SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wow, that is crazy. I never knew that. First Nov 14 event would have fit perfectly into that pocket. Not exactly to scale but you get the idea. That small lift in elevation from downtown to the airport could aid in the stalling process and stronger storm dynamics, snowfall rates seen on the extreme northern edge of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 KBUF sits on a hill, like literally when you zoom in. Roughly 30 meters, just shy of a 100 foot increase in elevation from the area just north and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Man we're approaching the daily high at 10 pm lol Need less than a degree.. Lake really a toaster bath huh? Even 5 miles inland, winds are pretty strong this evening..Dps up to 56°, almost tropical out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Interesting interactive topographic mapping I found. Never realized there was a small elevated "plateau" that comes down the 90 corridor and runs right into downtown. So. If you drive down transit heading north towards Lockport, that’s where the ridge at eastern hills is. The Sheridan dr underpass is the ridge to “transit Valley”. This COULD be one of the reasons why my area and north to UB are colder than KBUF…however it doesn’t make sense to the east towards Lancaster. That area was almost 9 degrees colder this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Man we're approaching the daily high at 10 pm lol Need less than a degree.. Lake really a toaster bath huh? Even 5 miles inland, winds are pretty strong this evening..Dps up to 56°, almost tropical out lol Temp dropped into the 50s around sunset, then the furnace SW wind kicked in and the temp immediately responded and bounced up several degrees. lol Note: Bville is several degrees cooler than the airport right now and in the upper 50s. Still very mild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Man we're approaching the daily high at 10 pm lol Need less than a degree.. Lake really a toaster bath huh? Even 5 miles inland, winds are pretty strong this evening..Dps up to 56°, almost tropical out lol 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Temp dropped into the 50s around sunset, then the furnace SW wind kicked in and the temp immediately responded and bounced up several degrees. lol Forecasted high for tomorrow is 70. I'm still going with my 74 to 75 degree call. We'll hit 70 by 11:30 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Forecasted high for tomorrow is 70. I'm still going with my 74 to 75 degree call. We'll hit 70 by 11:30 am. Hit 66 today at KBUF, the low was 42. Normal low for today is 43. Tomorrow is the day I officially close the pool, just need to put cover on everything else is done. Oct 20th is the latest I've done it so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Temp dropped into the 50s around sunset, then the furnace SW wind kicked in and the temp immediately responded and bounced up several degrees. lol Note: Bville is several degrees cooler than the airport right now and in the upper 50s. Still very mild. Yeah it's 63° here lol With a West wind.. Forecast low is 53°, doubt we see that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 55 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So. If you drive down transit heading north towards Lockport, that’s where the ridge at eastern hills is. The Sheridan dr underpass is the ridge to “transit Valley”. This COULD be one of the reasons why my area and north to UB are colder than KBUF…however it doesn’t make sense to the east towards Lancaster. That area was almost 9 degrees colder this am. Lancaster has very little urban development compared to around the Airport. Lots of "country" around that area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hit 66 today at KBUF, the low was 42. Normal low for today is 43. Tomorrow is the day I officially close the pool, just need to put cover on everything else is done. Oct 20th is the latest I've done it so far. What's the pool temp? I think you should wait until November and take a hairy legs floating in the pool shot...this is the year to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: What's the pool temp? I think you should wait until November and take a hairy legs floating in the pool shot...this is the year to do it. Its in the 60s lol its freezing. I still jumped in today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah it's 63° here lol With a West wind.. Forecast low is 53°, doubt we see that.. Wow. Crazy! 60s there...50s on the Tug...and 40s in Oneida county away from the lake influence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hit 66 today at KBUF, the low was 42. Normal low for today is 43. Tomorrow is the day I officially close the pool, just need to put cover on everything else is done. Oct 20th is the latest I've done it so far. I read on the AFD this morning that this weekend is the last time the first and freeze warnings will be used for the season…and if I’m correct they haven’t issued one yet. Let that sink in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: November ‘14??