SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No power for 2 weeks. My dad bought a generator a few months before and hooked it up directly to circuit breaker to power essential items. We all slept by the fireplace for 2 weeks in the family room. Lived about 2 miles from airport for that one. Was in West Seneca at the time. Had power back on within 3 days here. Longgg nights pulling buckets out of the sump pump pit the night that all melted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I love checking out webcams...first winter storm webcam chase of the season. Looks like Rapid City changed over to snow already (earlier than expected) and here's Deadwood, SD. Looks like some heavy, wet snow! Webcams – Visitor Services | Deadwood, South Dakota There was snow falling when I was in Wyoming in August when I was there. Enough to cover the ground above 9k feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 19 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Happy anniversary it’s 85 degrees here today and 15 years ago 2 feet of snow Is it just me or are fall LES events more and more rare recently? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 66 already to start the day? Warmer in Buffalo right now than the gulf coast of Northern Florida. Like our own little Oasis here… Line marks 65 degrees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 66 already to start the day? Warmer in Buffalo right now than the gulf coast of Northern Florida. Like our own little Oasis here… Line marks 65 degrees. And I thought I was toasty at 54° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 BUF at +11.5 lol Average monthly is 67 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 Average high/low today is 61/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 ..Active Pattern with strong cold front passage and then prolonged lake effect rain event... A strong, dynamic system will start this period, marking a flip to temperature values that will be much closer to normal...though possibly still remaining above seasonal norms. A dip to near 500 hPa of a 1.5 PV intrusion will help deepen a surface low that will track just to our west and north Friday Night. This deepening surface low will advance a cold front to our doorsteps at 12Z Saturday morning. This will maintain a mild airmass over our region Friday Night with temperatures falling only into the upper 50s across WNY...though farther from the surface low...low/mid 50s east of Lake Ontario. The 00Z suite of deterministic models of the GFS, Canadian and ECMWF as well as their ensembles (00Z GEFS, 12Z ECMWF) have come into agreement with the cold front passing across our region midday Saturday. This front will end our stretch of 70s, though a few spots east of Lake Ontario and across the Finger Lakes could still see 70 by late morning before the cold front passes through. As for rainfall, warm air advection will bring light showers across the region Friday Night...increasing in intensity across WNY later in the night. Convective activity starting the day Saturday across WNY will expand to areas east of Lake Ontario through the morning. Though not much, MUCAPE values of several hundred J/KG building ahead of the cold front could bring some rumbles of thunder...first during the day Friday and then again ahead and along the cold front later Friday Night and into Saturday. The combination of the deepening surface low, instability, and strong LLJ of 45 to 50 knots at 4K feet could bring some gusty winds with the convective precipitation late Friday Night and into Saturday. At this point it is to early to tell where the core of the stronger low level winds will lie...but will be something to watch for as we draw closer to the weekend. If the strength of LLJ increases, wind gusts will become more of a concern for Saturday morning/midday. Synoptic winds will increase later Saturday and especially Sunday as a deeper cold airmass with increased mixing heights reaches our region. Shower chances will continue into the early part of next week under moist cyclonic flow aloft...with activity enhanced east of the Lakes as cooler air at 850 hPa (+1 to +3C) passes over the warm lakes. Lake bands will persist the longest off Lake Ontario where deeper ambient moisture resides, with the lake plume of rain oscillating through at least Monday, with perhaps a few sprinkles or light showers Monday Night. Surface high pressure will pass by to our south, with warming aloft ending the lake bands. Clearing Monday Night with light winds will allow for a seasonably cool night with temperatures dropping down into the upper 30s inland to upper 40s near the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 12 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Was in West Seneca at the time. Had power back on within 3 days here. Longgg nights pulling buckets out of the sump pump pit the night that all melted. Was in Cheektowaga near pine ridge, our first home, 7 days w/out power. Left our house at 9pm as I was already sensing a big problem on the horizon, packed up the Saturn, and my wife and at the time our 1st child (3 total now) went to her mom and dads in Hamburg. It took us 1 hour 45 minutes to get there and 90% of the drive was in total darkness. We arrived just before 11pm to total darkness in Hamburg a d all I remember were the insane amount of blue-green flashes seemingly in every direction as all the power grids were failing. We left our first rottie in the house snd went back the next day. I took my father in-laws truck and it was spectacular to see all the down trees, power lines and stuck vehicles…in fact when we finally arrived at the Harlem bridge over the rail yard it was like driving through a navigation course going around all the stuck vehicles. When arrived at our neighborhood I couldn’t get down my street, had to go the street behind ours and drive over a fallen telephone pole…we were only able to get as far as the corner near my house and had to walk the rest of the way to get our dog. Never forget it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 hours ago, KPITSnow said: Is it just me or are fall LES events more and more rare recently? I think its the opposite. It might just be better record keeping but there have been two 7' plus events in the past 20 years, along with numerous crippling events. The only two storms that anyone talks about before the 93 Nor'easter is 85 and 77. I've never heard any stories from parents/grandparents about the time they got 7' in three days or when thousands were stranded on the thruway or downtown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Erie actually went up a degree today and now at 67. 