TugHillMatt Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Revracer800 said: Be digging out from feet of white gold lol. We better get this setup a couple times this winter! I want to be reading about drifts building up in the ditch in your front yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 The one thing I'll say is it's hard to compare, at least precipitation wise.."Warmth" holds more moisture than cold dry air..DPs for example wouldn't be near 50°.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We better get this setup a couple times this winter! I want to be reading about drifts building up in the ditch in your front yard. Hahaha. Right now there is 4' of water in my ditch lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Hahaha. Right now there is 4' of water in my ditch lol. We know we've had lots of rain when you start talking about your front yard being a pond. You need to level that thing off. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Roughly half way through meteorological fall, and this has been the warmest such stretch on record by a long shot (almost a degree above 1881). This coming on the heels of one of the hottest summers on record. Not too surprising to see Lake Erie water temperatures setting daily record highs. Other recent warm falls on the top ten list include 2007, 2016, 2017, and 2018. It probably doesn't "feel" as warm as it actually is, because of how many recent years show up. 4 of the top 8 warmest early fall periods have occurred in the last six years. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Similar conditions in Syracuse and Erie (2nd warmest starts to fall). Erie is 0.1 degrees below 1881, and Syracuse is 0.2 degrees below 1931. Records don't extend back into the 1800s there, so no data for 1881. It looks like 1881 and 1931 had early autumns with similar warmth to this one. Syracuse Erie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 An upper level trough will move across the region late in the work week and persist through next weekend. Showers will spread across western and north central NY ahead of a cold front Thursday-Friday. The associated area of low pressure will be stretched along the cold front to the north creating an area of increased convergence near our region. A shortwave trough and exiting upper level jet will create strong synoptic forcing which increases the chance for a widespread, soaking rain through Friday. Cold air will rush into the region Friday night into Saturday. Lake effect rain showers will increase in coverage with 850mb temperatures dropping to at least -2C. Some guidance depicts it may be colder which could result in some snowflakes mixing in across the higher terrain Saturday night-Sunday. Temperatures start off in the low to mid 60s Thursday. They will take a dive Friday and into the weekend with highs in the low 50s. Lows will likely reach the 30s across the higher terrain beginning Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 GFS is probably running a little to cool.(as usual)But euro also showing some 30s from time to time.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Some decent snow on the ADK high peaks today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 lake erie spout cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 I caved. Got down to 57° in the house again and switched the heat on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I caved. Got down to 57° in the house again and switched the heat on. I was actually looking forward to it (first time ever?) to cycle the air and start drying things out. We have a few things in the house that have swollen worse than any of the past 5 years of living here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 9 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Heck yes. Let's get the first freeze on the board. Oswego may take a little longer thanks to being right on Ontario. You finally tired of this ridiculous southern-like October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Whoop, there it is. Temperature forecast for Wednesday officially in the 70s. Been watching it go up and up each day...I knew it was coming. By the time Wednesday gets here, it'll hit 74-75 degrees here. Doesn't matter about sun angle... latitude.... etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 47 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I caved. Got down to 57° in the house again and switched the heat on. Turned mine back on this morning too. 59° in the house with a forecast high of 47°, I figured it was time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: You finally tired of this ridiculous southern-like October? I'm flying to Amsterdam tomorrow and then Berlin on the weekend. Temps look chilly compared to what we've had the past 2 months. At least today and tomorrow will acclimatize me a bit to cooler weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Some lake effect showers still ongoing..Picked up around 0.40" overnight, 2.35' the last couple/few days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 20 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Yup, just kills me....knowing how much snow this persistent band could have been.... Fact. My 2 day rainfall total was 2.44" with over an inch of Lake effect type rain...almost never happens when it's colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, winter_rules said: I was actually looking forward to it (first time ever?) to cycle the air and start drying things out. We have a few things in the house that have swollen worse than any of the past 5 years of living here! Same thing here. One bathroom door began sticking a bit, actually during Summer. Never saw that in past 15 years in this house. I started looking for door/hinge misalignment but everything looks tight. Weird. Another downpour from the lake just started. With small graupel mixed in....A month later and this event would be Snowvemberish... This could be my first frozen precip of season... