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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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Frontal boundary does look to remain south of the area rest of
today, but it will start to work back north as a warm front
beginning late this afternoon. Convection over western Great Lakes
just getting going, but is forecast to expand toward lower Great
Lakes late today into tonight. Latest guidance would suggest maybe
an arrival to convection as early as very late this afternoon.

Stronger convection not out of question again tonight WNY to Finger
Lakes along the slowly moving northward warm front. Ample shear over
40 kts and strong instability with 0-1km MUCAPES over 1000J/kg along
and south of warm front from central Great Lakes to lower Great
Lakes support marginal to slight risk of severe as highlighted by
SPC. Damaging winds and large hail would be main hazards along and
north of the warm front.

day1otlk_1300 (1).gif

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5 hours ago, vortmax said:

I would have expected a lot more damage based on how that radar looked, but the storms did suddenly weaken as they were coming onshore. Interesting.

I can’t be certain but I believe that happens quite a bit with storms over the lake…and oddly there was not a stiff SW wind to shred apart the storms either.

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Yesterday we only received 0.12" of liquid as it was more of a "stalled/slow" moving boundary, it came through here to early lol

Wednesday looks to be more of your typical slow moving front with precipitation streaming from the SW.. Much better set up locally.. Global consensus (as of now) is 1"-2" with the euro being the wettest.. 

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-09-13T143716.530.png

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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Anybody have any quick data on how many below average Septembers the Northeast in general has seen this century? It's gotta be low...what a torch, relative to "normal," it seems to have become.

If you include this month 7 straight above normal Septembers. 12/22 have been above average or 54.5% since 2000

Feb 2015 stands out so much, what a crazy month that was.

temp.png

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37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

north town special tonight. Looks to be some training on the that line as well.

Turned more into a city and immediate southern burbs event. Constant thunder and lightning here in Derby. More than last night. Still no rain, it’s all 5-10 miles to my north. I’d imagine your getting fringed with the storms right now BuffaloWeather. 

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