TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Oh, Sizzlecuse...how you kill me. The highest we got here in the NW burbs was upper 50s. But the Sizzle was at 60, then jumped to 64 to 65 for less than an hour....and then down to 61. These dirty high temps... Meanwhile, Watertown is in the 40s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 First snowflakes in this time range. I'm pretty sure I guess Nov 4th like 2 months ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 On 9/15/2021 at 8:03 PM, Luke_Mages said: Are we playing price is right rules? if so I’m going for first freeze 11/4 First measurable snowfall 11/11 Going big with 134” snowfall with a bills super bowl win On 9/15/2021 at 8:53 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Since we haven't had 3 below normal snowfall years in a row since the 1980s, I have to go with the law of averages and say above normal snowfall and around normal temps. First Snowfall: Nov. 7th First Freeze: Oct. 29th On 9/15/2021 at 10:06 PM, Thinksnow18 said: First snowfall: November 13th First Freeze: October 21st Snowfall: 99” Temps: +.5 for Dec-Feb Let's see who wins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 I hope Luke wins! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: First snowflakes in this time range. I'm pretty sure I guess Nov 4th like 2 months ago. Nostradamus over here. When will I lose my virginity? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 NWS mentions an inverted trough tomorrow.. Potential exist for 2"-3"+ wherever this sets up..(according to guidance) On Tuesday, parent upper trough will dive toward Mid Atlantic coast while sfc low continues to deepen significantly off Long Island. Sharp convergence along inverted trough to northwest of the low with resurgence of deeper moisture and upper divergence due to jet lifting ahead of the upper trough will result in rain becoming widespread again. Heaviest rain amounts of over three-quarters of an inch will occur from western Finger Lakes eastward, but even areas over far western NY will see at least a couple tenths in what will be a damp, dreary day. Much cooler day over the Southern Tier as mid to upper 60s from today will be replaced by upper 40s to around 50. Low to mid 50s elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Nostradamus over here. When will I lose my virginity? Unfortunately for you, the same day TugHiMatt sees an above average snowfall season. you poor poor bastard. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Another overnight top of the hour temp check and no surprise here... KBUF is running 2-3 degrees warmer than all the surrounding PWS locations yet again. Should be interesting once we get our first "marginal temp" mix event. KBUF will be showing 37 with snow, maybe they'll check out the issue then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Another overnight top of the hour temp check and no surprise here... KBUF is running 2-3 degrees warmer than all the surrounding PWS locations yet again. Should be interesting once we get our first "marginal temp" mix event. KBUF will be showing 37 with snow, maybe they'll check out the issue then... I bet it’s always been like this and we just never noticed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Taking the mid range with a grain of salt on the details specific to storm tracks... the big take away is a cold shot is coming mid next week, question is how cold? Might be a little bit early but we just had that pretty decent veterans day snow storm maybe 3-4 years ago? Think we saw 10-12" of general snow across the area? We are still a good 2-3 days away from getting a clearer picture on possible storm tracks. Would love for some early season snow, but kinda hope we get away with a chilly lake effect rain event followed by a season ending hard freeze. Not sure how everyone else is looking but the trees are freaking me out down on the lake plain area. I'm old enough to remember when every year by Halloween the leaves were 75% down for the season. It was a thing every year we wold get the big pumpkin and ghost lawn and leaf bags and i would spend the whole month trying to fill as many as i could to line the yard in front of our street. This was late 80s early 90s in West Seneca area, had a pretty big lot with tons of huge silver maples so we always had so many leaves in the fall. I vividly remember the pumpkin bags though as the one Halloween while we were walking home after getting candy we hear the sirens going and fire truck comes flying up the road, can see the fire a few blocks up, looks like our house, we go running up and ends up being a group of kids tried pulling them into a pile in the street and lit them on fire and went running into the woods. Nothing happened just some burnt up crap in the road. Sorry getting off topic but just how I remember the trees always being pretty much done dropping by time November hit. Flash forward to now and I finished packing up the yard on Sunday. Still have some garden plants like my hosta a bright healthy green. My strawberry pots are blooming again and I actually have another round of berries trying to grow. I swear the one maple tree the leaves are getting bigger. I would have noticed this thing before, it covers my whole hand! And look at how bright green that is for the end of October. Notice a few oak trees showing some color and dropping, but most of the maples are either bright green or if they are dropping its just truning brown and drying up. If we do end up getting snowfall in that Nov2-Nov5 time frame could be some issues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I bet it’s always been like this and we just never noticed. And only because I had OCD one morning…you know that’s a terrific point BW…I wonder if when the mice yo the airport was made to now the temperature has slowly increased at that area has become further developed but it wasn’t enough to see a great increase. Now that there’s comparable data it looks much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Taking the mid range with a grain of salt on the details specific to storm tracks... the big take away is a cold shot is coming mid next week, question is how cold? Might be a little bit early but we just had that pretty decent veterans day snow storm maybe 3-4 years ago? Think we saw 10-12" of general snow across the area? Think we are still a good 2-3 days away from getting a clearer picture on possible storm tracks. Would love for some early season snow, but kinda hope we get away with a chilly lake effect rain event followed by a season ending hard freeze. Not sure how everyone else is looking but the trees are freaking me out down on the lake plain area. I'm old enough to remember when every year by Halloween the leaves were 75% down for the season. It was a thing every year we wold get the big pumpkin and ghost lawn and leaf bags and i would spend the whole month trying to fill as many as i could to line