wolfie09 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Favored Years for comparison to existing ONI episode are:1955, 1956, 1971, 1984, 1985 (x2), 1996, 2001, 2011 are the selected analogs for the NDJFM 2021-22 season. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Peak fall conditions in the Adirondacks. Stunning colors!! These pics are incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 On 10/7/2021 at 3:48 PM, wolfie09 said: The only repair ever done NOT during a lake effect snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Did they look like this? I wasn't going to mention it but these were two extremely attractive women dressed in skin tight material, and there wasn't even much of it. They were really good at the yoga though and nobody plunged off the side! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 minute ago, cny rider said: I wasn't going to mention it but these were two extremely attractive women dressed in skin tight material, and there wasn't even much of it. They were really good at the yoga though and nobody plunged off the side! You seem a little ‘excited’ by the memory of this story 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Euro monthlies 2M Temp anomalies, November through Feb.. Posted by Larry Cosgrove.. Source Yeah I’m not into the long range models anymore. Take with a whole pound of salt 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Euro monthlies 2M Temp anomalies, November through Feb.. Posted by Larry Cosgrove.. Source Looks about right for the last several years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Bills game Vs the Chiefs tonight could have done severe weather implications…could be a long night if delays hit. Pass! Browsing the mesos looks like quick chance of a storm between 8-9 and then hopefully main storm area stays south of KC. OKC looks to get smoked later today. Lots of chatter about this setup. At least can watch some storm chasers to kill some time until the game starts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Chances for showers then begin to increase Friday night into Saturday, as the upstream trough pushes in and cold front works into and slowly crosses the area. However, there still is some model timing issues but it does appear that cooler and more seasonable air will arrive across the Lower Lakes over the weekend. It may even get cold enough aloft by Sunday to support some lake effect rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Here's my long range anomaly forecast for every month for the next how many years....has a pretty good chance of verifying, ya think? (This obviously doesn't account for microclimates like the sizzle and THM effect...) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 4 hours ago, rochesterdave said: You seem a little ‘excited’ by the memory of this story It was, shall we say, a little titillating. There are worse ways to spend a summer say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Not looking good at the moment… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Not looking good at the moment… This could rival that one Monday night game about 20 or so years ago that dropped 5 1/2” on KC and the game was postponed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 First legit cold shot still showing up, albeit for a couple days on GFS next week…it’s been consistent at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 As to my earlier post, it was 1998 Chiefs vs Seahawks October 4th…game was stopped for 54 minutes 3.36” of rain fell during that time between 7-9pm…was a serious situation in the KC metro area…tonight looks no different… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: This could rival that one Monday night game about 20 or so years ago that dropped 5 1/2” on KC and the game was postponed 1998. It was a Sunday night game… just happened to be week 5 as well… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: As to my earlier post, it was 1998 Chiefs vs Seahawks October 4th…game was stopped for 54 minutes 3.36” of rain fell during that time between 7-9pm…was a serious situation in the KC metro area…tonight looks no different… Almost identical setup. Will depends where that “rain train” line sets up around KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 On 10/9/2021 at 6:29 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Peak fall conditions in the Adirondacks. Stunning colors!! Awesome. I was up at Whiteface this weekend and man I just love Upstate NY. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Rain delay seems imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Rain delay seems imminent. Seems like they're gonna win before the rain gets there. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 This blows… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: This blows… Yup it was well forecast…in fact the amount of activity that is forecast to move through this game might be called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Awesome. I was up at Whiteface this weekend and man I just love Upstate NY. Did you hike or drive up whiteface? It’s beautiful up there, especially for sunrise/sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Did you hike or drive up whiteface? It’s beautiful up there, especially for sunrise/sunset Drove. Worth every penny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Decent amount of precipitation on the euro between the frontal passage and LER. A strong upper level trough/surface cold front are progged to cross western and northcentral NY sometime between later Friday night and the first half of Saturday night. Strong forcing and ample moisture will bring the next round of more significant showers to our area, however due to timing differences between the various guidance packages, will cap PoPs at High Chc at this time. PoPs will need to be increased during at least a portion of this timeframe when better confidence in the exact timing occurs. Much cooler air filters in later Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of the cold fropa. A cool, moist cyclonic flow aloft will keep scattered showers around, with lake effect showers possible downwind of the Lakes as 850Ts cool to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0C to +3C. It will also become quite breezy as well. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the work week, will trend toward more seasonable readings by the second half of weekend in the wake of the strong cold fropa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Decent amount of precipitation on the euro between the frontal passage and LER. A strong upper level trough/surface cold front are progged to cross western and northcentral NY sometime between later Friday night and the first half of Saturday night. Strong forcing and ample moisture will bring the next round of more significant showers to our area, however due to timing differences between the various guidance packages, will cap PoPs at High Chc at this time. PoPs will need to be increased during at least a portion of this timeframe when better confidence in the exact timing occurs. Much cooler air filters in later Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of the cold fropa. A cool, moist cyclonic flow aloft will keep scattered showers around, with lake effect showers possible downwind of the Lakes as 850Ts cool to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0C to +3C. It will also become quite breezy as well. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the work week, will trend toward more seasonable readings by the second half of weekend in the wake of the strong cold fropa. "Much cooler" Leads to... "More seasonable" Sad...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 The highly amplified upper ridge over the eastern CONUS will result in a dry and unseasonably warm day today. Temperatures will generally average as much as 20 degrees above normal, with record challenging high temperatures possibly exceeding 80 degrees across the lower terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 I'm seeing upper 50s and lower 60s for highs and partly cloudy skies next week. Please, oh, please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 It's just incredible to me how much the Lake Plains of New York roast in comparison to other locations. 79 degrees in Dunkirk, while on the other end of the county and almost 1,000 feet higher, it's 10 degrees colder at 69 degrees in Jamestown. When I was in Science class, we learned that every 1000 feet is a 3 degree difference. But now I would say there are several other factors that seem to be contributing to an even bigger difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 GFS vs European for this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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