Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[Buckeyes_Suck]

8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Thank you all for sharing your thoughts on this coming winter. 

What I really want to see is a huge snowstorm. I have never seen more than 12" from a single storm and I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to watch 2-3 feet fall in the span of a couple days.

You can see 12” fall around here in 3 hours. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Hell yes. Bring it on.

I'll miss the frequent thunderstorms but I'll be damned if the snow belt isn't a good, if not better substitute.

Where were you before? You'll almost certainly get more frequent snowstorms in Oswego as well. Maybe not as big but definitely more. Maybe we will even get our long lost friend the Alberta clipper this year. Many wonder if they will ever revisit us again.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I recently moved from Middle Tennessee, specifically a place about 30 miles SW of Nashville. I've lived in Tennessee my whole life so this will be quite the change.

Oh wow. You're in for a treat. Are you going to school in Oswego or permanent move? You can get 10 years of snowfall totals in Nashville in 1 event in Oswego. Judging by your signature from 2011-2021 you got 32.9" of snow there. You can get that pretty easily in one event in Oswego lol

Just last year they got this event

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=H

[tim123]

5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I recently moved from Middle Tennessee, specifically a place about 30 miles SW of Nashville. I've lived in Tennessee my whole life so this will be quite the change.

Welcome to forum. You picked the best area other than the tug hill to be for snow in entire country thats populated

[Revracer800]

6 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Yes, I'm at SUNY studying met.

Historically Nashville averages about 6" of snow per year but, as you can see, it's been dismal since the 21st century. I can think of maybe 5 or 6 winters where we were above average.

Welcome to Oswego, i live 15 minutes from there in a little town called Hannibal. Once that Lake Effect kicks in look out lol. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Quite the cool down coming by late next week. Go from 80s this week and early next week to struggling to get out of the 50s by the end of next week. Will definitely feel much like fall.

 

 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

16 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Quite the cool down coming by late next week. Go from 80s this week and early next week to struggling to get out of the 50s by the end of next week. Will definitely feel much like fall.

 

 

I hope next weeks game is chilly so I cant make some chili for tailgating. 

[BuffaloWeather]

26 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I hope next weeks game is chilly so I cant make some chili for tailgating. 

You going to game?

[BuffaloWeather]

44 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Quite the cool down coming by late next week. Go from 80s this week and early next week to struggling to get out of the 50s by the end of next week. Will definitely feel much like fall.

 

 

fake news

[WNash]

11 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

I recently moved from Middle Tennessee, specifically a place about 30 miles SW of Nashville. I've lived in Tennessee my whole life so this will be quite the change.

Welcome to the non-downstate part of New York!

I moved from Nashville to Buffalo in 2012, and it was a big change in sensible weather. But I lived in snowy places both as a kid and as an adult, and I am old enough to remember some pretty good snowfalls in the Nashville area in the 70s and 80s (not to mention the 93 ice storm).

I don’t regret the move for a minute. Not only is the weather much more suited to my preferences, but I have found western NYers to be the most genuine and friendly people I’ve ever met. And Buffalo’s revival is real - when I first moved here, people were visibly shocked that I had left Nashville for Buffalo, but now they don’t think a thing about it.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You going to game?

Yes sir, this is our first year with seasons. Last week was great until the blocked punt.

[Thinksnow18]

10 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Yes, I'm at SUNY studying met.

Historically Nashville averages about 6" of snow per year but, as you can see, it's been dismal since the 21st century. I can think of maybe 5 or 6 winters where we were above average.

There’s a guy with a handle in here TugHill Matt…stay away and save yourself…he’s a black cat under a ladder playing the ouija board all while watching the shining all in one…

[wolfie09]

Quote

Meanwhile as the upper level ridge slides east, the trough pattern
to the west over the Continental Divide will amplify and dig across
the Central Plains and Upper Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Then, said trough`s axis will cross the region Thursday. As
such, a Colorado low will develop and cross northeast across the
Northern Plains into Canada. Additionally, the surface low will drag
its surface boundary across the Midwest Tuesday night before
crossing the region Wednesday. As the front edges near the region
Tuesday night and then crosses the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night, chances for rain showers will re-enter the forecast, passing
from west to east.

The frontal passage will finish exiting the eastern portions of the
forecast area Thursday. Also, due to the amplification of the trough
aloft, cool continental air will be advected in across the region
behind the frontal passage with long range model guidance packages
suggesting temperatures at 850mb to drop into the low single digits
Celsius. With the cooler air aloft and wind shifting to
northwesterly behind the exiting front, chances for lake enhanced
showers will continue Thursday afternoon.

With the passage of the front and the infiltration of cooler air
into the region temperatures will drop back down to normal. Highs
Wednesday will warm into the low to mid 70s, while Thursday will be
cooler with highs ranging in the 60s.

