BuffaloWeather Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think that Rochester and Buffalo temp difference is kinda large Well Watertown is +2.3 and they are closer to Lake Ontario and gets the W/SW breeze. Ontario is cooler than Erie by quite a bit due to its depth. Lake Erie keeping Buffalo warmer than both Wat/Roc makes a ton of sense to me. Lake Erie is currently in mid to upper 70s. Not to mention SYR is +3.2 (same as BUF) on the month as well. I think the thermometer is correct at KBUF. @SouthBuffaloSteve did you hear anything back from Buf NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Was mentioned that Hurricane Sam is actually keeping the Northeast cooler than projected. interesting stuff. Where? I'd like to understand this perspective more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Well on the GFS we have a closed low, troughiness which pulls Sam NWard..Not sure if SAM is actually responsible for the cooler than normal temps, but probably has something to do with it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Ggem not exactly the same but similar in concept.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 32 minutes ago, vortmax said: Where? I'd like to understand this perspective more. I read it from a reputable source, can’t seem to find but basically what wolfie showed throughiness in northeast was supposed to be a ridge all week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 In other words, a normal weekend and start of next week lol To close out the end of the work week and start of the weekend, model consensus has an upper level low to wobble across the Canadian Maritimes. As the weekend progresses, a few waves of energy will pivot around the cyclonic gyre before pulling northeast early in the next upcoming work week. However, the model guidance packages continue to hold differences in timing and placement of the waves of energy. Overall, this translates to mainly dry weather Friday, before slight chances for showers enter the forecast for each day of the weekend due to the upper level energy pivoting across the area. Otherwise, cool temperatures will continue throughout the end of the work week, weekend and start of the next week. Highs Friday through Monday will range in the 60s, with lows dropping into the 40s Friday night and upper 40s to low 50s throughout the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Actually overnight lows are forecasted a little above average with daytime highs right around average..(start of October) Oct starts dropping each day by about 1/2°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I read it from a reputable source, can’t seem to find but basically what wolfie showed throughiness in northeast was supposed to be a ridge all week. Was popping in to say I hope I can get a good LES chase this season and y’all are talking tropical! Originally it looked like we’d see some SE Canada ridging and a cutoff low south of New England that could force a close approach by Sam, but the guidance quickly shifted to bring the trough over NE. That does two things: first, it allows for a much cooler NW/northerly flow that’s persistent as the trough slowly meanders over or just east of the region and 2) keeps Sam out to sea or pulls it into Newfoundland. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Well Watertown is +2.3 and they are closer to Lake Ontario and gets the W/SW breeze. Ontario is cooler than Erie by quite a bit due to its depth. Lake Erie keeping Buffalo warmer than both Wat/Roc makes a ton of sense to me. Lake Erie is currently in mid to upper 70s. Not to mention SYR is +3.2 (same as BUF) on the month as well. I think the thermometer is correct at KBUF. @SouthBuffaloSteve did you hear anything back from Buf NWS? Kinda? This was the reply I received. How do you make it out? Like yes, the overnight temps are warmer because of UHI effects... but it is what it is? It's just always the warm spot... always... temps were all taken between 854-906 tonight. 1.3 degrees warmer then next warmest station... Next 10 closest stations were within 2.5 degrees of each other... KBUF is again an outlier... Can question the accuracy of the PWS but its hard to when they are so consistently close in range with their numbers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Interesting... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1015 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Wednesday night into Thursday, H85 temps lower to a chilly 0-1c in wake of the front into Wednesday night. Weak cyclonic low-level flow and additional synoptic low-level moisture along with sufficient over-water instability (delta t/s over 15c) with north-northeast flow across Lake Ontario resulted in increasing pops some for lake effect on Wednesday night Genesee Valley to Finger Lakes. At the least, will see a lot of lake effect clouds south and southeast of Lake Ontario. So, despite the colder temps aloft, think min temps on Wednesday night will not be as low as they could be due to some clouds and fresh northerly winds behind the front. Min temps in the 40s will be common, but interior valleys of Southern Tier and higher terrain east of Lake Ontario could briefly dip into the upper 30s. Thursday will be cooler with highs ranging from the 50s to around 60. Temps on the lake plains may sneak into the lower 60s briefly on Thursday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 All models had coast to coast ridge during this time period. Changed quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Kinda? This was the reply I received. How do you make it out? Like yes, the overnight temps are warmer because of UHI effects... but it is what it is? It's just always the warm spot... always... temps were all taken between 854-906 tonight. 1.3 degrees warmer then next warmest station... Next 10 closest stations were within 2.5 degrees of each other... KBUF is again an outlier... Can question the accuracy of the PWS but its hard to when they are so consistently close in range with their numbers. Thanks, looks they re-calibrated just in case. In the end its hard to compare recreational stations vs professionally managed stations that are constantly monitored by meteorologists. You take KBUFs reading over the rest and it matches up well against other stations besides ROC. But in fall we all know Lake Erie keeps us way warmer than nearly every other major reporting station around here. ROC doesn't have a 75 degree lake 10 miles away that has a consistent W/SW breeze. Overnight lows are much warmer around here in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 SAM looks to just miss Bermuda.