Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[TugHillMatt]

I "love" how they say "somewhat" cooler air at the end of the week. lol.... Can it just cool down already?!?!?!

I see, per usual, Sizzlecuse made it several degrees warmer than forecasted....and the Dewpoint was 70 for hours. My gosh, let it end already.

[wolfie09]

Look at the difference between the GFS and euro lol Thursday afternoon..

As NWS alluded to, GFS is quicker with the closed low/front..

 

[TugHillMatt]

Yup...and they're humping the Euro.

[wolfie09]

Could be some decent rains mid-latter part of the week as well..

[wolfie09]

Equal chances for A/B in the med-LR, as it stands now..

[CNY_WX]

2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Look at the difference between the GFS and euro lol Thursday afternoon..

As NWS alluded to, GFS is quicker with the closed low/front..

 

Can this be attributed to a difference with the timing of the cold front?  Euro does show colder temperatures just off to the west. What does hour 132 show?

[lakeeffectkid383]

First time in the 40s here that I can remember since Spring. 48 F. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

3 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

First time in the 40s here that I can remember since Spring. 48 F. 

Felt awesome out this morning! Love when it’s cool and crisp like that.  52 temp with a 50 dp when I hit the door at 7am.  

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

First time in the 40s here that I can remember since Spring. 48 F. 

Yea I was driving home from hockey last night and it was freezing, actually turned my heat on.

[BuffaloWeather]

Should be a few cool days later this week but warmth rebuilds. Ocean to ocean ridge for October?

[tim123]

I forsee winter in November. Been hearing alot about early winter. 

[tim123]

October may be very active for tropics. That ridge in october spells trouble.

[wolfie09]

 

Only two other Atlantic hurricane seasons have had 16 named storms by Sept. 19 since the satellite era began in 1966. Those were the 2005 and 2020 seasons, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

 

Meanwhile, tropical depression Seventeen formed Sunday. Forecasters said it was over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, about 330 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

The tropical depression had maximum sustained winds around 35 mph. The system was expected to become a tropical storm later Sunday or on Monday, however there were no immediate threats to land, forecasters said.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

I forsee winter in November. Been hearing alot about early winter. 

#WinterIsComing

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Overall, guidance continues the slower trend with respect to the
eastward progression of large storm system that will impact our
region during the second half of this week. GFS remains the fastest,
while the still preferred solution advertised by the Canadian
NH/ECMWF remains on the slower side of the envelope. Large upper low
will lumber northward from the Ohio Valley to the Central Lakes
Thursday into Thursday night, before getting `kicked` well north
toward James Bay on Friday owed to the next strong trough digging
toward the upper Great Lakes. At the surface a strong cold front
will approach then occlude as it slowly crosses the lower Great
Lakes sometime later Thursday into Friday, while its` associated
surface low mirrors the track of its` parent upper low. Strong LL
jet, favorable UL jet placement and strong vorticity advection will
provide ample forcing...and when combined anomalous deep moisture
advection, will likely produce a period of moderate to heavy rain
along and ahead of the boundary as it crosses the region during this
timeframe.

Cold front should finally get shoved completely east of our area by
Friday night as the next powerful shortwave digs southeast across
the upper Great Lakes, also accompanied by a strong surface cold
front. Drier and cooler air will settle in toward the end of the
work week in the wake of the first boundary, so depending on the
exact timing, there will likely be a relatively short window of dry
weather between the two systems from sometime Friday into the first
part of the weekend. This will only be followed up by the next
powerful system (mentioned above) to impact our region next weekend
as well. There will again be plenty of forcing in play, however much
less in the way of available moisture will really cut down on
rainfall amounts and coverage. A reinforcing shot of cooler more
seasonable air will also filter across the lower Great Lakes in the
wake of this system.

[TugHillMatt]

It's so ridiculous that our "reinforcing shots of cool air" bring us back to "seasonable" these days.