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I have read chatter on some of the other forums of some models showing the Polar Vortex recharging and plopping itself over the North Pole...i.e. 2011-2012ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I have read chatter on some of the other forums of some models showing the Polar Vortex recharging and plopping itself over the North Pole...i.e. 2012ish... I’m not sure where that chatter evolved from due partly in most cases the models are in good agreement the PV stays weak for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m not sure where that chatter evolved from due partly in most cases the models are in good agreement the PV stays weak for a while. Check out page 34 of the New England Winter discussion. Some good discussion on there about it. (Well, good as in meteorology-related...not preferred outcomes. Ha.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 I’m loath to post it but: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 11 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: So. If you drive down transit heading north towards Lockport, that’s where the ridge at eastern hills is. The Sheridan dr underpass is the ridge to “transit Valley”. This COULD be one of the reasons why my area and north to UB are colder than KBUF…however it doesn’t make sense to the east towards Lancaster. That area was almost 9 degrees colder this am. Temp graph from this morning. Again not a huge variance but just such a consistent one. Either ALL of these surrounding PWS are reading 2.0-3.5 degrees colder all at the same times OR there is an issue with just the one KBUF sensor reading too warm. Isolated to the overnight hours and seems to show the largest variance between the hours of 12am - 5am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m loath to post it but: That would be akin to 2011-2012 winter where Alaska had a cold pool of air all winter long, one of their worst in awhile. Whenever Alaska is cold we torch. Definitely a possibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Lol...Sizzlecuse warmest spot in the state at 11 am at 69 degrees. My call of 70 by 11:30 was a good one. Probably be over that by then.... Tropics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: That would be akin to 2011-2012 winter where Alaska had a cold pool of air all winter long, one of their worst in awhile. Whenever Alaska is cold we torch. Definitely a possibility It’s interesting to see such divergent LT’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Finally going to feel like it should this time of year, starting Friday..Or even a little below.. Could see current forecast min temps in the mid-upper 30s western NY to around 30 east of Lake Ontario possibly going lower if lake effect clouds and showers are not as prevalent. If so, we may need some frost or freeze headlines on what will be the final day of our program for the Fall. Friday A slight chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Sunday A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Monday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Did a front or something appear out of nowhere this afternoon. Forecast was mostly sunny as of noon while clouds rolled in and rain started to fall. No mention of anything but dry/sun in BUF forecast discussion. Pretty impressive forecast bust. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 We have one to our NW that's expected to move through tomorrow evening..Seems like the models are missing whatever is going on lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We have one to our NW that's expected to move through tomorrow evening..Seems like the models are missing whatever is going on lol Just as surprised as the models being wrong as I am that the Keebler elves don’t make the cookies, Rudolph really not having a red nose and Tug Hill being an actual snow jinx 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Mostly Sunny my ass. Morning was perfect but that quick shower is turning into a bit of a dreary afternoon. Got the breezy part right! And when I see everyone talking about these outlooks weeks and months down the road… can’t even make today’s call accurate. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Mostly Sunny my ass. Morning was perfect but that quick shower is turning into a bit of a dreary afternoon. Got the breezy part right! And when I see everyone talking about these outlooks weeks and months down the road… can’t even make today’s call accurate. Yeah I would say today was a rare completely blown forecast. I did not expect rain at all, and the models didn't really show it either. Tough one for the NWS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Looking back at my weather journal for this day in recent years and stumbled across this odd entry. I have a vague recollection of this, but damn...what an odd one. "A EF0 Tornado touched down in West Seneca in the middle of heavy graupel and lake effect rain event. A strong front dropped south igniting already strong lake effect rain. Somehow a tornado formed in this unusual airmass causing minor damage. I think it was more of a hybrid waterspout, and would like to see the radar leading up to this event. Regardless, a cool and very rare event. Also (for future reading), there is a documented Tornado in a snow event on the Eastern end of Lake Ontario in Canada. “A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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