BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 Average high/low at Buffalo for Nov 1st is 53/38, by Nov 30th its 41/29. Need pretty big departures in beginning of month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 That's a strong lake effect rain event first week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 Actually turns to snow at end of run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 First weenie of the season 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Actually turns to snow at end of run. stayed up to watch that play out seeing it wind up the way it did. somethings coming in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. I did a solo hike of Wright Peak about 5 years ago in mid February. Not smart…Wasn’t a particularly stormy day. But once above tree line winds were over 75 mph with near zero visibility. Got disoriented and left my backpack near a cairn in bid to make the summit (hiked so far to get there how could I turn back?). Dumb. Made it down but looking back did a lot of things wrong and could have really gone sideways. Entirely different world in the High Peaks in wintertime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 First official frost of the season here. Just went out to the dumpster to throw out garbage and scope things out. Pretty thick frost on cars and rooftops. I live at the top of a hill too, so it may be even heavier at the bottom. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: First official frost of the season here. Just went out to the dumpster to throw out garbage and scope things out. Pretty thick frost on cars and rooftops. I live at the top of a hill too, so it may be even heavier at the bottom. No Sizzle here in Amsterdam. Actually in Brugge Belgium now, which incredibly nice medieval city. They made a movie here circa 2008, "In Bruges." Good flick. Weather has been very changeable and chilly. Locals said Summer was mostly crappy. No Amstersizzle for them. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Actually turns to snow at end of run. I mean it’s about 3 weeks after he infamous October surprise so truthfully this could have legs, especially if it’s over night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: No Sizzle here in Amsterdam. Actually in Brugge Belgium now, which incredibly nice medieval city. They made a movie here circa 2008, "In Bruges." Good flick. Weather has been very changeable and chilly. Locals said Summer was mostly crappy. No Amstersizzle for them. You're hilarious. Question: Is it normal for men to cut off their penises and throw them in urinals there in Amsternosizzle? Asking for a friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. We have avoided being that high during storms. Tug just feels so exposed to me during high intensity LE events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 34 at 10 PM and we didn’t even end up with frost here in Brewerton. Clouds moved in overnight and the temperature was up to 37 by midnight. In the low 40s this morning. Somebody must have left a door open in Sizzlecuse and some of the heat escaped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I did a solo hike of Wright Peak about 5 years ago in mid February. Not smart…Wasn’t a particularly stormy day. But once above tree line winds were over 75 mph with near zero visibility. Got disoriented and left my backpack near a cairn in bid to make the summit (hiked so far to get there how could I turn back?). Dumb. Made it down but looking back did a lot of things wrong and could have really gone sideways. Entirely different world in the High Peaks in wintertime. Wrights one of the windiest high peaks, the exposed top with no trees feature the highest wind speeds. I was on Cascade in winter and had to hold onto the rock as I would literally blow away if I didn't secure myself. Most insane winds I've ever felt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, cny rider said: We have avoided being that high during storms. Tug just feels so exposed to me during high intensity LE events. I’ve chased on the tug a couple times and it’s truly frightening when your in 4-6”/hr + rates with how truly desolate it is up there. Also so wide open you really do feel exposed as you said. Lots of spots that don’t even have cell service so if you go off the road all I can say is you better have a lot of gas left in your tank and good luck. I had a bad experience chasing up there in the early 2010s (don’t remember the year). I went off the road during heavy rates and crashed into a Boulder and totaled my car. I was bruised up good and fractured my right arm but was otherwise lucky. Somehow even with as few cars as their were up there I was somehow followed by an electrical company truck which was nice enough to have seen me go off the road and pulled me out. My car was very badly damaged but I managed to make it to Pulaski before the vehicle died. Was a very humbling experience to say the least. It is no joke up there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 29.0 here this morning. Keep it dry through Sunday evening so we can get our last baseball game in, then bring on winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’ve chased on the tug a couple times and it’s truly frightening when your in 4-6”/hr + rates with how truly desolate it is up there. Also so wide open you really do feel exposed as you said. Lots of spots that don’t even have cell service so if you go off the road all I can say is you better have a lot of gas left in your tank and good luck. I had a