 

[wolfie09]

However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

Can we lock it in? 

[Syrmax]

23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

I know covid has affected everyone in different ways but these folks need to put the Bong down once in a while.

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There’s a guy with a handle in here TugHill Matt…stay away and save yourself…he’s a black cat under a ladder playing the ouija board all while watching the shining all in one…

We used to have solid snowfall here locally but not since @TugHillMattarrived, after single handedly destroying the snowmobiling industry during his time on the Tug.  Now we just Sizzle Sizzle.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

Ninas definitely favor cooler Oct-Dec. Last year did not behave like a Nina due to the PAC flow. 

Oct: +1.0

Nov: +5.8

Dec: +3.4

[BuffaloWeather]

In looking back at last year, our first Trace of snow was on Oct 30th and our first hard freeze was Oct 31st. First measurable snow was Nov. 2nd for Buffalo. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Sizzle sizzle…

too hot for mid September…

 

[mississaugasnow]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In looking back at last year, our first Trace of snow was on Oct 30th and our first hard freeze was Oct 31st. First measurable snow was Nov. 2nd for Buffalo. 

The last few falls have had early season snow (at least for GTA) followed by weeks of 40s and 50s. I was hoping that the first big push of colder air was going to wait until October but looks like its coming next week. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Sizzle sizzle…

too hot for mid September…

 

This is disgusting. I’m tired of sweating lol. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The pool days continue, sitting at 76 degrees right now.

[BuffaloWeather]

47 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Today was the hottest day of the forecast period, with temps getting into the lower 80s..Sunday looks pleasant (average"ish") before we warm ahead of the next trough(mid 70s).. Looks like some relief finally comes mid week.. How long it last TBD lol

With respect to temperatures...these will peak in the mid 70s to
lower 80s on Tuesday...with the warmest readings found across the
lake plains of far western New York given the deep southerly
downslope flow that will be in place out ahead of the front. This
will be in stark contrast to Thursday...when 850 mb readings dipping
into the lower single digits will likely only support highs ranging
from the upper 50s across the highest terrain to the low-mid 60s
elsewhere. Some modest recovery in temps should then follow for
Friday as heights/temps aloft begin to rise...though readings will
still likely remain a little below average.

Wednesday

Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday

A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

Not too long

[BuffaloWeather]

KBUF hit 83 today. +2.1 on the month

[TugHillMatt]

11 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There’s a guy with a handle in here TugHill Matt…stay away and save yourself…he’s a black cat under a ladder playing the ouija board all while watching the shining all in one…

LOL! So descriptive....yet you still forgot that I've also been breaking mirrors....

9 hours ago, Syrmax said:

We used to have solid snowfall here locally but not since @TugHillMattarrived, after single handedly destroying the snowmobiling industry during his time on the Tug.  Now we just Sizzle Sizzle.

Maybe you can snowmobile on your pool when it's frozen over this winter...

[wolfie09]

We had a little convection overnight, picked up a quick 0.34" of liquid..

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Good agreement dry weather will prevail through Monday night all
areas as omega block aloft holds sfc ridge over Northeast. H85 temps
in mid teens and full sunshine results in aiming highs into the low-
mid 80s on Monday, which is similar to continuity and above even
warmest guidance. Ridge aloft starts to break down on Tuesday and
could see some showers into far western NY on edge of warm conveyor
belt moisture of system crossing the western Great Lakes.

Showers should become better organized on Tuesday night, but again
most focused over western NY. Will be back to mild nights with gusty
southerly flow ahead of front. Readings on the lake plains will stay
in the mid 60s. Forecast soundings Monday night through Tuesday
Night point to wind gusts toward 30 mph at times, especially near
shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unfortunately, the decent agreement seen in the short term does not
carry over into the long term. Main issue is how the models are
handling splitting longwave trough that crosses the central CONUS.

Primary trough which has a lot of jet energy within it, both ahead
of, and in wake of the trough, eventually looks to cut off somewhere
from Ohio valley to lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Still a lot
of uncertainty with the upper low and associated sfc low/cold
front.

GFS remains much quicker than ECMWF and Canadian-NH with overall
front and widespread precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. Current
grids did not stray much from continuity, but would need to be
adjusted toward wetter idea on Thursday versus Wednesday if the
ECMWF idea ends up verifying. Hunch is ECMWF is probably the better
idea, though such a far western solution with low center on Thursday
is probably too much. Looking back, that solution has only been
shown by ECMWF at 00z/12z today whereas before it looked a lot
like current GFS solutions do. Time will tell. Moderate to heavy
rain still a good bet as the front moves though. Thunder chances
look minimal at this point though.

Eventually, drier and somewhat cooler weather will prevail by Friday
with another system working through by next weekend. Highs late this
week will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in wake of the cold
front.

[wolfie09]