Thinksnow18 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its warmer than average all the time, so its tough to predict below normal temps for 3 consecutive months now adays, even though I'm tempted to this year. I’m curious about pattern recognition memory. The PV starting off weak could benefit us as the winter unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Always tough to get those temps down with that toasty lake lol This is the coldest frame on the euro.. Monday and Tuesday have a shot at upper 30s as well.. We are now at the point where we should expect that on a nightly basis.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: CFS for next few months. You rarely see this. That's about the best forecast you could get these days for a winter forecast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Always tough to get those temps down with that toasty lake lol This is the coldest frame on the euro.. Monday and Tuesday have a shot at upper 30s as well.. We are now at the point where we should expect that on a nightly basis.. The lake absolutely does no good for us during the summer in keeping us cooler down here, but it keeps us warmer during the cool seasons. Go figure. At least it benefits us with lake effect snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: That's about the best forecast you could get these days for a winter forecast! The only one with any type of good accuracy is November as its only 2 weeks away, the rest are not too accurate. Still nice to see as they are usually all above average all the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 whiteface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Mt colden 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 I'm at 38/46 peaks so only 8 left. Thinking of doing 1-2 this winter, should finish next summer/fall. My long term plan is to do all 111 4K+ peaks in the northeast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 First came the panic commentary about the "coming bitter cold winter". Then, almost like magic, some firms and agencies dedicated to forecasting, proclaimed "no winter expected". Now you and I have been through this routine in previous autumns. As always, when presented with two extremes, the proper course is somewhere in the middle. The upcoming NDJFM period will prove to be no different. I think we should look at the most important players in the low sun period arena. We can start with the La Nina episode. The ENSO signature is very real, destined like last winter to reach a moderate-to-strong rating (I will say -1.5 deg C differential in sector 3.4). The cooling is not making it to the westernmost area of the Pacific Ocean, which means that tropical cyclone production may remain in play to the right of the Orient during much of November. With percolations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to the left of the International Dateline, there will be chances for ridge formation in Alaska and northwestern Canada. But mostly in a transient manner. We again see impressive subtropical jet stream formation, often depressed to very low latitudes into northwestern Mexico, Texas and Florida. That was evident last year, and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is similar to 2020 and can be used as an analog. Repeated reformation of both the Gulf Of Alaska Low, in ever-deeper intensities and cold pooling, and teh recent emergence of mA vortices over the Grand Banks/Flemish Cap are also a cold teleconnection for the eastren two-thirds of the continent. In a La Nina, the pools of cold air and vorticity come across the Pacific Northwest into the Prairie Provinces or Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. So a good deal of the U.S., above Interstate 70 and to the left of the Appalachian Mountains, should be turning colder this November. The x-factor here: will we see a late October storm that draws moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, and targets the Eastern Seaboard? It could happen, even if that is not apparent on any of the computer schemes. Since another vortex is likely to form over Newfoundland, energy from the polar westerlies might link or phase with a tropical or subtropical impulse. If that happens, a somewhat more meaningful cold intrusion into the eastern U.S. may occur by the second week of November. Source 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index favors La Niña to continue through the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus also anticipates La Niña to continue through the winter, with ENSO-neutral predicted to return during March-May 2022. Because of the recent oceanic cooling and coupling to the atmosphere, forecasters now anticipate a 57% chance of one season (November-January) reaching -1.0°C or less in the Niño-3.4 index. Thus, at its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored. In summary, La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to continue with an 87% chance of La Niña in December 2021- February 2022 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. October 21st). Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Last 3 months average weak nino "ish"..Last year peak quarterly was -1.3(ond) pretty close to strong status, majority of winter was in a moderate phase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 I’m down for La Niña: https://www.rochesterfirst.com/weather/weather-blog/taking-a-look-back-at-some-of-rochesters-biggest-snowstorms/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Euro weeklies control run, posted on another board, pretty much through November.. Source 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I’m down for La Niña: https://www.rochesterfirst.com/weather/weather-blog/taking-a-look-back-at-some-of-rochesters-biggest-snowstorms/ Well our worst ever winters were also Nina 2011-2012 and the last 2 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Just ridiculous. Syracuse has gotta be one of the biggest victims of Climate Change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Through mid month.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Came up on my timeline today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Euro weeklies control run, posted on another board, pretty much through November.. Source That’s a lot of cold opportunities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s a lot of cold opportunities Yeah, but I don't trust any LR guidance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Calling the temperature police!!! 40 at Williamsville, 36 at Lancaster and…drum roll please…46 at KBUF!!! How… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 First night in the 30s here, 39.4 degrees here now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 40 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Calling the temperature police!!! 40 at Williamsville, 36 at Lancaster and…drum roll please…46 at KBUF!!! How… 36? Probably some frost in a few places over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: First night in the 30s here, 39.4 degrees here now. Again…46 at KBUF…and aren’t you near the lake now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I think some could struggle to get out of the 40s this weekend into early next week.. Right now the forecast is 50-51 through that period..I think it will also be the end of growing season for some, especially away from the lake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 These aren't necessarily highs but early afternoon temps on the euro Saturday through Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 Unfortunately I don't get excited for cold, only snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 Looks like we're going to get a stronger Nina than last year https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/#data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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