Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: What was KBUFS low temp overnight? Definitely a hard freeze here had to use scrapper to clear my windshield this morning. Meanwhile at my house in clarence was a balmy 39. Got down to 33 as soon as I got south of broadway on my way out to west falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Got down to 29 last night here in the Great Sacandaga Lake/ Southern Dack region.....3rd time in the 20s this fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Looks like it frosted across most of Erie County except on the KBUF property... Come on man! Somethings wrong here! I mean my car did read the same reading at 3am this morning I was right there at the airport. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 Yesterday was 60/42. KBUF average for Oct is 60.8 so far through the 27th. 4 days left. Going to be close but I don't think we finish 1st, most likely 2nd/3rd. 1 60.5 1900 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Got down to 32 overnight, forecast low was 38° lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 My thermometer recorded a low of 33 but there still was no frost this morning. As for the storm next weekend (11/5-6), the GFS has a rain system passing across southern New England on Friday that redevelops in the GOM. All we get is some lake effect in it’s wake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Yeah, GFS gas some snow in the Dacks but rain for most verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Lake effect behind the system on the GFS. Rain on the lake plain, sorry Matt! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: I get a weenie on a post where it can snow in the interior in November. People have lost their mind . You got 4 weenies, and counting… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: I get a weenie on a post where it can snow in the interior in November. People have lost their mind . You're the king of all weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 I think most of us see our first flakes next week 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Take advantage of the rain-free weather today, because a soaking rain will gradually spread from southwest to northeast across the area during the day on Friday. Expect about an inch of rain across Western New York Friday and Friday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Pretty sweet set up! Just really, really hard to get anything but slush in the lower elevations at this point. It almost feels like wasted opportunities. Take this last one for example, that would’ve been a block buster for all of us. That kind of storm would’ve buried the thruway districts. Just crush along south Ontario shore. And yet the LP was OTS. Show me that in January. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Take advantage of the rain-free weather today, because a soaking rain will gradually spread from southwest to northeast across the area during the day on Friday. Expect about an inch of rain across Western New York Friday and Friday night 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: What was KBUFS low temp overnight? Definitely a hard freeze here had to use scrapper to clear my windshield this morning. Something is definitely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 A trough will then dig across the Great Lakes mid-week, which will drive a cooler airmass into the region. This will produce showers Tuesday and Wednesday, with lake effect showers possible downwind of the Lakes. Adjusted model guidance to account for lake effect precipitation. Expect mainly rain showers, but with 850mb temperatures dropping to -5c some wet snow flakes are possible well inland from the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Well at least we are starting to see some consistency with a potential storm around the 4th/5th... Latest GFS slides off to the south and east with the trough just starting to go negative tilted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Something is definitely wrong I’ll play with the numbers more later but KBUF briefly made it down to 38. Other stations I have spot checked so far made it down to 33-34. Even for me right by the lake went low enough to get a very light frosty coat. Telling you it’s going to end up snowing with a KBUF temp at 38 and no one will know why. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Obviously not the first time I've seen the moon in the daylight but usually not this early, that I can remember lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: I get a weenie on a post where it can snow in the interior in November. People have lost their mind . Hey, you should feel honored. Central and Western New Yorkers don't hand out free weenies often... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well at least we are starting to see some consistency with a potential storm around the 4th/5th... Latest GFS slides off to the south and east with the trough just starting to go negative tilted . I think the euro coming out soon will show a similar track , but, has been more bullish on snow further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 15 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: So last night it was rainy at 10pm and all the stations were within a half degree of each other. Tonight at 10pm its clear so yeah KBUF running 4-8 degrees warmer that surrounding sites, seems about right? This is just crazy... An interesting data point for sure. Yesterday was wall to wall sun all day so this would continue to support some sort of solar induced urban heat island at that location. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 A few weeks later and we'd be talking major LES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 I think we see a cool first week of November, followed by a mid month warmup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 HWO An inch to an inch and half of additional rainfall is expected Friday into Saturday. This combined with recent heavy rain will maintain high levels on many creeks and rivers, with localized flooding possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Would you look at that....Alaska is above normal, so we would be below normal. Oh, and Miami will be 90 instead of 88. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 6 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: An interesting data point for sure. Yesterday was wall to wall sun all day so this would continue to support some sort of solar induced urban heat island at that location. It would... I have noticed a few times now on nights were it has been rainy that KBUF falls right in line with the nearby stations with very little variance. I'm still not sold on the UHI impact though as I have seen more than a few night were KBUF doesn't spike until a point randomly in the middle of the overnight, hours after sunset. I would assume the UHI effects would start to take hold immediately after sunset and we would see KBUF holding at a slower temperature decline, with the impacts possibly lessening or just being a non factor after a few hours of dark. I'll have to check my notes but I'm pretty sure I had at least one day where it was cloudy and rainy all day then cleared up at night but we still saw the warm temp variance which again would not support the UHI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 3 to 4.5 degrees warmer the entire night last night. The green line station that blips up at 1am looks like it was brought inside for some reason as station warmed to room temperature for a short period. The thing that gets me is the consistency all of these different PWS have with each other. The KBUF line inst even in the same ball park. It's an outlier overnight for whatever reason... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 First wording of "snow" in the forecast.. Obviously would be early morning with a forecast low of 35°, maybe a mangled flake lol Either way a long shot at this point.. Thursday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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