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Sizzlercuse continues its reputation (at least to me...lol) as the high for today was already six degrees above forecasted at midnight (lol). Entered the day at 69 degrees because of the bloody Southwesterly wind that I loathe and seems to occur EVERY day here. Most of the rest of Upstate made it into the 50s with the next warmest being in the mid 60s. Our temperature climate here is almost equal to that of Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Yeah sizzlecuse like buffalo takes a long time to cool down lol We all had high overnight lows as it took time for the cooler air to filter in..At midnight it was still 61/62 here and we hit our low around 8am (52)°, Dewpoints briefly dropped into the 40s.. Currently 55° and sunny.. Cold front came through late last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: SAM looks to just miss Bermuda.. Surfer's delight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 Sunny and mid 60s is perfect fall weather. Will definitely get the leafs changing quick. We have very little color change so far here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 We are getting closer and closer..... One day at a time.. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sunny and mid 60s is perfect fall weather. Will definitely get the leafs changing quick. We have very little color change so far here. Just noticed some colors starting to pop here. In just a few weeks, we'll be talking flurries and graupel showers! (Hopefully!) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 We have a mix here with some trees quite a bit more advanced than others.. Not even close to llast year in Copenhagen, almost exactly 1 year ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Best thing about this time of year is how quick it cools off lol We were at 60 around 6pm and have already dropped into the lower 50s..Winds are out of the North which means we will probably go a little below guidance for tonight... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: We are getting closer and closer..... One day at a time.. I'll be up there next weekend hiking. You usually see snow above 4k in mid October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Thanks, looks they re-calibrated just in case. In the end its hard to compare recreational stations vs professionally managed stations that are constantly monitored by meteorologists. You take KBUFs reading over the rest and it matches up well against other stations besides ROC. But in fall we all know Lake Erie keeps us way warmer than nearly every other major reporting station around here. ROC doesn't have a 75 degree lake 10 miles away that has a consistent W/SW breeze. Overnight lows are much warmer around here in the fall. I don't know... it just never looks right... Here is the 10 pm live reporting (KBUF updated 4 minutes prior to this grab at 958, all stations reported temps at 954pm ). It's just not right that KBUF is running almost 5 degrees above every other location surrounding it. You can question the recreational PWS data but look at how consistent the sites are across central Erie County. The KBUF number is just such an outlier it should be tossed from the data set, not made the official #. Even caught one of the local Spectrum News mets questioning the temp at KBUF on air tonight. We have believers! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Ok…tonight’s the night!!! Clear skies, perfect radiation all cooling and at 10:15 it’s 55 at KBUF and 46 at UB North, a mesonet site, not an off brand thermometer. The winds are out of the NW at 3 so almost calm. IF the temps are radically different at KBUF tonight than around it’s nearby sites, then we have a clearer picture of the outside variables at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Ok…tonight’s the night!!! Clear skies, perfect radiation all cooling and at 10:15 it’s 55 at KBUF and 46 at UB North, a mesonet site, not an off brand thermometer. The winds are out of the NW at 3 so almost calm. IF the temps are radically different at KBUF tonight than around it’s nearby sites, then we have a clearer picture of the outside variables at work. Great minds think alike! Posted that $#!& at the SAME TIME! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Great minds think alike! Posted that $#!& at the SAME TIME! lol I’m firmly in the belief that the night time temps are most affected by this with the exception of very hot days…last years 97 and 98 ring a bell? This could change the daily average to almost being normal instead of the positive departure we have witnessed. This may not seem it but this is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 29, 2021 Author Share Posted September 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I don't know... it just never looks right... Here is the 10 pm live reporting (KBUF updated 4 minutes prior to this grab at 958, all stations reported temps at 954pm ). It's just not right that KBUF is running almost 5 degrees above every other location surrounding it. You can question the recreational PWS data but look at how consistent the sites are across central Erie County. The KBUF number is just such an outlier it should be tossed from the data set, not made the official #. Even caught one of the local Spectrum News mets questioning the temp at KBUF on air tonight. We have believers! what time were these all recorded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 29, 2021 Author Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m firmly in the belief that the night time temps are most affected by this with the exception of very hot days…last years 97 and 98 ring a bell? This could change the daily average to almost being normal instead of the positive departure we have witnessed. This may not seem it but this is important. last years was confirmed to have an issue but KBUF replaced the broken part. This years data is fine. SYR is equal to KBUF with temps this year and they have no lake keeping them warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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