Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[BuffaloWeather]

39 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Look at those overnight low temp departures from average compared to the high temps

I think Oct. finishes with the highest departure of the year if the forecast is right.

[tim123]

November looks to start winter. 

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Ridge looks to last the next 100 days at least

Fixed it…

[BuffaloWeather]

Summer in October 

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Summer in October 

I’ll give this one more week…after that I’m organizing a mob to oust TugHill…

[BuffaloWeather]

I told you guys I would be floating in the pool until November this year. 

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’ll give this one more week…after that I’m organizing a mob to oust TugHill…

I’d say exile the poor fellow to Canada since it’s not too far away, but then we’d lose our cold source.

If we sent him to the NAO region though we’d at least have consistent blocking there. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d say exile the poor fellow to Canada since it’s not too far away, but then we’d lose our cold source.

If we sent him to the NAO region though we’d at least have consistent blocking there. 

Southern tip of Greenland? I think there is some green space there. 

[wolfie09]

You guys need to find your own bad luck charm and leave ours alone..

[BuffaloWeather]

30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’ll give this one more week…after that I’m organizing a mob to oust TugHill…

7 straight days of overnight lows above 60 in almost the middle of October is pretty incredible. Average lows are in the 40s right now. 

[BuffaloWeather]

We likely see Lake Erie break some all time warmth records for October with that forecast. 

[TugHillMatt]

LOL...all empty threats...plus nobody's coming in my home. it's "infected." Good defensive/security system...

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

You guys need to find your own bad luck charm and leave ours alone..

I’m just messing with him. All in good fun I hope. I think I spent two years as the bad luck charm when I moved back to SNE. Hopefully we all cash in this winter.

This is about the time of year I transition from dreaming of hurricane eyewalls to dreaming of below zero temperatures and blizzard warnings… 

[TugHillMatt]

Oh, and that forecast is disgusting. Our climate is rapidly changing. Months and months of above normal, with the above easily getting 10 to 20 degrees "above normal' for days and days...and then never transitioning to the 'other side of the pendulum to cooler weather..." "Cool downs" are usually a degree or two colder than normal...not 10 to 20 degrees and certainly not for months....

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m just messing with him. All in good fun I hope. I think I spent two years as the bad luck charm when I moved back to SNE. Hopefully we all cash in this winter.

This is about the time of year I transition from dreaming of hurricane eyewalls to dreaming of below zero temperatures and blizzard warnings… 

Oh, we know.  I'm sure wolfie was joking back.

If the Lake effect snow this winter sets up on SW winds like it has the past several winters, pick me up on your way to Watertown...

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh, we know.  I'm sure wolfie was joking back.

If the Lake effect snow this winter sets up on SW winds like it has the past several winters, pick me up on your way to Watertown...

Watertown has been real good to me.

Love the area.

I’d like to get down to the Buffalo area this winter to see what Lake Erie can do.  

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Any thoughts on what happened with Antartica guys? Or do we think the northern and southern hemispheres are isolated enough to have it not really matter. 

[BuffaloWeather]

45 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Any thoughts on what happened with Antartica guys? Or do we think the northern and southern hemispheres are isolated enough to have it not really matter. 

I think the consensus is that you're still going to see anomalous seasons in an otherwise consistent warming trend. Feb 2015 was our coldest all time month but doesn't change the fact that 2015 warmed quite a bit year over year in the general trend line. Winter is only 3 months. You can still get 3 really cold months in a row in any given year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

https://www.livescience.com/south-pole-coldest-winter-record

Thanks to the frigid temperatures, sea ice levels around Antarctica were at their fifth highest extent on record in August, the Post reported. But the ice melted rapidly over the next several weeks, and by the end of September sea ice had thinned to some of the lowest levels seen at that time of year.

Antarctica's frigid winter temperatures are in contrast to trends in the rest of the world, which overall recorded its fourth hottest summer. In fact, July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded, Live Science previously reported. 

"One cold winter is interesting but doesn't change the long-term trend, which is warming," Eric Steig, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, told the Post. In the long term, Antarctica, like the rest of the world, is warming and rapidly losing sea ice

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Be neat to see one of these.  This was over Southern Ontario this morning.  Fair weather cold air funnel hung over the area for almost an hour slowly rotating as it drifted.  Wish someone would have time lapsed it.

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Any thoughts on what happened with Antartica guys? Or do we think the northern and southern hemispheres are isolated enough to have it not really matter. 

Its interesting, they went from an above average amount of ice to below normal in less than a month, so certainly just kind of seems like an anomalous blip.  They also lost ice at very rapid clip during a time when historically the ice should have still been slowly increasing.  Things are certainly out of whack relative to the 30 year datum.  

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think the consensus is that you're still going to see anomalous seasons in an otherwise consistent warming trend. Feb 2015 was our coldest all time month but doesn't change the fact that 2015 warmed quite a bit year over year in the general trend line. Winter is only 3 months. You can still get 3 really cold months in a row in any given year. 

