wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Ptype will be mainly rain next weekend, but with H85 temps flirting with -5c or even -6c at times later in the weekend per some of the colder guidance, could see some wet snowflakes across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario (Sat night and Sun Night) and possibly even over western NY (Sun night). Trough axis will begin shifting east next Monday but next system could quickly bring another chance of rain. Pops were kept in the slight chance range for now. Temps will be similar or even cooler to what just occurred with daytime highs Saturday through Monday only in the 50s and even staying in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. Nighttime lows for all but the immediate lake plains (around 40) will drop into the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Binghamton radar is next for an upgrade.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I could see there being graupel showers in many locations of Upstate NY later this weekend and early next week. Tis the season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 8 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Calling the temperature police!!! 40 at Williamsville, 36 at Lancaster and…drum roll please…46 at KBUF!!! How… Ran numbers for this morning.. interesting for sure! Couple things I see... 1. There was an odd temperature flux at all of the PWS this morning between roughly 5am and 7am. Stations were all rather flat lined from 12am-5am, but then every station saw a quick rise in temp of roughly 2 degrees around the same time and then quickly had their temperatures crash back down by 2-3 degrees the next hour. Handful of stations actually set their daily minimums following the temperature crash. This temperature swing looks like it rolled across the area as there was a delay in a few of the stations showing this rise and fall. Depending when you saw the temp map this could have shown a larger than reality variance with real time reporting. I believe this was the result of lake influence. Radar check from around 6am shows a faint convergence area lifting from the NY shoreline up towards Ontario before drifting back south after suinrise. Very likely this area of convergence lifted up some of the warmer air over the lake and pushed it across the area bringing a momentary warming as it drifted northward and a rapid cool down as it pushed back south. I'll see how to post the radar loop. 2. Regardless of this neat tidbit here when looking just at the 12am-5am time before this added noise, KBUF is still running to dang warm! Solid 3 degrees above the other stations average from 2am-5am. These short terms unexplained time frames of higher than average departures during the early morning hours continues to be a thing... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Here’s a radar shot from this morning. Can see that small line lifting up basically opening the door and letting a little warmth spill into the area before closing it back up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ran numbers for this morning.. interesting for sure! Couple things I see... 1. There was an odd temperature flux at all of the PWS this morning between roughly 5am and 7am. Stations were all rather flat lined from 12am-5am, but then every station saw a quick rise in temp of roughly 2 degrees around the same time and then quickly had their temperatures crash back down by 2-3 degrees the next hour. Handful of stations actually set their daily minimums following the temperature crash. This temperature swing looks like it rolled across the area as there was a delay in a few of the stations showing this rise and fall. Depending when you saw the temp map this could have shown a larger than reality variance with real time reporting. I believe this was the result of lake influence. Radar check from around 6am shows a faint convergence area lifting from the NY shoreline up towards Ontario before drifting back south after suinrise. Very likely this area of convergence lifted up some of the warmer air over the lake and pushed it across the area bringing a momentary warming as it drifted northward and a rapid cool down as it pushed back south. I'll see how to post the radar loop. 2. Regardless of this neat tidbit here when looking just at the 12am-5am time before this added noise, KBUF is still running to dang warm! Solid 3 degrees above the other stations average from 2am-5am. These short terms unexplained time frames of higher than average departures during the early morning hours continues to be a thing... I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this. NW wind at sunset to a SW wind at sunrise would explain the temp getting warmer, nothing hugely odd about that. But I still do feel there is something corrupting the temperate data at KBUF for at least a portion of the over night period. Need to be mindful of the lake influence right now. Didn't have as much of an impact last month but now when the area in general is sitting next to a lake that is 25 degrees warmer doesn't take much for some warm air to spill in. I really think it has a lot to do with the topography of the area. I know we can see the impacts with the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills and even the Niagara Escarpment on a large scale view of WNY but were talking about going down into like town by town changes in elevation. Don't even know if or where you could find resources that would have fine detailed maps like this of say just Erie County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Seems to be the"consensus" for this winter.. Guess only time will tell lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Winter outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ohio shoreline seems to be a good spot for some nice spout catches lately. I can't get anything more than a partial funnel on our end of the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wow, SW Lake Erie gets way better waterspouts then we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 Yesterday was KBUFS first negative day all October at -1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Winter outlook Can only go down from here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 12 days until we open the winter thread up on Nov 1st. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Interesting interactive topographic mapping I found. Never realized there was a small elevated "plateau" that comes down the 90 corridor and runs right into downtown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Binghamton radar is next for an upgrade.. Great! Oh wait, I don’t use the NWS radar any more because it doesn’t function. Any chance this will address the issues with their new radar display? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Great! Oh wait, I don’t use the NWS radar any more because it doesn’t function. Any chance this will address the issues with their new radar display? Probably doesn’t have to do with their worse than useless interactive software. Just terrible stuff. Whoever ok’d that should be fired. No, tortured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 It's interesting that DPs are in the upper 30s at KSYR but around 50° at all the local WU stations.. Must be some drier air around there, either way it was a pleasant day, 63° for the high, gusty winds.. Temps starting to drop now.. Unfortunately I think the radar will remain the same lol I use WU and they will be effected as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Great! Oh wait, I don’t use the NWS radar any more because it doesn’t function. Any chance this will address the issues with their new radar display? The crappy user friendliness of the NWS site is all software related and really has nothing to do with the radar itself. This repair is more of a hardware fix to keep the radar mechanically functioning. As far as I know nothing else would be changing. It is amazing just how much better the “free” radars are compared to the NWS site. Feed from the same doppler data and it’s just hands down how bad the NWS radar site is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 You guys are talking about BUF coming in warm at mid 40s, but then again, you've got Sizzlecuse that can't even get below that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Interesting interactive topographic mapping I found. Never realized there was a small elevated "plateau" that comes down the 90 corridor and runs right into downtown. Now you see why the “transition zone” is the transition zone. Lines up exactly with that area of lower elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 All these new radars should be fun this winter! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Now you see why the “transition zone” is the transition zone. Lines up exactly with that area of lower elevation. Wow, that is crazy. I never knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Probably won't be dropping much this evening unless this changes lol Temp has actually gone up a little lol I'm sure this onshore flow is keeping the dews higher as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Drought buster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Drought buster? Set the over under for snowfall in the Sierras at 100”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Anybody have any good Fall color? The colors are awful around here this year. Whatever color there is, is very muted. The leaves were pretty much blowing straight off the trees today. With all the green still left, I am hopeful we can still see some vibrant colors the next couple weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Set the over under for snowfall in the Sierras at 100”? Way way over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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