7 degrees above average for the date. Surface Temps across the lake are still 68-70. Just need that early cold outbreak in the 10-14 day range! Even with just “cooler temps” this weekend should see some good LER setup, especially off Lake Ontario. Liking Sunday for some spoot action! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 We'll see how this looks in a week or so lol It would have"potential" for first flakes in the higher elevations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We'll see how this looks in a week or so lol It would have"potential" for first flakes in the higher elevations.. Wow that’s legit low 40’s for lower elevations and 30’s for the hills…of course it has the same chance at happening as TugHill does becoming a good luck charm and changing all our winter fortunes but at least it’s amusing… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We'll see how this looks in a week or so lol It would have"potential" for first flakes in the higher elevations.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wow that’s legit low 40’s for lower elevations and 30’s for the hills…of course it has the same chance at happening as TugHill does becoming a good luck charm and changing all our winter fortunes but at least it’s amusing… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 GFS beyond 3-4 days is pure trash, add 15 degrees and some sun to that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 Some decent signs on the GEFS of the midwest/canadian ridge breaking down. Decent chance we get a somewhat normal November around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 EPS has a pretty strong ridge for next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 I really think Syracuse still has some issues with their thermometer. Very often, the "max temp" is the result of some random jump of a couple degrees in an hour and then it drops back down. It almost seems like it's exposed to a certain angle of the sun at certain times that make random spikes in temp there. Today is perfect example: 73, 73, 73....75...73... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Ironically I had the same 2° jump at around the same time (3pm)..lol I've obviously been a little suspect of readings during the warmest part of the day, running around+2 compared to the PULASKI COOP .. These are 5 minute intervals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 GFS still holding onto the Lake Effect idea for Oct 25 time frame… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 TWC has its winter temp outlook out (for fun purposes only) but I think the lot of us would be surprised which way they’re leaning… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 Buf at +11.6 Average temp of 66.8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: TWC has its winter temp outlook out (for fun purposes only) but I think the lot of us would be surprised which way they’re leaning… Looks like they went with a typical Nina. Surprised they went with warm November, I would be surprised by that. I definitely agree with warmer Feb and especially March. Its a good look for us. https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-10-13-late-fall-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like they went with a typical Nina. Surprised they went with warm November, I would be surprised by that. I definitely agree with warmer Feb and especially March. Its a good look for us. https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-10-13-late-fall-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast I agree with this. November December look cold, January transition month and February March early spring…if we can get 2 or 3 really good LES events and one good synoptic event I’d consider this a success 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I agree with this. November December look cold, January transition month and February March early spring…if we can get 2 or 3 really good LES events and one good synoptic event I’d consider this a success I'd always prefer a front loaded vs back loaded winter. Late Nov to early January is best winter 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'd always prefer a front loaded vs back loaded winter. Late Nov to early January is best winter And I know it’s the GFS so handle with care, but it is really showing a lot of lows that would give the metro area some excellent LES events if it were 5 or so weeks from now. Look at the 6z from this morning, the Saturday 10/23 looks incredible for a huge event, and if comes to fruition will be a rain event. Crazy we’re getting here this fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: And I know it’s the GFS so handle with care, but it is really showing a lot of lows that would give the metro area some excellent LES events if it were 5 or so weeks from now. Look at the 6z from this morning, the Saturday 10/23 looks incredible for a huge event, and if comes to fruition will be a rain event. Crazy we’re getting here this fast That's why any cold before mid November is useless for lower elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 Lake Erie is 67 degrees today. The previous record for this date was 65, beat it by 2 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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