How did that level of cold work out for LES? I imagine snowfall might have been a bit muted especially in the snow belts that rely on Erie? 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think the consensus is that you're still going to see anomalous seasons in an otherwise consistent warming trend. Feb 2015 was our coldest all time month but doesn't change the fact that 2015 warmed quite a bit year over year in the general trend line. Winter is only 3 months. You can still get 3 really cold months in a row in any given year. 

My complete wild ass guess is that having more energy in the system (warming) will make extremes at both ends of the spectrum more frequent as volatility is increased, i.e. February 2015 or Antarctica this year.

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Its interesting, they went from an above average amount of ice to below normal in less than a month, so certainly just kind of seems like an anomalous blip.  They also lost ice at very rapid clip during a time when historically the ice should have still been slowly increasing.  Things are certainly out of whack relative to the 30 year datum.  

I wonder if the ice loss blips are due to storms shaking things up.

[wolfie09]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How did that level of cold work out for LES? I imagine snowfall might have been a bit muted especially in the snow belts that rely on Erie? 

The coldest calendar month on record was established this February 2015 as a constant siege of very cold air masses brought day after day of well below normal temperatures. Nearly every day this month was below normal across Western and North Central New York State, and about a third of the days this month were 20F or more degrees below normal. This February also was one of the snowiest February’s on record for Western and North Central New York.

The month began with a significant snowstorm that dropped a foot to a foot and a half of snow across Western and Central New York. Through the first week temperatures did manage to climb to around the freezing mark twice, on both the 4th and the 7th. Thereafter a strong ridge of high pressure aloft was anchored over the western third of North American, while a deep trough of low pressure was carved over the eastern two thirds of North America. This persistent flow in the jet stream allowed for arctic air to flow southward across Canada and towards the Great Lakes region. This cold air mass would then linger through the end of the month over eastern Canada and the eastern United States. The extremely cold air set several daily low temperature records through the last three weeks of the month. The final two and a half weeks of the month averaged 15F to 20F degrees below normal across Western and North Central New York State. Within the northwest flow this month several clipper systems passed through bringing light snows to our region, along with air temperatures moderating slightly from their frigid values. Behind each clipper low a fresh arctic air mass replenished the cold air across the Great Lakes region sending air temperatures to well below normal values yet again.

The final three lake effect snow events of the year occurred in February. These events were minor east of Lake Erie as the lake was just about completely frozen over, while across the eastern end of Lake Ontario the three lake effect snow events carried an average magnitude of around a foot of snow each.  A good portion of Lake Ontario was covered in ice by the end of February, with nearly all of the central and eastern sections of the lake ice covered.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

My complete wild ass guess is that having more energy in the system (warming) will make extremes at both ends of the spectrum more frequent as volatility is increased, i.e. February 2015 or Antarctica this year.

I would think that as well.  Sure overall we are warming, but we are seeing more extreme weather blips as we climb.  Record heat along Pacific coast this summer.  The flooding impacts from the two tropical storms in NYC area.  Wildfires.  Cold outbreak into the South this past winter.  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

It's doing it again... Been spot checking the temps around KBUF in the mornings and haven't seen any anomalies in a couple weeks now, until this morning.  Not a huge difference but still, KBUF sensor is running 2.5 - 3.0 degrees above all the other surrounding sites at 6am.  Spot checking a few of the hourly's it looks like around 3-4am something happened.  KBUF was inline at the 3am update only about 1 degree higher, but then at 4am update KBUF temp jumped 3 degrees while all the surrounding stations only showed a half degree or less increase in temp.  Really strange for sure.        

[DeltaT13]

3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

It's doing it again... Been spot checking the temps around KBUF in the mornings and haven't seen any anomalies in a couple weeks now, until this morning.  Not a huge difference but still, KBUF sensor is running 2.5 - 3.0 degrees above all the other surrounding sites at 6am.  Spot checking a few of the hourly's it looks like around 3-4am something happened.  KBUF was inline at the 3am update only about 1 degree higher, but then at 4am update KBUF temp jumped 3 degrees while all the surrounding stations only showed a half degree or less increase in temp.  Really strange for sure.        

I still wonder if this is a mixing thing.  Perhaps personnel are arriving on site around that time and zooming around in vehicles and such.  Or maybe an early FedEx plane lands and stirs things up a bit.  

A few smudge pots around an orchard is enough to modify the temp over a fairly large area, seems like its possible that the air around the airport might be susceptible to mechanical mixing factors.  It certainly wasnt too sunny yesterday so UHI effects shouldn't have been too strong.

[wolfie09]

It was only a matter of time lol

[TugHillMatt]

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It was only a matter of time lol

You mean rain on the coastal plain and then missed by WSW flow?