wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Pretty good shot at our first sub 50 high..Temp has actually been dropping the last couple hours from a high of 48.9°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Some fantasy slopfest in the LR.. Granted it's algorithm thing but who cares lol 300+ hours out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 WPC through D5 and D7. Euro through D4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 First time in a while leaning below lol Albeit a small percentage.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 GFS still has a storm signal first week of November..This run it's more of a coastal system but it there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GFS still has a storm signal first week of November..This run it's more of a coastal system but it there.. Just need a little NW jog for me. Jk, too early for that stress but not really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GFS still has a storm signal first week of November..This run it's more of a coastal system but it there.. the bat signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I remember that, I almost went with you that day but think I had to work. With all this in mind let me ask you and the others this: would it be safer to rent a place in the Redfield area and just hunker down during a big LES event? Like get there a day before, ride it out, and leave the next day? I’ve considered it…I wouldn’t drive out in a rural area like that though in whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: With all this in mind let me ask you and the others this: would it be safer to rent a place in the Redfield area and just hunker down during a big LES event? Like get there a day before, ride it out, and leave the next day? I’ve considered it…I wouldn’t drive out in a rural area like that though in whiteout conditions. That’s the only way I’d ever do it again. That is the last place you want to be when it’s ripping like that. Now at an air bnb with a couple drinks and the fireplace roaring inside would be the perfect way to ride one out lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 They have a few places to stay on the Tug. Motel type places for snowmobiling. One of them looks kind of quaint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: GFS still has a storm signal first week of November..This run it's more of a coastal system but it there.. Still has the Lake Effect idea prior to that as well. Nov 2 - Nov 5 time frame. The magic 8 ball knows a big storm of some kind is coming our way! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Sharp temp contract on Monday thanks to the boundary/WF..Not sure how far north that's making it yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Still has the Lake Effect idea prior to that as well. Nov 2 - Nov 5 time frame. The magic 8 ball knows a big storm of some kind is coming our way! It’s crazy to think the last major LES that impacted the city of Buffalo was back in October’06. The drought is real..☹️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 And no those transition bands we’ve had over the years don’t count lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 We cleared out enough overnight to see a little patchy frost with a low of 34.9°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We cleared out enough overnight to see a little patchy frost with a low of 34.9°.. Got down to 32° with a pretty thick frost here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 My thermometer reported a low of 32 but there wasn’t any frost this morning unless it melted before we got up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Looks like WPC upgraded their winter maps for this year, no more circles just a color scheme.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 pair of mid level storms will phase into one new system over the Lower Great Lakes early in the new work week. This will result in a prolonged period of rainy, unsettled weather, although the rain will temporarily give way to fair weather for part of Monday. While rainfall from tonight through Wednesday morning will total as much as two inches, no hydro problems are anticipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 GFS shows a nice dry slot over our area with next system. Would be far less rain than currently predicted by NWS if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Made it down to 39 here in Hannibal must be just close enough to the lake to keep it a little warmer? Beautiful day so far with bright sun and no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 The dry weather will give way to an area of rain that will approach from the south. A strengthening 850H warm front will track north out ahead of an area of low pressure that will be centered over the western Ohio Valley this evening. As the front tracks north, the forcing from the strengthening warm front, combined with a push of moisture from the south, will cause steady rain to push into the Western Southern Tier by the late afternoon. Steadier rainfall will be moderate at times for the Western Southern Tier as it continues to push north. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s in the higher terrain. Tonight, the warm front will continue to push north ahead of the area of low pressure that will be centered over the southern end of Lake Michigan by Monday morning. Steady, moderate rain will track north, nearing the south shore of Lake Ontario by around Midnight tonight, with rainfall tracking over the entire area through the early morning hours. Patchy fog will also be possible tonight with the steadier rainfall that is expected. Temperatures tonight in the low 40s from the higher terrain to the upper 40s for the lower elevations. Rainfall amounts from this afternoon through tonight will generally be in the half to one inch range, with some locally higher amounts possible. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The phasing of two storm systems over the Lower Great Lakes during this period will result in a stretch of unsettled weather that will include rainfall amounts ranging from an inch and a half across the Eastern Lake Ontario region to a half inch near the Pennsylvania border. Fortunately...this will come over a period of two days so hydro issues are not expected. Monday will feature a warm front that will north to Lake Ontario. For our forecast area...this will focus the bulk of rainfall near and east of Lake Ontario with several hours of mild rainfree weather for parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. The widespread rain will rotate back across our region Monday night and Tuesday...as a newly formed sfc low will make its way across Pennsylvania before dropping anchor near Long Island. As the low slowly churns further off the coast Tuesday night and Wednesday...showers will taper off from west to east. NHCan guidance the odd man out the past couple of model runs being way too cold on the backside of the aforementioned sfc low. Have taken a blend of GFS and ECMWF for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Wow. The mid ranges really busted big on this storm. 3” to showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Euro and GFS have temps within 10 days that would be low to mid 40’s for lower elevations and 30’s for higher elevations…both in synch around the 1st few days of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 I am doubtful of any legitimate cool downs in the extended range. We've seen this show before. Already, the past two weeks have ended up 10 degrees warmer (at least) than they were forecasted to be in "the extended range." We were "supposed to cool down" this past week and we freakin ended up in the mid 70s (at least in the hell furnace of Sizzlecuse) two days. This upcoming week was supposed to be low 50s, and here we are.... 65 degrees tomorrow and then maybe a couple more 60s days. I refuse to get excited about any cold unless it's actually here and dense and not going to leave at 10:30pm some random night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Could be some upper 30s tomorrow.. In the Adirondacks lol NWS has gone back and forth several times between low 50s and temps near 60° tomorrow.. Different story south of Lake Ontario to the Finger Lakes though as sfc warm front is forecast to lift through those areas allowing any rain to cut out and sfc temps to rise well into the 60s. Closer to where northeast low-level flow persists temps will be stuck in the mid to upper 50s. Any shift of the sfc boundary will alter these temperature expectations so will need to keep eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Dave Nicosia the NWS Bing MIC is ready for winter... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Sierras getting destroyed the next 36 hours. 40-80” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 The two globals GFS and Euro hi res have consistently been all over a cold dump about a week out…just the first couple days of November but many chances for systems to bring colder air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Could be some upper 30s tomorrow.. In the Adirondacks lol NWS has gone back and forth several times between low 50s and temps near 60° tomorrow.. Different story south of Lake Ontario to the Finger Lakes though as sfc warm front is forecast to lift through those areas allowing any rain to cut out and sfc temps to rise well into the 60s. Closer to where northeast low-level flow persists temps will be stuck in the mid to upper 50s. Any shift of the sfc boundary will alter these temperature expectations so will need to keep eye on I am greatly "amused" how the warmth maxima curves at its highest latitude right over the Syracuse area. It's like reaching out just to tick me off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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