wolfie09 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Hopefully the start of a busy lake effect season lol Lastly, WPC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: GFS vs European for this weekend.. That's a hefty difference. I'm siding with the GFS due to the long legs of our blocking and warm pattern. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 No better way to end an 80 degree mid October day then catching an epic Lake Erie sunset. Colors tonight were incredible! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 On 10/10/2021 at 7:52 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Almost identical setup. Will depends where that “rain train” line sets up around KC. Dave Schwartz was my favorite on-air personality at TWC growing up. RIP. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: It's coming but I may have to cut back on snow if we get a Moderate Nina like is now being forecast. It changed quite a bit the last month. I'd rather have a weak one. We've never had 3 below average snowfall years in a row since the 1980s so at least we have that going for us. All it takes is 1 event. 2001-2002 was a terrible winter for Buffalo yet they had 158.7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 Another outlook https://www.scribd.com/document/531730561/2021-22-Winter-Outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 54 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Dave Schwartz was my favorite on-air personality at TWC growing up. RIP. Mine too! I was thinking that when I saw this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Anyone think we will see anything? Bit cloudy now but pocket of clear skies moving into WNY on satellite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's coming but I may have to cut back on snow if we get a Moderate Nina like is now being forecast. It changed quite a bit the last month. I'd rather have a weak one. We've never had 3 below average snowfall years in a row since the 1980s so at least we have that going for us. All it takes is 1 event. 2001-2002 was a terrible winter for Buffalo yet they had 158.7". Is it possible to have things not be as extreme as predicted anymore? Like...a balanced ENSO state...aka Neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 I know this has been posted before...but the few moderate La Ninas listed here actually show look ok temperature wise (unless it's balanced between a very cold month and then two warm month...) Syracuse snowfall for all 4 winters was decent, with the "lowest" being an average snowfall winter. It's the Strong La Ninas that are meeeeh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Black hills are about to get mauled. Wildest weather in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 Buffalo at +11 for the month 81/62 yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 Top 10 warmest Octobers, current average is 66.7 degrees. 1 60.5 1900 2 59.8 1947 3 58.8 2007 4 58.7 1971 5 58.2 1879 6 57.2 1920 7 57.2 1949 8 57.1 1963 9 57.0 2017 10 56.6 1946 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 Happy anniversary it’s 85 degrees here today and 15 years ago 2 feet of snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 As of now I'm seeing a return to average"ish" highs early next week but we will still struggle with regards to overnight lows.. Obviously a big reason is the synoptic and lake effect rain showers forecasted.. Actually lows "should" be in the upper 30s by early next week according to the pulaski COOP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Looks like the Canadian is already in fine winter form 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like the Canadian is already in fine winter form I wish they would or could fine tune some of these biases out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Top 10 warmest Octobers, current average is 66.7 degrees. 1 60.5 1900 2 59.8 1947 3 58.8 2007 4 58.7 1971 5 58.2 1879 6 57.2 1920 7 57.2 1949 8 57.1 1963 9 57.0 2017 10 56.6 1946 WOW, it’s not even close. Obviously it will come down some as temps return to normal by next week but I don’t see anyway we don’t shatter the record for warmest October ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Top 10 warmest Octobers, current average is 66.7 degrees. 1 60.5 1900 2 59.8 1947 3 58.8 2007 4 58.7 1971 5 58.2 1879 6 57.2 1920 7 57.2 1949 8 57.1 1963 9 57.0 2017 10 56.6 1946 I would have expected to see more recent years on that list, based on similar lists for other months/seasons that seem to indicate recent warming trends. That list is very well spaced out from 1879 through 2017. Of course 2021 could end up on there soon which is very close to 2017. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Buffalo at +11 for the month 81/62 yesterday. Yeah, the highs and lows have been 15 to 20 degrees above average several different days over the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, winter_rules said: I would have expected to see more recent years on that list, based on similar lists for other months/seasons that seem to indicate recent warming trends. That list is very well spaced out from 1879 through 2017. Of course 2021 could end up on there soon which is very close to 2017. Its more noticeable when you use a full year then individual months. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10 1 52.1 2012 2 51.5 2020 3 51.1 2016 4 50.9 1998 5 50.6 2006 6 50.6 1991 7 50.6 1921 8 50.4 1953 9 50.4 1949 10 50.3 1990 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 It’s most noticeable in the top 10 coldest years. We haven’t had one of those since 1943. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Upstate NY cities are the same, or warmer with higher dewpoints than many locations across the south again. How many times has this happened the couple years? Does latitude matter anymore?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s most noticeable in the top 10 coldest years. We haven’t had one of those since 1943. Interesting...the start of our second Industrial revolution...and the rise of Suburbia....hmmmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Majority time it can be explained.. For today it has to do with the Surface/ULL near lake superior, pumping South/SW flow from the OV.. Weak system off the coast causing more of a NE on shore flow closer to the coast..Plus added cloud cover due to this feature..Hard to see in "night mode" but it's there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 A cold front slowly approaching from the west will stall over southern Ontario early Friday. This will continue the chance for showers during the day Friday and into Friday night. The greatest chance for showers is expected west of the Genesee Valley. As the front slowly tracks closer to the area, showers will gradually expand eastward. With the area still ahead of the cold front, temperatures will still be above normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. A developing wave of low pressure will track northeast along the stalled frontal boundary starting Friday night into early Saturday, increasing the potential for showers and steady rain from WNY to the North Country. A widespread rainfall of an inch or more is looking more and more likely for Friday night into Saturday. The cold front just west of the area late in the week will cross the forecast area on Saturday continuing the potential for rain through most of the day on Saturday. Gusty winds will be possible on Saturday as a LLJ crosses the region with the strengthening area of low pressure. Behind the cold front, and within a large trough over the region cooler temps will cause the widespread synoptic rain to transition to lake enhanced and then lake effect showers. 850H temps will cool to generally the 0 to 2 degrees celsius range, and combined with with the roughly 15C+ lake temperatures, a lake response off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario can be expected through the weekend. Guidance is also showing a few shortwave troughs moving through at different times through the weekend that will also increase the potential for some more widespread showers, but also lake showers. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to near 70 on Saturday. Temperatures will cool closer to normal for the rest of the long term period, with highs in the low 50s over the higher terrain to the low 60s for the lower elevations for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures warm slightly to the mid 50s to mid 60s for the middle of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: No power for 2 weeks. My dad bought a generator a few months before and hooked it up directly to circuit breaker to power essential items. We all slept by the fireplace for 2 weeks in the family room. Lived about 2 miles from airport for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 I love checking out webcams...first winter storm webcam chase of the season. Looks like Rapid City changed over to snow already (earlier than expected) and here's Deadwood, SD. Looks like some heavy, wet snow! Webcams – Visitor Services | Deadwood, South Dakota 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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