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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What was KBUFS low temp overnight? Definitely a hard freeze here had to use scrapper to clear my windshield this morning.  

Meanwhile at my house in clarence was a balmy 39. Got down to 33 as soon as I got south of broadway on my way out to west falls.

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My thermometer recorded a low of 33 but there still was no frost this morning. As for the storm next weekend (11/5-6), the GFS has a rain system passing across southern New England on Friday that redevelops in the GOM. All we get is some lake effect in it’s wake. 

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Pretty sweet set up! Just really, really hard to get anything but slush in the lower elevations at this point. It almost feels like wasted opportunities. 
Take this last one for example, that would’ve been a block buster for all of us. That kind of storm would’ve buried the thruway districts. Just crush along south Ontario shore. And yet the LP was OTS. Show me that in January. Lol

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A trough will then dig across the Great Lakes mid-week, which will
drive a cooler airmass into the region. This will produce showers
Tuesday and Wednesday, with lake effect showers possible downwind of
the Lakes. Adjusted model guidance to account for lake effect
precipitation. Expect mainly rain showers, but with 850mb
temperatures dropping to -5c some wet snow flakes are possible well
inland from the lakes
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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Something is definitely wrong 

I’ll play with the numbers more later but KBUF briefly made it down to 38.  Other stations I have spot checked so far made it down to 33-34.  Even for me right by the lake went low enough to get a very light frosty coat.  Telling you it’s going to end up snowing with a KBUF temp at 38 and no one will know why.

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44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well at least we are starting to see some consistency with a potential storm around the 4th/5th...

Latest GFS slides off to the south and east with the trough just starting to go negative tilted .

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_30 (1).png

I think the euro coming out soon will show a similar track , but, has been more bullish on snow further west

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15 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

So last night it was rainy at 10pm and all the stations were within a half degree of each other.  Tonight at 10pm its clear so yeah KBUF running 4-8 degrees warmer that surrounding sites, seems about right?  This is just crazy...

temps10271008pm.png

An interesting data point for sure.  Yesterday was wall to wall sun all day so this would continue to support some sort of solar induced urban heat island at that location. 

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6 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

An interesting data point for sure.  Yesterday was wall to wall sun all day so this would continue to support some sort of solar induced urban heat island at that location. 

It would... I have noticed a few times now on nights were it has been rainy that KBUF falls right in line with the nearby stations with very little variance.  I'm still not sold on the UHI impact though as I have seen more than a few night were KBUF doesn't spike until a point randomly in the middle of the overnight, hours after sunset.  I would assume the UHI effects would start to take hold immediately after sunset and we would see KBUF holding at a slower temperature decline, with the impacts possibly lessening or just being a non factor after a few hours of dark.  I'll have to check my notes but I'm pretty sure I had at least one day where it was cloudy and rainy all day then cleared up at night but we still saw the warm temp variance which again would not support the UHI.  

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3 to 4.5 degrees warmer the entire night last night.  The green line station that blips up at 1am looks like it was brought inside for some reason as station warmed to room temperature for a short period.  The thing that gets me is the consistency all of these different PWS have with each other.  The KBUF line inst even in the same ball park.  It's an outlier overnight for whatever reason...     565215360_10271028chart.png.ee2b81e969783f694da4b984b7561d6e.png

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First wording of "snow" in the forecast..

Obviously would be early morning with a forecast low of 35°, maybe a mangled flake lol Either way a long shot at this point..

Thursday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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