eve. total for Sept 7.71.  still a long ways from 10". 

[wdrag]

7.73 as of 9A/22.  

No thread yet on a 3+" event for a portion of the subforum and spotty SVR.  Right now, I think it's marginal  but if we happen to get a meso low on the cold front Thursday night over NJ, then i think we'll have some non-routine heavier rains and wind events.  Will rereview late today and early Thursday. For now, no go for me.

Still a long long shot to get 10+ for the month at CP but a small chance. Axis of max bands next 48 hours, and any new rains on the 25th and 30th are uncertainties.  06z GEFS has temporarily lost the intensity of the weekend trough.  So waiting this out.

[wdrag]

After whatever happens by 8AM Friday the 24th, there will be one or two more opportunities for rain before the end of the month.  Whether CP makes 10"will be largely dependent on what happens tonight. Presuming it's under 1.7",  then reaching 10 this month is very unlikely. Thread for tonight has been started.

[wdrag]

0.94 6P-8P including 0.86 in 1 hr ending 750P.  Mo total 8.67 as of 8P/23.  Depends on what occurs overnight but prob less than 1".  Then depends on whether we get a coastal 29th-30th. Long shot all. 

[wdrag]

By my count as of 430A: NYC CP at 9.46" for the month, still counting.  storm total 1.73 and still rising. Need to reverify at 5A.