Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[wolfie09]

Hijacked this from another board.. New European seasonal, DJF.. Take it FWIW..

 

[wolfie09]

Here was the previous run..

Link

[BGM Blizzard]

55 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

@BGM Blizzard, those last two pictures make me excited for winter to arrive. I hope we get to see plenty of scenes like that in a couple months!

O hell yeah. And that storm was the lone bright spot in what was otherwise a pretty shitty winter from start to finish. Without that storm or if we only got Iike 25% of that storm total, the winter would have been one to forget. Even though we lost 80% of that snowpack the following week, we still maintained a snowpack all the way thru March because of that storm and it meant the difference between an A- and C+ in my book for an overall winter grade.

So just goes to show, even in the midst of what was a crappy winter on a macro level, we can still break single storm records for snowfall if the pattern aligns itself in any given week.

[BuffaloWeather]

31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Here was the previous run..

Link

I think my call is going to be +1-1.5 for temps and +5-10% snowfall from average for Upstate. 

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

@BGM Blizzard, those last two pictures make me excited for winter to arrive. I hope we get to see plenty of scenes like that in a couple months!

You will.  Up on the Tug...

[BuffaloWeather]

That storm made no sense it was insane 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

1-2.5" of rain across the area. 

[cny rider]

2.8 inches in my gauge since it started raining Sunday afternoon.

[BuffaloWeather]

OHWeather outlook is out

 

[Thinksnow18]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

1-2.5" of rain across the area. 

This has been a very wet last 6 weeks with over 8” at KBUF in that timeframe. This makes me breathe a bit easier as the more soil moisture we can get now will stay as it gets cooler and eventually colder jelling the cold air to not modify as much coming up. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

You will.  Up on the Tug...

Oh, shut up.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OHWeather outlook is out

 

So what I gather from the first paragraph is that, of course, anything could make it warmer than forecast. A polar bear will blow a hot fart out of its butt and that will pop a ridge over us...

Hopefully we can get the 2nd paragraph to work out.  

[Ericjcrash]

17 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Sure was. Never seen anything like it and probably never will again around here. The other day I was looking back at some of my pictures during and after that storm and still can't get over how fast and furious it piled up. 

Same here. It really was ridiculous and 3x+ more than forecast here.

[Flying MXZ]

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

2.8 inches in my gauge since it started raining Sunday afternoon.

Wow.  Dumped out about 1.7" yesterday evening here.

[cny rider]

1 minute ago, Flying MXZ said:

Wow.  Dumped out about 1.7" yesterday evening here.

It poured again here last night and we have been locked in misery mist/drizzle all day today.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

From Ohio. His forecast is the best on the forum IMO

My thought is that there's blocking early, probably peaking in December, and then it backs off a bit through January and into February with the cold shifting northwest and more of a gradient pattern setting up as the SE ridge flexes. So I think it is cold early in the GL/OV and then is milder mid-winter. Snow may depend on where you are...up in Wisconsin it may be most active when the blocking relaxes, whereas farther south gets more of their snow when it's colder with more blocking. 

I think by November we'll have a decent idea on if the early blocking idea will pan out or not. There is an element of "could go either way" still this early. 

[TugHillMatt]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From Ohio. His forecast is the best on the forum IMO

My thought is that there's blocking early, probably peaking in December, and then it backs off a bit through January and into February with the cold shifting northwest and more of a gradient pattern setting up as the SE ridge flexes. So I think it is cold early in the GL/OV and then is milder mid-winter. Snow may depend on where you are...up in Wisconsin it may be most active when the blocking relaxes, whereas farther south gets more of their snow when it's colder with more blocking. 

I think by November we'll have a decent idea on if the early blocking idea will pan out or not. There is an element of "could go either way" still this early. 

I always like Raleighwx's forecasts too...I'm not sure if he still frequents the board?

[wolfie09]

 

[wolfie09]

This was the correlation I was hoping to see lol Granted it's based off 5 years..

