wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Overcast skies have made an appearance, dropping the temperatures around 3°-4°..Still managed 68° earlier this afternoon.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Light rain shower here right now. And i just fired up the pellet grill a half hour ago WTF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Looking back at my weather journal for this day in recent years and stumbled across this odd entry. I have a vague recollection of this, but damn...what an odd one. "A EF0 Tornado touched down in West Seneca in the middle of heavy graupel and lake effect rain event. A strong front dropped south igniting already strong lake effect rain. Somehow a tornado formed in this unusual airmass causing minor damage. I think it was more of a hybrid waterspout, and would like to see the radar leading up to this event. Regardless, a cool and very rare event. Also (for future reading), there is a documented Tornado in a snow event on the Eastern end of Lake Ontario in Canada. “A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado” Now I know both Sharknados and Snownados are real things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Area of light showers associated with an incoming minor upper impulse and within weak warm air advection just south of a surface boundary stalled to the north of the U.S./Canadian border. Hi-res guidance having a difficult time picking up on this activity early in the day, but has improved of late indicating this scattered activity will push through the area from west to east through the rest of the afternoon. A few localized spots could pick up a few hundredths, but likely no more than that. This activity should diminish this evening as the upper impulse passes with a period of mainly dry weather into the overnight night, although a few showers are possible associated with continued weak warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 Normal high/low is 58/43 at KBUF. Today was 66/42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 More sizzle? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Looking back at my weather journal for this day in recent years and stumbled across this odd entry. I have a vague recollection of this, but damn...what an odd one. "A EF0 Tornado touched down in West Seneca in the middle of heavy graupel and lake effect rain event. A strong front dropped south igniting already strong lake effect rain. Somehow a tornado formed in this unusual airmass causing minor damage. I think it was more of a hybrid waterspout, and would like to see the radar leading up to this event. Regardless, a cool and very rare event. Also (for future reading), there is a documented Tornado in a snow event on the Eastern end of Lake Ontario in Canada. “A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado” It was a waterspout prior to that over Lake Erie and then briefly touched back down over West Seneca. If it came down in a forest or field it probably would have went unnoticed but instead it ripped the roof off that apartment building. Second loop on the radar zooms in pretty close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 I don’t know about you guys but this junky is getting itchy for the good stuff. I literally cannot wait! Bring it! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: More sizzle? It's never going to end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 20 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Forecasted high for tomorrow is 70. I'm still going with my 74 to 75 degree call. We'll hit 70 by 11:30 am. I get an A+ for today. I have the freakin Sizzlecuse down. We indeed were 70 by 11:30am AND the temp somehow jumped a couple degrees, as it always does, to 74 degrees before it fell right back two degrees. lol It's so predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Sizzle Sizzle lol In reality these are low-mid 60s, still nice weather just warmer than normal lol It's also the warmest frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 42 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's never going to end! It may be a rough winter. This is exactly what happened in 2011-2012. Lets hope it doesn't last through winter, it rarely does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Sizzle Sizzle lol In reality these are low-mid 60s, still nice weather just warmer than normal lol It's also the warmest frame.. Yeah that time period is pretty locked in for warmth I think. Its on all ENS guidance and close enough for somewhat good accuracy 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It may be a rough winter. This is exactly what happened in 2011-2012. Lets hope it doesn't last through winter, it rarely does. Why does this keep happening? It's like, no matter what indices there are, the Pacific sucks anymore for real, lasting winter in the eastern half of the U.S. It's becoming a yearly setup in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Why does this keep happening? It's like, no matter what indices there are, the Pacific sucks anymore for real, lasting winter in the eastern half of the U.S. It's becoming a yearly setup in the Pacific. I'm not sure, but the cold pool of water in the gulf of alaska is the last thing you ever want to see right before winter starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm not sure, but the cold pool of water in the gulf of alaska is the last thing you ever want to see right before winter starts. At the same time, Hudson Bay torches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Just perusing the forum from January 2017 and there was much discussion about the awfulness of that winter season (and several consecutive winters before) as well. The second half of winter got better, obviously...These long snow-droughts each winter with huge warm ridges seem pretty common. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that time period is pretty locked in for warmth I think. Its on all ENS guidance and close enough for somewhat good accuracy Im not that concerned yet... For you guys though that need and feed off LES Id be getting a bit nervous. All the GTA needs is a few decent 6-10" snowstorms and we fly past worst case scenario. Most of the GTA only averages 40-50" a year so thats why we have a much lower ceiling for what can be called a good winter. Ideally Id love for winter to play out with early season snowstorms from Mid November-Early December the type that brings first real cold of the season and a wet snow of 4-6", decent cold and one big December storm of 8-12" a week before Christmas. Cold New Years and another decent storm to start January and then torch and early spring with little to no snow in March I would give a winter like that an A+ haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Just perusing the forum from January 2017 and there was much discussion about the awfulness of that winter season (and several consecutive winters before) as well. The second half of winter got better, obviously...These long snow-droughts each winter with huge warm ridges seem pretty common. Yeah long range forecasting isnt that accurate, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah long range forecasting isnt that accurate, you never know. Interesting thing...reading the forum for a storm that had the "perfect track" for CNY at the end of January and there were boundary layer issues with temps....supposed to get 4 to 10 inches of snow and everybody ended up with junk. As you've said, climate change is real. What used to be "enough cold" for snow from synoptic systems just doesn't exist anymore. We need an extra cold air supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Winter in the adk 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Ah, snow. And there was peace across the land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ah, snow. And there was peace across the land. It's a different world up there. Winter is Late Sep until early June lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Checking temperature obs this morning. I just can't believe how many times our temperatures have been equivalent or warmer than cities across the deep south this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Rain looks to be ahead of schedule. Should be here In WNY by 1pm. Most models are way behind in the late afternoon early ev…at least per WIVB this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 How is the northwest always colder then normal now? That’s like 5 straight years… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 I guess take the good with the bad? Lol Hopefully+anomalies aren't to high lol We can afford some just not a lot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: How is the northwest always colder then normal now? That’s like 5 straight years… Its also only in the “leaning above” category which means plenty of cold shots, line it up right with the moisture and boom… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now