Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[TugHillMatt]

Oh, Sizzlecuse...how you kill me. The highest we got here in the NW burbs was upper 50s. But the Sizzle was at 60, then jumped to 64 to 65 for less than an hour....and then down to 61. These dirty high temps...

 

Meanwhile, Watertown is in the 40s!

[BuffaloWeather]

First snowflakes in this time range. I'm pretty sure I guess Nov 4th like 2 months ago.

[BuffaloWeather]

On 9/15/2021 at 8:03 PM, Luke_Mages said:

Are we playing price is right rules?

if so I’m going for first freeze 11/4

First measurable snowfall 11/11

Going big with 134” snowfall with a bills super bowl win

 

 

On 9/15/2021 at 8:53 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Since we haven't had 3 below normal snowfall years in a row since the 1980s,  I have to go with the law of averages and say above normal snowfall and around normal temps.

First Snowfall: Nov. 7th

First Freeze: Oct. 29th

 

On 9/15/2021 at 10:06 PM, Thinksnow18 said:

First snowfall: November 13th

First Freeze: October 21st

Snowfall: 99”

Temps: +.5 for Dec-Feb

Let's see who wins.

[TugHillMatt]

I hope Luke wins!  

[rochesterdave]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First snowflakes in this time range. I'm pretty sure I guess Nov 4th like 2 months ago.

Nostradamus over here. When will I lose my virginity? 

[wolfie09]

NWS mentions an inverted trough tomorrow..

Potential exist for 2"-3"+ wherever this sets up..(according to guidance)

On Tuesday, parent upper trough will dive toward Mid Atlantic coast
while sfc low continues to deepen significantly off Long Island.
Sharp convergence along inverted trough to northwest of the low with
resurgence of deeper moisture and upper divergence due to jet
lifting ahead of the upper trough will result in rain becoming
widespread again. Heaviest rain amounts of over three-quarters of an
inch will occur from western Finger Lakes eastward, but even areas
over far western NY will see at least a couple tenths in what will
be a damp, dreary day. Much cooler day over the Southern Tier as mid
to upper 60s from today will be replaced by upper 40s to around 50.
Low to mid 50s elsewhere.

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Nostradamus over here. When will I lose my virginity? 

Unfortunately for you, the same day TugHiMatt sees an above average snowfall season. 
 

you poor poor bastard. 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Another overnight top of the hour temp check and no surprise here... KBUF is running 2-3 degrees warmer than all the surrounding PWS locations yet again.  Should be interesting once we get our first "marginal temp" mix event.  KBUF will be showing 37 with snow, maybe they'll check out the issue then...   

[BuffaloWeather]

34 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Another overnight top of the hour temp check and no surprise here... KBUF is running 2-3 degrees warmer than all the surrounding PWS locations yet again.  Should be interesting once we get our first "marginal temp" mix event.  KBUF will be showing 37 with snow, maybe they'll check out the issue then...   

I bet it’s always been like this and we just never noticed. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Taking the mid range with a grain of salt on the details specific to storm tracks... the big take away is a cold shot is coming mid next week, question is how cold?  Might be a little bit early but we just had that pretty decent veterans day snow storm maybe 3-4 years ago?  Think we saw 10-12" of general snow across the area?  We are still a good 2-3 days away from getting a clearer picture on possible storm tracks.  Would love for some early season snow, but kinda hope we get away with a chilly lake effect rain event followed by a season ending hard freeze.  Not sure how everyone else is looking but the trees are freaking me out down on the lake plain area.  I'm old enough to remember when every year by Halloween the leaves were 75% down for the season.  It was a thing every year we wold get the big pumpkin and ghost lawn and leaf bags and i would spend the whole month trying to fill as many as i could to line the yard in front of our street.  This was late 80s early 90s in West Seneca area, had a pretty big lot with tons of huge silver maples so we always had so many leaves in the fall.  I vividly remember the pumpkin bags though as the one Halloween while we were walking home after getting candy we hear the sirens going and fire truck comes flying up the road, can see the fire a few blocks up, looks like our house, we go running up and ends up being a group of kids tried pulling them into a pile in the street and lit them on fire and went running into the woods.  Nothing happened just some burnt up crap in the road.  Sorry getting off topic but just how I remember the trees always being pretty much done dropping by time November hit.  Flash forward to now and I finished packing up the yard on Sunday.  Still have some garden plants like my hosta a bright healthy green.  My strawberry pots are blooming again and I actually have another round of berries trying to grow.  I swear the one maple tree the leaves are getting bigger.  I would have noticed this thing before, it covers my whole hand!  And look at how bright green that is for the end of October.  Notice a few oak trees showing some color and dropping, but most of the maples are either bright green or if they are dropping its just truning brown and drying up.  If we do end up getting snowfall in that Nov2-Nov5 time frame could be some issues.  

[Thinksnow18]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I bet it’s always been like this and we just never noticed. 

And only because I had OCD one morning…you know that’s a terrific point BW…I wonder if when the mice yo the airport was made to now the temperature has slowly increased at that area has become further developed but it wasn’t enough to see a great increase. Now that there’s comparable data it looks much greater. 

