TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Sierras getting destroyed the next 36 hours. 40-80” That will create a great base for them! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I am doubtful of any legitimate cool downs in the extended range. We've seen this show before. Already, the past two weeks have ended up 10 degrees warmer (at least) than they were forecasted to be in "the extended range." We were "supposed to cool down" this past week and we freakin ended up in the mid 70s (at least in the hell furnace of Sizzlecuse) two days. This upcoming week was supposed to be low 50s, and here we are.... 65 degrees tomorrow and then maybe a couple more 60s days. I refuse to get excited about any cold unless it's actually here and dense and not going to leave at 10:30pm some random night. GFS has problems with long range cold. This entire statement is correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Sierras getting destroyed the next 36 hours. 40-80” Was debating on going up to Yosemite in November. Might have too much snow up there on the peaks already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS has problems with long range cold. This entire statement is correct. And the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: And the Euro? Anything beyond 3-4 days you want to use the GEFS/EPS. Anything beyond 10 days its almost useless. EURO/EPS only goes to day 10 unless its the weeklies which are ok in weeks 1-2 but anything beyond that useless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another record broken? Shocked.................................. Also, that kind of system at that latitude in the Pacific goes along with my idea of doubting any cold getting here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Another record broken? Shocked.................................. Also, that kind of system at that latitude in the Pacific goes along with my idea of doubting any cold getting here soon. Well sometimes systems like this can shake up the entire pattern and bring down some cold air behind them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Well sometimes systems like this can shake up the entire pattern and bring down some cold air behind them. Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Pretty big severe outbreak in midwest, debris to 25k feet. Debris 3 miles wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 GFS and Euro high Res still showing cold dump first week of November, wash rinse repeat, but now even two of the 2 of the 3 local Mets have mentioned an early taste of winter following this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Picked up just under 1/2" liquid overnight, rain has pretty much stopped, now we wait for the coastal to take over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Well I guess it's something to watch lol Need a lot to go right to get accumulating snow first week in November.. Obviously timing off from this far out.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Anything beyond 3-4 days you want to use the GEFS/EPS. Anything beyond 10 days its almost useless. EURO/EPS only goes to day 10 unless its the weeklies which are ok in weeks 1-2 but anything beyond that useless. GFS Operational was much better all last winter as compared to GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well I guess it's something to watch lol Need a lot to go right to get accumulating snow first week in November.. Obviously timing off from this far out.. 222 isn’t even that far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS Operational was much better all last winter as compared to GEFS. Ensembles are always more accurate then OP models. There are charts to show that, have to search them up later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 For Upstate, the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter this year is about 50%. While that sounds like a coin toss, it’s not. There remains a 33% chance that we’ll see a normal winter, which means the likelihood of a colder-than-normal winter is just 17%. Gottschalk cautioned that long-term forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. “The nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, but just less likely,” he said. La Ninas tend to cause a big dip in the jet stream in the middle of the continent; from there, the jet stream rises north and crosses over the Ohio Valley and through Upstate New York. Small swings in the jet stream can put Upstate on the cold or warm side of it, spelling the difference between snow and rain. Link 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Temps so far for Oct: BUF: +9.1 (62.1) ROC: +6.6 WAT: +8.6 SYR: +8.8 BING: +6.4 Warmest October: 1 60.5 1900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For Upstate, the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter this year is about 50%. While that sounds like a coin toss, it’s not. There remains a 33% chance that we’ll see a normal winter, which means the likelihood of a colder-than-normal winter is just 17%. Gottschalk cautioned that long-term forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. “The nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, but just less likely,” he said. La Ninas tend to cause a big dip in the jet stream in the middle of the continent; from there, the jet stream rises north and crosses over the Ohio Valley and through Upstate New York. Small swings in the jet stream can put Upstate on the cold or warm side of it, spelling the difference between snow and rain. Link When is the last below normal winter for temps? 2013-2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Lake Erie at 60 degrees, normal for date is 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: When is the last below normal winter for temps? 2013-2014? For here I think it's 2014-2015 December 37/26 Dep+5 January 26/6 Dep -4 February 20/-1 Dep -12.5 March 35/14 Dep -4.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 GFS looking wetter for CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 I looked through the forums this weekend...and noticed some interesting things. I'll post later. However, it looked like 2014-2015 was a great winter. There was the typical blahness from the Holidays through the first half of January, and then the rest of the winter rocked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Icon sighting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Hanging in the mid 50s in Northern Onondaga county with dreary skies, but I see the southern border of the county up in the hills is 10 degrees warmer in the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Kind of a weird look here, like some sort of ivt.. Either way guidance is showing some "potential" decent rain totals tonight through tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 whiteface 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 All the rain coming through is probably all snow above 4k feet. Going to be 1-2 feet up there I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: whiteface That clearing in the background.... I can already see it: ADKMatt's house! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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