wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 We had 0.66" overnight, on and off showers this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Euro still showing some snow even for the some blower elevations.. Forecast has the potential for snow to mix in from Wednesday night through Friday, granted pops at 30%.. NWS mentions light accumulation for the higher elevations.. While these will initially be in the form of just plain rain...continued cooling of the column should eventually result in the precip mixing with and/or changing to snow outright across the higher terrain... which could in turn result in our first minor accumulations of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 https://www.wgrz.com/amp/article/weather/strong-solar-flare-to-lead-to-potential-viewing-of-northern-lights-this-weekend-western-new-york-weather-halloween-weekend/71-b706af6e-f886-4d7e-b62a-f4da6744f868 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Swing and a miss as of now.. 00z model guidance has trended weaker and further offshore with a potential coastal low off the East Coast on Friday. Therefore, trended PoPs down a bit, however trough and lake influences support low chances Thursday night and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 I’m In Skaneateles for the weekend and couldn’t believe when I just checked my home weather stations and saw that we picked up another 2.18 since yesterday. That puts me to 8.49” on the month. Two months out of the last 4 with over 8 inches of rain. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Swing and a miss as of now.. 00z model guidance has trended weaker and further offshore with a potential coastal low off the East Coast on Friday. Therefore, trended PoPs down a bit, however trough and lake influences support low chances Thursday night and Friday. Not a bad place this far out. Euro on it's own though everything else is super squashed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2021 Author Share Posted October 30, 2021 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off&fbclid=IwAR2zPuiK_iwDgCgGv41nIPnVV00HaP3NE2u-5NKbZ7gFCSoZfuSIzQMjlfM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 GFS with on and off lake showers most of the week.. Not much going on synoptic wise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 A year ago in Delaware County. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 hours ago, cny rider said: We really lucked out here, with the rain going to our west. We are still saturated from earlier in the week. It wouldn't have taken much to have us flooding again. Nice to miss one for once. 0.15” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Worst COOP ever lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Nothing to see here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 58 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Nothing to see here What’s a 1000 mile difference amongst friends? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Looks like some clearing tonight. Wondering if the Aurora will still be active? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Euro is similar to the Ggem and has been inland for several runs but it doesn't matter because it's rain lol Look at 540 thickness line, tied to the low up north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 It's funny that the disco says all rain for lower elevations but the P&C has potential for snow showers to mix in almost every day lol Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Snow showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Rain showers likely before 10pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 10pm and 5am, then snow showers likely after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's funny that the disco says all rain for lower elevations but the P&C has potential for snow showers to mix in almost every day lol Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Snow showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Rain showers likely before 10pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 10pm and 5am, then snow showers likely after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Yeah there will definitely be accumulating snow in the higher elevations this upcoming week. Maybe even LES advs for highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 Top of Mardi Gras Holiday valley looks like a good spot for next week. Bet they get a few inches. 2300' at the top. For Lake Ontario I think Carols place looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 The 3KM really pins down highest elevations south of Buffalo, just the hilltops some 6" totals up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 This type of pattern would be pretty decent a month from now. First 2 weeks of November are usually a waste for lower elevations if the cold air gets here too early. Lets hope last 2 weeks we can get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Quite a dreary day, only around 0.15" overnight but dealing with some mist/drizzle at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Ggem back to a GFS like solution with HP suppressing the next system.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 My gosh, these extreme ridges! Waaaaaaaaaaay up to northern Canada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Well looks like the euro caved to the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 It's also has the best shot of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning..It all comes down to overcoming the BL which torches due to the lake.. Warmer the lake=harder it is to snow close to the lake.. Obviously we do better the 2nd half of the month, we'll see how that goes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise from 10K feet Monday night to about 15K feet Tuesday, then rise further to over 20K feet Tuesday night into Wednesday as the core of coldest air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a good chance of thunder at times in the stronger bands off both lakes. Lake Erie... Monday evening the lake response will still be limited by sparse synoptic scale moisture. Later Monday night a frontal wave will pass through the Ohio Valley and bring more synoptic scale moisture into play. At the same time a surface trough will cross Lake Erie, bringing an uptick in low level convergence. This will allow a band of lake effect to expand and intensify across the Southern Tier overnight, with the eastern end extending all the way across the Finger Lakes by late Monday night. Sufficient moisture and another surface trough will support a continuation of lake effect Tuesday and Tuesday night east of Lake Erie, mainly across the western Southern Tier. The eastern end will extend across the Finger Lakes at times with deep inland penetration. Finally by Wednesday, boundary layer flow will veer more WNW, with lighter upslope/lake effect persisting over the Southern Tier Wednesday through Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be all rain initially Monday evening. Later Monday night through Tuesday temperatures aloft and in the boundary layer will cool sufficiently to allow wet snow to mix in across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie, with a few of the highest hills possibly going to all wet snow at times. There is a better chance of a change to all wet snow Tuesday night and Wednesday when the column cools further. The heaviest lake effect precip will fall Monday night through Tuesday when temperatures are still very marginal for accumulation, with lighter precipitation amounts Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the marginal temperatures, accumulation potential looks limited, with minor accumulations on the higher hills. Lake Ontario... Dry air will limit the lake response through much of Monday night, with a relatively weak band over the Tug Hill moving north towards Watertown by late Monday night. Boundary layer moisture and instability improve late Monday night through Tuesday morning, so expect a more organized band of lake effect to center over central and northern Jefferson County as boundary layer flow becomes southwesterly. This band will tend to break up for awhile Tuesday afternoon and evening as drier air and shear move over eastern Lake Ontario. Tuesday night through Wednesday morning a stronger trough will bring a big increase in synoptic scale moisture and convergence to Lake Ontario. Expect a band of heavy lake effect to develop near Watertown initially, then move south across the Tug Hill later Tuesday night, reaching Oswego County by Wednesday morning. Boundary layer flow then becomes WNW Wednesday, with a broader area of lake effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario from the Niagara Frontier to Central NY by afternoon. Lake effect will continue east and southeast of Lake Ontario into Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be strongly influenced by terrain east of Lake Ontario through the event. The lower elevations close to Lake Ontario will stay mainly rain, with some graupel or wet flakes mixing in at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday when the coldest air aloft crosses overhead. The best accumulation potential for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks will come Tuesday night when the strong band moves south across the area, with several inches of wet snow possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Rainy in Amsterdam tonight but not too cold, maybe 50... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Our exciting start to November is looking less and less exciting. It was always a long shot. Might be better to have a good pattern materialize later anyhow. Happy Halloween 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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