[Thinksnow18]

Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Taking the mid range with a grain of salt on the details specific to storm tracks... the big take away is a cold shot is coming mid next week, question is how cold?  Might be a little bit early but we just had that pretty decent veterans day snow storm maybe 3-4 years ago?  Think we saw 10-12" of general snow across the area?  Think we are still a good 2-3 days away from getting a clearer picture on possible storm tracks.  Would love for some early season snow, but kinda hope we get away with a chilly lake effect rain event followed by a season ending hard freeze.  Not sure how everyone else is looking but the trees are freaking me out down on the lake plain area.  I'm old enough to remember when every year by Halloween the leaves were 75% down for the season.  It was a thing every year we wold get the big pumpkin and ghost lawn and leaf bags and i would spend the whole month trying to fill as many as i could to line the yard in front of our street.  This was late 80s early 90s in West Seneca area, had a pretty big lot with tons of huge silver maples so we always had so many leaves in the fall.  I vividly remember the pumpkin bags though as the one Halloween while we were walking home after getting candy we hear the sirens going and fire truck comes flying up the road, can see the fire a few blocks up, looks like our house, we go running up and ends up being a group of kids tried pulling them into a pile in the street and lit them on fire and went running into the woods.  Nothing happened just some burnt up crap in the road.  Sorry getting off topic but just how I remember the trees always being pretty much done dropping by time November hit.  Flash forward to now and I finished packing up the yard on Sunday.  Still have some garden plants like my hosta a bright healthy green.  My strawberry pots are blooming again and I actually have another round of berries trying to grow.  I swear the one maple tree the leaves are getting bigger.  I would have noticed this thing before, it covers my whole hand!  And look at how bright green that is for the end of October.  Notice a few oak trees showing some color and dropping, but most of the maples are either bright green or is they are dropping its just truning brown and drying up.  If we do end up getting snowfall in that Nov2-Nov5 time frame could be some issues.  

We did have an early season storm a week after Halloween. I remember it poured that Halloween night and I was thinking to myself if it was only 10 degrees colder it would’ve been a pretty big snowfall…then about a week later it was…I’m with you a mangled flake or two, even a slushy coating would be great by me. Maybe it’s my superstitious nature but I feel that when we have a big out of season. Snowfall (October to mid November) the following winter season Is a bit of a bust. I don’t have the data to back that up but the 3 years that early significant snows occurred we finished the season below normal in the snowfall department. 

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

We did have an early season storm a week after Halloween. I remember it poured that Halloween night and I was thinking to myself if it was only 10 degrees colder it would’ve been a pretty big snowfall…then about a week later it was…I’m with you a mangled flake or two, even a slushy coating would be great by me. Maybe it’s my superstitious nature but I feel that when we have a big out of season. Snowfall (October to mid November) the following winter season Is a bit of a bust. I don’t have the data to back that up but the 3 years that early significant snows occurred we finished the season below normal in the snowfall department. 

Euro weeklies say we start winter in early Nov right through mid December.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Maybe we will get a 2000-2001 November? I think people remember the Nov 2000 storm, but forget the one just before it. 3 lake effect events for Metro Buffalo in 1 week. Almost 46" that month.

[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

If that 3rd panel comes to fruition I will cancel the intervention I had set up for tug hill 

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe we will get a 2000-2001 November? I think people remember the Nov 2000 storm, but forget the one just before it. 3 lake effect events for Metro Buffalo in 1 week. Almost 46" that month.

What amazed me to this day when I look back on that time frame was how much it WNY was buried under 24+” of snow…that is hard to do in January and February let alone the 3rd week of November 

[wolfie09]

Rain has returned..

Coming down at a solid clip .

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

What amazed me to this day when I look back on that time frame was how much it WNY was buried under 24+” of snow…that is hard to do in January and February let alone the 3rd week of November 

Besides Nov 2014 that was the most snow I've seen on the ground in November. I lived right by the airport for that time period.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Besides Nov 2014 that was the most snow I've seen on the ground in November. I lived right by the airport for that time period.

2000-2001 was statistically our best winter ever.  Check out the snow depth climo segments.  Ranks as the season that saw the most ever days with at least 1" of snow on the ground at 114 days!  That would be the same as having snow on the ground from Nov 1st - Feb 22nd... Every day during that period!  Yes there were thaws in there so not sure how continuous it was but still 114 days is 1/3rd of the entire calendar year that we had snow on the ground.  That is impressive, it even beat out both the winters of 76-77 and 77-78 which were brutally cold and snowy.  But then things get weird as days with 6"+ on the ground was only average at only 48 days.  Then looking at 12"+ days there was only 6?  Seems like the bigger Nov snows melted down pretty quickly but still held a more minimal snow pack for a longer period of time.    

 

Graph directly below, (1"+ of snow on the ground) I would classify a "traditional" winter in the 80-90 days range.  Would you guys agree?  More or Less?  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Wait a minute… I’ve seen this movie before!  And… it cuts wide west!  Gotta admit this is fun watching these runs for enjoyment purposes.  Eventually one of them is going to a stick.  

[Ericjcrash]

Man I wish this was a snowband.

[wolfie09]

1.20" here split between yesterday and overnight, currently 48° and light rain..

[rochesterdave]

[Thinksnow18]

Anyone notice the incredibly heavy band of rain just to our west?

[wolfie09]

Yeah looks pretty much stationary..

[wolfie09]

Plenty of precipitation to get through although this may weaken before getting here..

[CNY_WX]

I moved from Little Falls to Brewerton in November, 1995. That is still the snowiest November on record in Syracuse. I closed on my house on November 9. Closing was scheduled for 10 AM. As I drove up the Thruway I encountered heavy snow around Chittenango. I had a Suzuki Sidekick at the time so I did have 4 wheel drive but going was still extremely slow. I was panicking that I was going to be late for the closing. I made it there about 10:30 and was the first one there!   Ended up with about 8 inches for that event  Heavy lake effect events continued into December  I think the pattern flipped in January  

[CNY_WX]

37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Plenty of precipitation to get through although this may weaken before getting here..

I had 0.68” as of 8:15 AM. Channel 9’s timecast has the rain continuing until midnight .