rochesterdave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Scott Hetsko, reiterating a point I’ve been harping on for a while: He claims we’ve now had 3 winters of less than 100” of snow and that it hasn’t happened since the early 80’s. Due! It’s all cyclical. Not really based on science but rather the law of averages. Of course a smart person could post the snowfall from the 50’s and really put a hurt on my enthusiasm. Either way, it looks like we get a taste in 2 weeks or so. So glad to be back and a heartfelt thanks to those of you who sympathized with my dad’s dementia diagnosis. I love this group! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 The issue with this cool down is we are forecast clouds and showers nearly every day..So while some of the highs are below average, lows are not and keep rising lol Sunday night went from mid 30s to low 40s.. Today was kind of a cheap high of 59° at midnight but most of the day will feature mid-upper 40s.. Currently 49° with on and off weak lake showers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 The next system continues to trend north, at least on the GFS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Only a 20% chance of showers today but it's been raining all morning lol We didn't see much from the CF and only have 0.39" for the event..Temp continues to slowly drop, sitting at 46.2°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Starting to look a bit more like October lol Storm system on the 25/26th and another a few days later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: The next system continues to trend north, at least on the GFS.. Dejavu. All of last winter… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 A month later this would of been hell of a snowstorm on the backside.. Either way the weather looks to turn active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Wouldn’t be surprised to see the high peaks get smacked! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 Quite the outbreak yesterday with no SPC risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 Rain totals from yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Wouldn’t be surprised to see the high peaks get smacked! It's scary up there in winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 Really need some dry weather here to get my fence done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Not looking good in the near term BW, obviously things can change.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 During the balance of this period...our attention will turn back to the synoptic scale as a sharpening baroclinic zone initially sets up across the Ohio Valley Sunday...then pushes north into the Southern/ Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday in response to a strong shortwave/attendant area of low pressure rippling northeastward along the resultant tight thermal gradient. Strong warm advective lift/isentropic ascent along the baroclinic zone will combine with plentiful moisture and favorable lower and upper level jet dynamics (including an impressive coupled upper level jet structure and strongly diffluent flow aloft) to bring a widespread soaking rainfall to our region...with this beginning as early as late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday evening across the Southern Tier...then overspreading the rest of the area through the balance of the period. Given all this...have continued the midnight shift`s trend of raising PoPs... with these now bumped up into the categorical range for both Sunday night and Monday. At this early juncture...it appears that we could be looking at a general inch to inch and a half of rain across much of our area between Sunday night and Monday...with somewhat lower amounts of a half inch to an inch across the North Country. With respect to temperatures...these will generally run near to a little below average through the period. Expect lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Sunday night...highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Sunday...and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night. On Monday a tighter thermal gradient will likely be in place with our region bisected by a slow moving surface frontal boundary...with a rain-cooled northeasterly low level flow on the north side of the front keeping highs confined to the mid 40s to lower 50s along and north of the Thruway...while interior portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier should see readings reach the 55-60 range south of the boundary. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Two Pacific systems will impact our region this period. The first, with a surface low just to our southwest Monday Night will continue the rain across our region...with low clouds and fog shrouding the higher hilltops. Moist cyclonic flow aloft will maintain clouds while rain becomes lighter through the night as the warm conveyor belt and its lift slides towards eastern New York. Under cold air advection Tuesday rain showers will continue over the region and likely not until Tuesday Night when drier air follows the departing upper level low will our region start to dry from west to east. While a spot shower or two is possible early Wednesday across eastern zones, a mid level ridge will pass over our region...with this ridge separating the two Pacific systems. Dry weather is expected under this ridge Wednesday and Wednesday Night. The next Pacific low, this deeper both aloft and at the surface will bring rain showers back into our region Thursday. As this upper level low slowly passes across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday, periods of rain showers are likely for our region. Cloud cover will likely keep our minimum temperatures from falling below normal, while daytime highs will remain near to slightly above normal this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 GFS still advertising some fantasy goodies for the higher elevations, going to take a lot to overcome that toasty lake Imby..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's scary up there in winter weather. I've been in the Adirondacks during snowstorms, and I've been on the Tug during storms. The Dacks don't really scare me. But I have felt a real visceral fear during heavy lake effect on the tug, especially crossing open areas with the wind howling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 My wife and sister are heading to Wright Peak on Monday. Seems the forecast changed a lot since yesterday. Anyone think they can salvage a good hike before the rain moves in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 59 minutes ago, cny rider said: I've been in the Adirondacks during snowstorms, and I've been on the Tug during storms. The Dacks don't really scare me. But I have felt a real visceral fear during heavy lake effect on the tug, especially crossing open areas with the wind howling. Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 35 degrees at 9:30. Could be looking at the first freezing temperature of the season overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 35 degrees at 9:30. Could be looking at the first freezing temperature of the season overnight. First time of the season in the 30s. 37 here. I think the clouds moving in overnight may hamper any chance of a freeze. Although, temps did fall rapidly this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Overnight low temperatures between 33 to 38 degrees will result in areas of frost formation. * WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are forecast to quickly fall into the 30s later this evening. Temperatures may hold steady or slowly rise toward daybreak as clouds move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Overnight low temperatures between 33 to 38 degrees will result in areas of frost formation. * WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are forecast to quickly fall into the 30s later this evening. Temperatures may hold steady or slowly rise toward daybreak as clouds move in. I see it's near 50 degrees along the Lake Ontario shoreline, especially in the Oswego/Fair Haven area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Yeah cloud cover and NW flow off the warm lake..Still low -mid 40s east of Ontario with clouds.. Actually not much of a wind tonight, just mostly cloudy.. Tonight 850MB temps will continue to drop to the -2C to -4C range. Despite the cold airmass, the lake response will be muted by dry air and subsidence in the mid levels. Boundary layer flow will become very weak tonight, allowing land breeze circulations to become dominant. This will force bands of lake effect rain showers to primarily reside over the lakes with very little inland penetration. A few showers may clip the Lake Erie shore southwest of Buffalo at times tonight. A few more showers may clip the Lake Ontario shore from the Monroe County over to Oswego County late tonight and Saturday morning. Otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly dry tonight. Low temperatures will drop to upper 30s/near 40 across the lake plains and mid 30s across the Southern Tier and North Country. Increasing cloud cover across western New York and eventually central New York should keep frost potential to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: GFS still advertising some fantasy goodies for the higher elevations, going to take a lot to overcome that toasty lake Imby..lol Euro Hi-res also shows at the very end of its run what appears to be an eastern cold dump. Could be looking at our first flakes first week of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 I just don't get it... screenshot from 1003pm. KBUF update on site at 1002pm and all other stations reported between 955 and 1002pm, so data is live time within 7 minutes of any other station. Yet again once the sun goes down the KBUF site is staying 1.5-3.5 degrees warmers that its closest surrounding stations. Somethings just not right about it. Even taking into account the micro climate with that "ridge" the airport sits on 266 and 190 would be control stations as they are both roughly 1-1.25 miles from the KBUF ASOS site on similar terrain. Only difference is these temps are in a residential setting vs an open field in the middle of an airport. Even these two sites will run several degrees colder at some point of the night than KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 The magic 8 ball says watch Nov 2 - Nov 5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: The magic 8 ball says watch Nov 2 - Nov 5. You need a lot to go right in early November to get LES in the lower elevations but definitely some signals there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Struggled to lose another degree in the last 2 hours, currently at 34. There’s a few clouds overhead but Jupiter still shines brightly in the southwestern sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 Our first snowflakes coming during this week I think. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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