 

[BuffaloWeather]

2011-2012 was a Nina, always a chance at a real bad winter in a Nina pattern. The Euro seasonal doesn't look good. 

[wolfie09]

Well I guess this is why Montague was down yesterday..

Beginning October 4th, the KTYX WSR-88D radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Burlington, VT and located at Montague, NY will be down for approximately two weeks for an important upgrade. Technicians will refurbish and replace the pedestal, one of the most critical components of the radar, which is necessary for antenna rotation and positioning to capture data in all directions. The components are extremely heavy and will require the radome to be removed by crane and replaced when the work is completed.

 

The radar and pedestal were designed to last 25 years, and this radar has exceeded its life-span. This activity is necessary to keep the radar functioning for another 20 years or more.

The pedestal refurbishment is the third major project of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program, a series of upgrades that will keep our nation’s radars viable into the 2030s. NOAA’s National Weather Service, the United States Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration are investing $135 million in the eight year program. The first project was the installation of the new signal processor and the second project was the refurbishment of the transmitter. The fourth project will be the refurbishment of the equipment shelters. The Service Life Extension Program will be complete in 2023.

During the downtime, adjacent radars include:

• KCXX – Burlington, VT
• KENX – Albany, NY
• KBUF – Buffalo, NY
• KBGM – Binghamton, NY.

[wolfie09]

We won't be needing much radar anyway, at least for CNY the next week or so..(potential Wed/Thursday of next week)..

[BGM Blizzard]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OHWeather outlook is out

 

He's good. He does the long range forecasting for Weather Works in NJ.

[BGM Blizzard]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

2011-2012 was a Nina, always a chance at a real bad winter in a Nina pattern. The Euro seasonal doesn't look good. 

Only good thing about that winter was the consistent 70s and 80s by March. Cold wet springs are the worst.

[BGM Blizzard]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That storm made no sense it was insane 

 

Like a long fetch band off LO ramming the Tug. Only thing that would have made it better would have been a lightning strike or 2.

[BuffaloWeather]

Not bad for October

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

Columbus Day

Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

[BuffaloWeather]

Average high low for tomorrow is, running about 15-20 above normal.

High 62.7

Low: 45.8

[BuffaloWeather]

Ridge looks to last the next 10 days at least

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Look at those overnight low temp departures from average compared to the high temps

[wolfie09]

The South Pole just had its coldest winter on record. 

Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius). That's the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average, according to The Washington Post. 

The previous record for the coldest winter was minus 77 F (minus 60.6 C) in 1976, Stefano Di Battista, a journalist wrote on Twitter. The Post learned of this record through Battista, but then confirmed the information with Richard Cullather, a research scientist at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office.

Related: Coldest places on Earth

The frigid winter is likely caused by a strong polar vortex in the stratosphere, the second layer of the planet's atmosphere from Earth's surface, according to the Post. "Basically, the winds in the polar stratosphere have been stronger than normal, which is associated with shifting the jet stream toward the pole," Amy Butler, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA, told the Post. "This keeps the cold air locked up over much of Antarctica."

What's more, a strong polar vortex also leads to more ozone depletion in the stratosphere, which strengthens the polar vortex even more, according to the Post. Ozone is a gas made up of three oxygen molecules that is found high in the atmosphere. Ozone protects Earth's surface from harmful ultraviolet rays and depleting it can expand the ozone hole over Antarctica.

While Antarctica logged the coldest known average winter temperature, satellites have detected individual temperatures that are far lower; as low as minus 144 F (minus 98 C), according to the Post.

Thanks to the frigid temperatures, sea ice levels around Antarctica were at their fifth highest extent on record in August, the Post reported. But  the ice melted rapidly over the next several weeks, and by the end of September sea ice had thinned to some of the lowest levels seen at that time of year. Scientists told the Post that the climate in Antarctica is prone to rapid change and that a frigid winter doesn't mitigate the seriousness of climate change.