BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Sams ACE is up to 44.3, if it hits 51 it would put it into the top 10 all time of ACE in the Atlantic. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic Storm Year Peak classification ACE Duration Hurricane Ivan 2004 Category 5 hurricane 70.4 23 days Hurricane Irma 2017 Category 5 hurricane 64.9 13 days Hurricane Isabel 2003 Category 5 hurricane 63.3 14 days Hurricane Donna 1960 Category 4 hurricane 57.6 16 days Hurricane Carrie 1957 Category 4 hurricane 55.8 21 days Hurricane Inez 1966 Category 4 hurricane 54.6 21 days Hurricane Luis 1995 Category 4 hurricane 53.5 16 days Hurricane Allen 1980 Category 5 hurricane 52.3 12 days Hurricane Esther 1961 Category 5 hurricane 52.2 18 days Hurricane Matthew 2016 Category 5 hurricane 50.9 12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Lets hope this pattern doesn't lock in too long. This is what we've had the last 2 winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 1:24 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Lets hope this pattern doesn't lock in too long. This is what we've had the last 2 winters Expand Why does this keep happening? The ridge sets up at such a weird angle as well, that it makes it hard to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Sizzle Sizzle (for this time of year), especially as you head farther S/W.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 2:28 PM, wolfie09 said: Sizzle Sizzle (for this time of year), especially as you head farther S/W.. Expand Checked the conditions for subtropical Syracuse and see the $+@-@(**"'#_ SW winds kicked in and the temp immediately skyrocketed 7 degrees in an hour and 14 degrees in the past 2 hours. I am so over this furnace of a city. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Looks like Albany finally questioned their thermometer. I have brought this up a couple of times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 3:02 PM, Blue Moon said: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder; this weather is awesome. Expand Compared to Tennessee, I can imagine! It's sort of the known-curse I have that wherever I move warms up and becomes snowless. I am a hardcore cold weather person. We joke that I ruined the winters of CNY because they have been less than spectacular (compared to normal) since I moved here. As a southerner, this probably feels cool to you, but this is well above normal for those of us who are used to what-used-to-be a cooler, northern climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 3:31 PM, Blue Moon said: Nashville's weather looks tropical for the foreseeable future. Yuck. Expand Looks beautiful to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 3:08 PM, TugHillMatt said: Looks like Albany finally questioned their thermometer. I have brought this up a couple of times. Expand Someone send a message to SYR observation to see if theres is broken. Buffalo/SYR too warm, Albany too cold. Roc seems a little too cold too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 3:31 PM, Blue Moon said: Nashville's weather looks tropical for the foreseeable future. Yuck. Expand When you think about how many hundreds of miles farther north we are...our forecast doesn't look much different or cooler, especially at night. To me, that just shows the absurdity of it all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Looks like you want a warm Oct/early Nov in the Northeast to get a good winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 5:02 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like you want a warm Oct/early Nov in the Northeast to get a good winter. Expand Would be totally fine by me. Let’s enjoy some 60s and 70s until Veterans Day and then flip the switch to big time cold and snow. Keeps the lakes warm and primed and we can all enjoy some extended time doing outdoor activities. Sign me up in a heartbeat. Cold and below normal temps now don’t do much for us except for make us miserable in the 40s and 50s with rain, maybe a mangled flake or two in a couple weeks on the highest hilltops. I’ll pass and save the cold and below normal temps for when averages are 10-15 degrees colder a month or so from now so below normal will get us actual accumulating snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Some record cold across South Pole 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Brutal cold in Antarctica, impressive even for the coldest place on Planet Earth. In fact, this was the most severe cold season on record for the South Pole The end of September came close to the world record for lowest temperature in October (-80°C). The all-time global cold record is −89.2 °C (−128.6°F) from Vostok Station on 21 July 1983. The Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station experienced the coldest average temperature for April to September in 2021 on record. Records date back to 1957. (Richard Cullather/British Antarctic Survey)'. This information has been fact-checked and verified. