Fall/Winter '21-'22 General Obs

[John1122]

Day one of met fall, highs in the 70s, humidity fell through the day.  Hard to beat after the heat, humidity and rain that ended met summer.

[John1122]

52 degrees this morning. It felt spectacular. 

[John1122]

50 this morning. It was down to 65 in my house around 8am. 

[John1122]

Heavy rain earlier but a sharp cutoff south of the Cumberlands. Went down to town and transitioned from rain running down the highway and large puddles to stone dry pavement in about 100 yards as I cleared the mountains through Big Creek Gap. 

[John1122]

Hadn't kept up with the forecast for today apparently. Last I saw was a 30 percent chance of scattered storms. Instead it rained steady for around 4 hours earlier.  Stayed cloudy and misty the rest of the day. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Front just blasted through here in Morgan County. No doubts when it came through, lol. Enjoy all y'all further east as it heads off the plateau! 

[Dsty2001]

It feels like Heaven(Fall) outside and I'm enjoying the nice cold rain

[John1122]

Afternoon temps in the upper 50s with a few rogue showers. Feels like late October. 

[Wintersnow888]

Temperature already hovering around 50 and one last windy shower around 4 came through before clearing started

[John1122]

Heavy, soaking rains, especially the last two hours.  Just what we needed with fire and leaf season on the door step. 

[John1122]

39 out there with about 2 hours of cooling left to go. First 30s of fall season always gets me happy. 

[jaxjagman]

Turned my heater on for a bit to get the chill out this morning

[John1122]

Ended up at 37 this morning. Should help get the leaves rolling faster. 

[John1122]

Looking back, last year my first frost was October 3rd, first freeze the 17th and my leaves were gone by Halloween. 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies are out.  Still a fairly good signal for seasonal or slightly BN temps for the SE.  @nrgjeff, most of the teleconnections look neutral after the next week or os.  Best I can I can tell is many the -WPO is helping driving the pattern some in terms of teleconnections.  I imagine the climatology for Nina is also driving the look in modeling.  

[Carvers Gap]

Very persistent Hudson Bay block is also there.  During winter that would be money if not too far south.  Right now, seems to just be funneling north Pac air across the US and maybe tap Alaska from time to tome.

[nrgjeff]

Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. 

Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting.

Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. 

Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting.

Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.

Lol after the past several years if the PAC NW can screw us it will. No questions asked.

[John1122]

Third straight morning in the 30s with sunny afternoons has a lot of color popping out. We will probably peak between October 28th and November 3rd or so this year. A good 10 days later than last year. 

[nrgjeff]

Thank you for the update and foliage forecast. We were going to try to get out this weekend, but the last weekend of October is probably better for us.

I figure above 3K ft is good this weekend. Thanks to ample moisture in spring and summer, and finally decent diurnal trends, I'm hoping for a great show in the valleys and even urban areas again like last year. Chatty is definitely after Halloween.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Interesting satellite imagery this PM:

 

Almost looks like a low level low spinning up near Knox

 

That arrow shaped dry punch is rolling in overhead and really cranked up the wind here. 

[John1122]

It's been in the 40s all afternoon. It truly feels cold after it was so warm the prior 48 hours. 

[John1122]

Hit the upper 30s by 10:30, 37 right now. May make a run at freezing by morning. A frost is likely inbound regardless. 

[John1122]

Looks like 35 might do it tonight. Thick fog rolled in with very low visibility. 

[Daniel Boone]

Recorded 1st freeze of Season here this morning. 31.6 degrees.

[nrgjeff]

We need a rave glowstick emoji / reaction for events like above. 

Meanwhile Chattanooga feels like Wichita this morning. Wind is blowing from the south and it's stiff. Started right at 8am. MRX with the precision advisories, haha!

[John1122]

Colors looked brilliant in the cloudy backdrop today. This heavy rain may be taking a toll on them tonight.  I think they're still going to have a little more time though. They weren't as far along as they were last year when the rain storm took them off. 

[nrgjeff]

Thank you! We are Plateau bound Saturday. Have to figure the Smokies were stripped in the High Wind Warning.

@John1122 what's the best elevation? I'm wondering somewhere close or haul up toward Frozen Head. Closer is ideal since we know the less crowded spots of the Plateau. 

Everyone, happy foliage. Remember cloudy can still yield excellent photography. Though I still prefer sunny, we take what we get. 

[John1122]

6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Thank you! We are Plateau bound Saturday. Have to figure the Smokies were stripped in the High Wind Warning.

@John1122 what's the best elevation? I'm wondering somewhere close or haul up toward Frozen Head. Closer is ideal since we know the less crowded spots of the Plateau. 

Everyone, happy foliage. Remember cloudy can still yield excellent photography. Though I still prefer sunny, we take what we get. 

Today, anything between 1250 and 2500 looks good. Tons of color. I didn't drive up to 3000 and it's in a cloud the past two days so I'm not sure what the status is that high up. 

[8283 El Nino Baby]

Very colorful here on the plateau at 2000 feet.