wolfie09 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Once cold front moves through by early Saturday afternoon, temps will fall into the upper 50s over higher terrain of WNY to the low to mid 60s Finger Lakes to east of Lake Ontario. It will become quite breezy on Saturday with gusts over 30 mph near both lakes. The cold air will set lake effect processes quickly into motion. First, expect lake effect showers to develop off Lake Erie over western Southern Tier of WNY with mainly westerly flow in the boundary layer. Eventually but pretty late in the day, west-northwest flow will result in lake effect setting up from Tug Hill southwest to the southeast shoreline of Lake Ontario. Initially the intensity of the lake effect will be muted with overall subsidence behind the initial cold front. On Saturday night the lake effect will increase with forecast soundings showing lake ELs rising to over 20kft as initial push of cold air advection lowers H85 temps to +1c to +2c resulting in more than sufficient over-water instability. While this is occurring, additional larger scale lift will develop over the lower Great Lakes and low-level convergence will increase as shown by sfc-H95 winds. Lake effect should sharpen up and intensify, especially off Lake Ontario given a longer over water fetch and more persistent deeper moisture to H7. With temps in the lake convective layer reaching -10c and ELs continuing to increase toward 30kft, setup seems to favor potential for thunder in the stronger lake effect bands. Will stay somewhat breezy for all areas and temps will drop to the 40s and 50s, coolest Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Sunday into Monday, deep trough with coldest air of the season thus far crosses the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. By time coldest air crosses late Monday into Monday night, H85 temps fall to +1c over western NY and to -4c just to east of Lake Ontario. Looking at prolonged lake effect showers southeast of both lakes as winds in boundary layer will have veered northwest by late in the weekend. Deepest moisture and highest inversions will be across Lake Ontario and this is where there will also further support from upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay and the overall support of a longer fetch. Forecast soundings supported keeping likely pops over western Southern Tier on Sunday with categorical pops east-southeast of Lake Ontario. Setup remains very favorable into Monday off Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie though, approach of sfc high and subsidence will result in conditions becoming more hostile to lake effect so have continued to lower pops there. Given the degree of over- water instability, certainly cannot rule it out but just does not look to have the staying power, intensity with what will be occurring southeast of Lake Ontario. No real change to going forecast either way. Will remain breezy on Sunday especially near the stronger mixing over the lakes. Temps both Sunday and Monday will be below normal with highs both days struggling to reach 60 degrees. Lake effect off Lake Ontario will begin to wane late Monday into Monday night as sfc ridge approaches. Some clouds and at least small chance of showers could linger southeast of Lake Ontario until Tuesday though since the H925-H85 ridge will not begin to arrive until that time. Once the lake effect ends, high pressure at the sfc and aloft with warming temps aloft will result in dry and warmer weather. Highs Tuesday will return to the mid 60s though higher terrain may stay in the 50s. All but the highest terrain east of Lake Ontario will see highs in the 60s on Wednesday. Low temps Tuesday night could dip into the 30s for typical cold spots of Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 GFS still has a system 3rd week of October, goes right over us verbatim lol Probably some lake effect to follow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 Looks like I'm definitely closing my pool this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Usually don't see this amount of precipitation advertised on the euro, 2nd or 3rd run in a row showing 3"-5" locally, granted some of this is from the surface cold front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 75 at KBUF another +15-20 day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like they went with a typical Nina. Surprised they went with warm November, I would be surprised by that. I definitely agree with warmer Feb and especially March. Its a good look for us. https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-10-13-late-fall-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast Guess who lives RIGHT on the line? Even TWC trolls me .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Oh, and 4 to 5 degrees above the forecasted high AND the hottest in the state...Sizzlecuse almost never fails it's hellacious temperature max 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Guess who lives RIGHT on the line? Even TWC trolls me .... Right on the line for me also lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Right on the line for me also lol. I think you're just north of it. 25 degree highs for you and 40 degrees on this side...lol Hoping for a fantastic winter with good WNW flow that hammers you AND my locale! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight. The most favored time for severe weather will be from 3 PM to 9 PM. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, but large hail and even an isolated tornado are also possible, especially across the Southern Tier closer to a warm front. There is an additional potential for strong to damaging wind gusts late tonight as another round of thunderstorms develop ahead of a cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Might have to turn the heat on finally Monday. Upper 30s and low 50s highs will probably do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Might have to turn the heat on finally Monday. Upper 30s and low 50s highs will probably do it. We had the furnace on for a few hours a couple of weeks ago when we had a chilly morning. Nothing since. We have not touched our wood pellets yet but I think that changes on Monday for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 Some places in Michigan are +14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 SPC extended the 5% tornado risk to include all of WNY and into ROC now as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: SPC extended the 5% tornado risk to include all of WNY and into ROC now as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 5% is highest TOR risk all year. We going chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 BUF: +11.8 ROC: +8.9 WAT: +9.6 SYR: +10.5 BING: +8.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 DETRIOT: +12.1 FLINT: +13.8 CLEVELAND: +10.2 ERIE PA: +11.1 TOLEDO: +11.9 CHICAGO: +11 MARQUETTE: +13.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 Farther west you go the warmer its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 Toasty still in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 I think the biggest thing we have going for us this year is a weak polar vortex. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Toasty still in the 70s Can we get some 20 degree air over that please. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Don’t see the KBUF office using this verbiage often… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Can we get some 20 degree air over that please. Even 35 degrees over that lake would equate to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 And the warmth from Erie should allow these storms to stay together, I'd imagine. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Could be some decent precipitation wrt the front and LER..NWS going with a WNW"ish" wind direction, focal point Oswego county.. Forecast calls for 1"-2" synoptic and up to an inch liquid lake effect..Rgem as usual probably going a little overboard, especially over WNY vs the consensus.. There will be some variation in wind direction, but a general theme of WNW flow will direct most of the Lake Erie lake effect into the western Southern Tier. Given the degree of over-water instability lake equilibrium levels are forecast to rise sharply off both lakes, though lack of steady deep moisture and some shear in the convective layer will hold back the intensity of the lake effect, at least at times. Overall the setup appears more favorable for Lake Ontario, with generally higher inversions over 10-12kft much of the time, longer over-water fetch given the wind direction and potential for multi-lake upstream connections. This may produce locally heavy rain at times centering on Oswego County where additional rainfall for the Saturday night through Sunday night period will near an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 If we get our best WNW lake effect event of this new season in October via rain, Imma #$@#$$#@... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 3k has two lines developing tomorrow for CNY, 1 in the morning, another early afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Few flakes showing up on the euro (0z).. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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