[Thinksnow18]

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

My theory has been that heat islands play a much larger role in the data acquisition and/or warming than is being credited. The problem is that no one will buy an anti urban sprawl campaign when the constituents largely live in urban areas.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

I messaged Kbuf and they said nothing is wrong with thermometer. It’s 59 at Kbuf right now and 61 in Hamburg. 

[BuffaloWeather]

So far this month

BUF: +2.6

ROC: -.1

WAT: +1.2

SYR: +2.3

BING: +1.1

If anything I think ROCS thermometer is off, no one is negative in NYS besides them. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

KBUF is 63 at the 9am update.  Looks pretty much in line to me…

[wolfie09]

Nam through Thursday..Like a conveyor belt of moisture out ahead of the LP/Front. As usual exact placement YTD..

[wolfie09]

HWO

A complex storm system will develop over the Upper Ohio valley and
mid western states on Tuesday. This slow moving system will cross our
region Wednesday into Thursday. At the least, we can expect a soaking
rainfall of an inch or more. There will be an elevated risk for
rainfall that could exceed two inches.

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam through Thursday..Like a conveyor belt of moisture out ahead of the LP/Front. As usual exact placement YTD..

Love the hole of despair between BUF and ROC… getting us prepared for the winter time let down!

[wolfie09]

Discussion

..A Soaking Rain on the Far Horizon...

The various deterministic guidance packages continue to struggle
with the timing of a complex storm evolution that will take place
over the Upper Ohio Valley/Mid western states during this period.
The GFS has been...and continues to be...the most aggressive and is
likely much too fast with the resulting significant weather for our
forecast area. As mentioned in previous discussions...will discount
this solution in favor of a blend of the ECMWF and NHCan. These
models have a more climatologically consistent `view` of how the
overall system will play out. Sharp troughs that lead to vertically
stacked systems with tight west to east hgt gradients typically
exhibit a slow eastward progression with a rather sharp edge to the
main swath of rain. This should be no different. Will thus skew
ensemble solutions towards the mean of the ECMWF and NHCan
deterministic packages.

The last of several strong H5 impulses will dig into a sharp
longwave trough over the Mississippi valley Tuesday night. This will
begin the process of forming a closed off low that will plague our
region through the mid week period. Meanwhile...an inverted trough
will extend northwards across Lake Erie. Much of Tuesday night
should be rainfree...but there will be some showers around...mainly
west of the Finger Lakes. Temps bumped up a bit to account for deep
southerly flow and slower progression of upstream system.

The closed low will significantly deepen over the Upper Ohio Valley/
Mid Western states Wednesday and Wednesday night...while a strong
ridge will remain anchored some 500 miles east of Long Island. This
will establish a strong southerly flow that will inhibit an eastward
push of rain from the vertically stacked system. Showers will
gradually give way to steadier rain...mainly over the far western
counties where the rain could be moderately heavy at times. Have
raised pops to near 100 for these areas.

A strong sfc occlusion will slowly push to the east across our
forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. A 50-75 mile band of
moderately heavy rain will precede the feature...and this will be
followed by a dry slot that will be followed by a pronounced dry
slot that may be completely shut down the residual showers.

The passage of this slow moving system should generate at LEAST a
soaking rain for our region...and there could be the risk for
problematic rains if the ECMWF/NH Can prove to be in line. Rainfall
amounts from Wednesday through Thursday (when the rain could be
steadiest/heaviest) will very likely exceed an inch and could
eclipse 2 inches

[BuffaloWeather]

Get your lawns mowed today/tomorrow

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

My theory has been that heat islands play a much larger role in the data acquisition and/or warming than is being credited. The problem is that no one will buy an anti urban sprawl campaign when the constituents largely live in urban areas.

I could go with the heat island theory IF it was snack downtown but it’s on the border of Williamsville off Youngs…I can’t believe the runway would make that much if a difference 

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I messaged Kbuf and they said nothing is wrong with thermometer. It’s 59 at Kbuf right now and 61 in Hamburg. 

Then was everyone else so much colder? Every site around it at 7am was 6 to 7 degrees colder.

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

KBUF is 63 at the 9am update.  Looks pretty much in line to me…

9am wasn’t the issue…7am was