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 51 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: Turned mine back on this morning too. 59° in the house with a forecast high of 47°, I figured it was time. I turned my heat on yesterday. It was about 65 and the house had that damp feeling. My wife had her Covid booster Saturday and she was complaining about being cold so I caved. I looked at the radar about an hour ago and thought we might be getting a break from the rain but the rain that was north of here has dropped south. So sick of this, it’s like Chinese water torture. My yard is like the Cicero swamp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Whoop, there it is. Temperature forecast for Wednesday officially in the 70s. Been watching it go up and up each day...I knew it was coming. By the time Wednesday gets here, it'll hit 74-75 degrees here. Doesn't matter about sun angle... latitude.... etc... Yeah, looks like the return of the SE ridge, at least for a few days , until the next cold front sweeps through, looking chilly by weeks end, low 50s and upper 30s.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 50 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Same thing here. One bathroom door began sticking a bit, actually during Summer. Never saw that in past 15 years in this house. I started looking for door/hinge misalignment but everything looks tight. Weird. Another downpour from the lake just started. With small graupel mixed in....A month later and this event would be Snowvemberish... This could be my first frozen precip of season... I thought it was just me. My bedroom door had been shutting hard the last few weeks and the door jamb looked all out of sorts especially the bottom . I ended up reshiming it and it seems to straighten out yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 22 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Guys, gut thoughts on the upcoming season? I’ve seen some fairly pessimistic guidance over the last couple weeks and also some ok stuff. I’m hopeful but it’s just based on anecdotal lifetime experience. We’ve now endured three tepid winters and I feel like that cycle has run its course. I’m hoping on some prolonged cold and some solid LES. It would be nice to not be in the 50’s on Christmas! Can we avoid the dreaded SE ridge? Will November and April steal the cold? Will we only have one good month like last year? Or can pull out a freezer like early 2000’s? I, for one, think we are overdue for a blockbuster storm! A crippler! Lay down your predictions! My thoughts are we haven't had 3 years of below average snowfall in Buffalo since the 80s. Syracuse hasn't had 4 below average snowfall years in decades. The top analogs all look okay, once again the Pacific is going to control our weather. The best thing going for us is a weak polar vortex. Also temperature patterns go in 3-4 month cycles on average. October likely ends as the warmest October on record. September finished at +3.1, August at +5.3. We likely get at least one below average month between Nov-March, most likely 2. In that case I see us finishing 5-10% above average snowfall with slightly above average temps. With a SE ridge, our region should feature many chances at synoptic events. I think farther NW than last years events. I think winter starts in Mid Nov and we see an earlier end to winter than the last few seasons. I think we get a warmer March/April then average. Bookmark this post to show me how wrong I was at the end of winter. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 CFS for next few months. You rarely see this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Whoop, there it is. Temperature forecast for Wednesday officially in the 70s. Been watching it go up and up each day...I knew it was coming. By the time Wednesday gets here, it'll hit 74-75 degrees here. Doesn't matter about sun angle... latitude.... etc... Sizzle Sizzle... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Hijacked this off another board.. CFS for mid November.. Source 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Hijacked this off another board.. CFS for mid November.. Source Not too far out either. That's a lake effect signal if I've ever seen one. Let's hope its 2nd half of November. Lots of temp issues for the first 2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not too far out either. That's a lake effect signal if I've ever seen one. Let's hope its 2nd half of November. Lots of temp issues for the first 2 weeks. There are some very good signals and astonishingly good agreement on the global models that November looks active and colder later in the month. Seeing the CFS show the only month above avg being December was also surprising. We might have a good chance at a decent winter this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: There are some very good signals and astonishingly good agreement on the global models that November looks active and colder later in the month. Seeing the CFS show the only month above avg being December was also surprising. We might have a good chance at a decent winter this year. The only month above average is January. That is our coldest month so even slightly above equates to snow in January. This is for Dec 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Its warmer than average all the time, so its tough to predict below normal temps for 3 consecutive months now adays, even though I'm tempted to this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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