bad experience chasing up there in the early 2010s (don’t remember the year). I went off the road during heavy rates and crashed into a Boulder and totaled my car. I was bruised up good and fractured my right arm but was otherwise lucky. Somehow even with as few cars as their were up there I was somehow followed by an electrical company truck which was nice enough to have seen me go off the road and pulled me out. My car was very badly damaged but I managed to make it to Pulaski before the vehicle died. Was a very humbling experience to say the least. It is no joke up there. Try riding snowmobile on the Tug during a big lake effect storm. Done it many times and no ides how the group made it back but we did lol. I remember one times a few year back couldn't see the snowmobile 5 ft in front of me circling around in a field trying to figure out where the damn trail was haha. It's insane up there during lake effect storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 You have to use GPS locators in both locations. I was talking to a guy who had finished his 46 in the late 1990s and he told me he got stuck up on Mt Marcy for 2 days, thought he wasn't going to make it. Ever since that day he prepped his bag with extra supplies for winter hikes. My winter pack is like 10 lbs heavier than my summer pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’ve chased on the tug a couple times and it’s truly frightening when your in 4-6”/hr + rates with how truly desolate it is up there. Also so wide open you really do feel exposed as you said. Lots of spots that don’t even have cell service so if you go off the road all I can say is you better have a lot of gas left in your tank and good luck. I had a bad experience chasing up there in the early 2010s (don’t remember the year). I went off the road during heavy rates and crashed into a Boulder and totaled my car. I was bruised up good and fractured my right arm but was otherwise lucky. Somehow even with as few cars as their were up there I was somehow followed by an electrical company truck which was nice enough to have seen me go off the road and pulled me out. My car was very badly damaged but I managed to make it to Pulaski before the vehicle died. Was a very humbling experience to say the least. It is no joke up there. I remember that, I almost went with you that day but think I had to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 Long range looks up and down, right around average for next 2 weeks. The warm up looks like 1/2 warmish days next week, then another cool down for weekend. I would go above average snowfall for November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 I went on to one road last year near Barnes corners that was barely wide enough to fit a car lol Needless to say the road just ended, never seen anything like it lol One min on a dirt road, the next in the woods..It was tough turning around.. Thankfully it was only lightly snowing..Fun times.. Thinking about go back this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 GFS still has it but more air is slightly warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 A widespread soaking rainfall is expected from Sunday night into Tuesday, with the potential to result in up to two inches of rain in some areas. Rainfall during this time may result in poor drainage flooding in some of these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: A widespread soaking rainfall is expected from Sunday night into Tuesday, with the potential to result in up to two inches of rain in some areas. Rainfall during this time may result in poor drainage flooding in some of these areas. Wow just perfect timing, fence install monday/tuesday. Waited 2 years for this day and the worst weather of the last 2 years comes. I'm pretty sure my fence is cursed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: 34 at 10 PM and we didn’t even end up with frost here in Brewerton. Clouds moved in overnight and the temperature was up to 37 by midnight. In the low 40s this morning. Somebody must have left a door open in Sizzlecuse and some of the heat escaped. There was frost on the cars and rooftops at 1 in the morning last night. I knew it would all be melted overnight with Sizzlecuse always producing its own heat (with the aid of the relentless southerly breezes and clouds). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range looks up and down, right around average for next 2 weeks. The warm up looks like 1/2 warmish days next week, then another cool down for weekend. I would go above average snowfall for November. Oddly I don’t see many warming days and if the GFS is to be believed (big if) then there’s quite a bit of wintry weather over the next 2 weeks. Each run gets colder snd colder and euro high res seems to agree. That timeframe of November 3-6 would be watched 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS still has it but more air is slightly warmer That’s odd because it’s almost -6c in that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 It's closer to the surface that's the issue verbatim..925 mb above freezing as well as BL in the low-mid 40s.. Actually kbuf is one of the warmer spots with an onshore flow from a warm lake..It will be different soon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s odd because it’s almost -6c in that map -6 in early Nov doesn't cut it. In late Nov it could. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 GFS is more "showery" than heavy rain due to the transfer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now