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 5:16 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Would be totally fine by me. Let’s enjoy some 60s and 70s until Veterans Day and then flip the switch to big time cold and snow. Keeps the lakes warm and primed and we can all enjoy some extended time doing outdoor activities. Sign me up in a heartbeat. Cold and below normal temps now don’t do much for us except for make us miserable in the 40s and 50s with rain, maybe a mangled flake or two in a couple weeks on the highest hilltops. I’ll pass and save the cold and below normal temps for when averages are 10-15 degrees colder a month or so from now so below normal will get us actual accumulating snow. Expand Good point...how about mid 60s for highs and mid 40s for lows throughout the month of October? I'd be ok with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Well I'll have to gree to disagree lol I don't know why anyone would want to go from summer to winter, fall is by far one of the nicest seasons lol Let's keep the lakes warm so anyone near it can torch till mid December lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 We still floatin 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 5:50 PM, wolfie09 said: Well I'll have to gree to disagree lol I don't know why anyone would want to go from summer to winter, fall is by far one of the nicest seasons lol Let's keep the lakes warm so anyone near it can torch to mid December lol Expand The warm lake didn’t do much for the October storm. Heavy snow all over including beach. It does have a little affect but not too much. You want Warm lakes when the real cold hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Well I hear that every year but yet to see any correlation between warm falls and snowier winters.. Year after year we are above average month after month yet we continue to have below average snowfall.. Lake Ontario lake temps don't control the upper level pattern, without frequent cold outbreaks, a warm lake is meaningless... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 6:06 PM, wolfie09 said: Well I hear that every year but yet to see any correlation between warm falls and snowier winters.. Year after year we are above average month after month yet we continue to have below average snowfall.. Lake Ontario lake temps don't control the upper level pattern, without plenty of cold outbreaks, a warm lake is meaningless... Expand This. Doesn't seem to matter what the indices are or what months are warm anymore to really make a prediction about the upcoming winters... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 6:06 PM, wolfie09 said: Well I hear that every year but yet to see any correlation between warm falls and snowier winters.. Year after year we are above average month after month yet we continue to have below average snowfall.. Lake Ontario lake temps don't control the upper level pattern, without frequent cold outbreaks, a warm lake is meaningless... Expand Oh I definitely agree warm winters do not equal above average snow. I was just mentioning warm Octobers have a small correlation to above average snowfall years. We don't want colder than average Oct/Nov because then we usually get warmer than average Dec-Feb. Its true that colder than average winters equate to above average snowfall years. The only thing warmer waters do for us off Erie is keep the possibility of a big LES event. Once we have a frozen lake that goes away. For those off Ontario it doesn't matter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Top of Mt. Katahdin in Maine yesterday. Looking to hike this next summer, some rough conditions on top of ADK 46s the last few days. Near hurricane force wind gusts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Awesome weather day today! Maybe a little warm but had a nice time taking the kids apple picking in Collins. Spent the afternoon cutting back the gardens and starting to look at some winter prep. Saw a few colors started to pop up in the hills but overall still pretty green right now. Too bad we couldn’t have a repeat weather day tomorrow for the game… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 5:45 PM, TugHillMatt said: Good point...how about mid 60s for highs and mid 40s for lows throughout the month of October? I'd be ok with that. Expand Absolutely, what good is it having "average weather" in late October with a high of 46F and drizzle? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 10:27 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Awesome weather day today! Maybe a little warm but had a nice time taking the kids apple picking in Collins. Spent the afternoon cutting back the gardens and starting to look at some winter prep. Saw a few colors started to pop up in the hills but overall still pretty green right now. Too bad we couldn’t have a repeat weather day tomorrow for the game… Expand Awald farms? We were there this morning with the kids getting pumpkins. Definitely a little more color change there than at my house and it’s only about 15 minutes away. Was an absolutely fantastic day out today. Don’t mind another few weeks of this at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 On 10/3/2021 at 12:59 AM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Awald farms? We were there this morning with the kids getting pumpkins. Definitely a little more color change there than at my house and it’s only about 15 minutes away. Was an absolutely fantastic day out today. Don’t mind another few weeks of this at all. Expand Not far from there... went to Stonehill Orchard on Shirley Road. Took the back roads through Boston to get back up to the 219... just some incredible land up there. had to go buy a lotto ticket, would be a dream to have a house up on one of those hills with a nice overlooking view. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 3, 2021 Author Share Posted October 3, 2021 On 10/3/2021 at 2:50 AM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Not far from there... went to Stonehill Orchard on Shirley Road. Took the back roads through Boston to get back up to the 219... just some incredible land up there. had to go buy a lotto ticket, would be a dream to have a house up on one of those hills with a nice overlooking view. Expand My wifes dad has 10 acres out in Boston on a private lake. My retirement plan is to eventually build a house on that land. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Recieving some light rain this morning, 0.29" in the gauge so far.. Sorry BW.. Looks like a batch of moderate showers heading that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 We’re going to get wet @BuffaloWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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