the yard in front of our street. This was late 80s early 90s in West Seneca area, had a pretty big lot with tons of huge silver maples so we always had so many leaves in the fall. I vividly remember the pumpkin bags though as the one Halloween while we were walking home after getting candy we hear the sirens going and fire truck comes flying up the road, can see the fire a few blocks up, looks like our house, we go running up and ends up being a group of kids tried pulling them into a pile in the street and lit them on fire and went running into the woods. Nothing happened just some burnt up crap in the road. Sorry getting off topic but just how I remember the trees always being pretty much done dropping by time November hit. Flash forward to now and I finished packing up the yard on Sunday. Still have some garden plants like my hosta a bright healthy green. My strawberry pots are blooming again and I actually have another round of berries trying to grow. I swear the one maple tree the leaves are getting bigger. I would have noticed this thing before, it covers my whole hand! And look at how bright green that is for the end of October. Notice a few oak trees showing some color and dropping, but most of the maples are either bright green or is they are dropping its just truning brown and drying up. If we do end up getting snowfall in that Nov2-Nov5 time frame could be some issues. We did have an early season storm a week after Halloween. I remember it poured that Halloween night and I was thinking to myself if it was only 10 degrees colder it would’ve been a pretty big snowfall…then about a week later it was…I’m with you a mangled flake or two, even a slushy coating would be great by me. Maybe it’s my superstitious nature but I feel that when we have a big out of season. Snowfall (October to mid November) the following winter season Is a bit of a bust. I don’t have the data to back that up but the 3 years that early significant snows occurred we finished the season below normal in the snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: We did have an early season storm a week after Halloween. I remember it poured that Halloween night and I was thinking to myself if it was only 10 degrees colder it would’ve been a pretty big snowfall…then about a week later it was…I’m with you a mangled flake or two, even a slushy coating would be great by me. Maybe it’s my superstitious nature but I feel that when we have a big out of season. Snowfall (October to mid November) the following winter season Is a bit of a bust. I don’t have the data to back that up but the 3 years that early significant snows occurred we finished the season below normal in the snowfall department. Euro weeklies say we start winter in early Nov right through mid December. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 Maybe we will get a 2000-2001 November? I think people remember the Nov 2000 storm, but forget the one just before it. 3 lake effect events for Metro Buffalo in 1 week. Almost 46" that month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: If that 3rd panel comes to fruition I will cancel the intervention I had set up for tug hill 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Maybe we will get a 2000-2001 November? I think people remember the Nov 2000 storm, but forget the one just before it. 3 lake effect events for Metro Buffalo in 1 week. Almost 46" that month. What amazed me to this day when I look back on that time frame was how much it WNY was buried under 24+” of snow…that is hard to do in January and February let alone the 3rd week of November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Rain has returned.. Coming down at a solid clip . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: What amazed me to this day when I look back on that time frame was how much it WNY was buried under 24+” of snow…that is hard to do in January and February let alone the 3rd week of November Besides Nov 2014 that was the most snow I've seen on the ground in November. I lived right by the airport for that time period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Besides Nov 2014 that was the most snow I've seen on the ground in November. I lived right by the airport for that time period. 2000-2001 was statistically our best winter ever. Check out the snow depth climo segments. Ranks as the season that saw the most ever days with at least 1" of snow on the ground at 114 days! That would be the same as having snow on the ground from Nov 1st - Feb 22nd... Every day during that period! Yes there were thaws in there so not sure how continuous it was but still 114 days is 1/3rd of the entire calendar year that we had snow on the ground. That is impressive, it even beat out both the winters of 76-77 and 77-78 which were brutally cold and snowy. But then things get weird as days with 6"+ on the ground was only average at only 48 days. Then looking at 12"+ days there was only 6? Seems like the bigger Nov snows melted down pretty quickly but still held a more minimal snow pack for a longer period of time. Graph directly below, (1"+ of snow on the ground) I would classify a "traditional" winter in the 80-90 days range. Would you guys agree? More or Less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Wait a minute… I’ve seen this movie before! And… it cuts wide west! Gotta admit this is fun watching these runs for enjoyment purposes. Eventually one of them is going to a stick. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Man I wish this was a snowband. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1.20" here split between yesterday and overnight, currently 48° and light rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Anyone notice the incredibly heavy band of rain just to our west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Yeah looks pretty much stationary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Plenty of precipitation to get through although this may weaken before getting here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 I moved from Little Falls to Brewerton in November, 1995. That is still the snowiest November on record in Syracuse. I closed on my house on November 9. Closing was scheduled for 10 AM. As I drove up the Thruway I encountered heavy snow around Chittenango. I had a Suzuki Sidekick at the time so I did have 4 wheel drive but going was still extremely slow. I was panicking that I was going to be late for the closing. I made it there about 10:30 and was the first one there! Ended up with about 8 inches for that event Heavy lake effect events continued into December I think the pattern flipped in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Plenty of precipitation to get through although this may weaken before getting here.. I had 0.68” as of 8:15 AM. Channel 9’s timecast has the rain continuing until midnight . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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