Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[wolfie09]

Enjoy lol

At least Average temps continue to lower,  we will need high +anomalies to see hot weather in October.. Average highs start in the mid 60s and end in the low 50s..

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Alright did one last run of the numbers by hour and I think this helps see what we are talking about...  Can you guys let me know if I am explaining this right and it makes sense as to what I am seeing?

Ran the hourly temps for the 9 stations from 4pm on 9/19 thru 9am on 9/20.  Used the top of the hour readings at each station, the same time KBUF posts so time is consistent within 5 minutes.  Weather during this period was uneventful, only some high fair weather clouds just before sunset and just after sunrise.  There was a variable wind out of the east at 5-8mph, so Lake Erie influence would be rather muted if any at all.  Overnight was clear so this should give a good picture of the full impact on solar heating impacts, loss of heating overnight and general UHI impacts that we could be looking at.  

To try and summarize the readings I averaged the hourly temperatures at the 8 surrounding PWS sites and used that as my "base line normal/average".  I then lined that base line up against the temperature that KBUF reported for that hour and used the difference as a "departure from normal" value.  ...(((THIS MAKES SENSE RIGHT?)))...  

*NOTE* KBUF temperature is rounded while PWS sites are down to tenths so even if I put my margin of error right around 1.0 degrees, the data will still stand out...   From 4pm-6pm KBUF is running right in line with the surrounding stations, and is actually cooler than some nearby.  Just prior to sunset at 7pm we see the surrounding stations all make pretty large drops (roughly 4 degrees) but KBUF only drops by 2 degrees.  The decrease continues to a lesser extent throughout the overnight and by 5am KBUF is running over 4 degrees above the average of the nearby stations.  As the sun rises after 7am the large variance rapidly goes away as the other stations start to catch back up to KBUF by 9am with the help of the warming sun.

If this doesn't support the UHI impact at KBUF overnight I don't know what does!

Thoughts?  

  

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Alright did one last run of the numbers by hour and I think this helps see what we are talking about...  Can you guys let me know if I am explaining this right and it makes sense as to what I am seeing?

Ran the hourly temps for the 9 stations from 4pm on 9/19 thru 9am on 9/20.  Used the top of the hour readings at each station, the same time KBUF posts so time is consistent within 5 minutes.  Weather during this period was uneventful, only some high fair weather clouds just before sunset and just after sunrise.  There was a variable wind out of the east at 5-8mph, so Lake Erie influence would be rather muted if any at all.  Overnight was clear so this should give a good picture of the full impact on solar heating impacts, loss of heating overnight and general UHI impacts that we could be looking at.  

To try and summarize the readings I averaged the hourly temperatures at the 8 surrounding PWS sites and used that as my "base line normal/average".  I then lined that base line up against the temperature that KBUF reported for that hour and used the difference as a "departure from normal" value.  ...(((THIS MAKES SENSE RIGHT?)))...  

*NOTE* KBUF temperature is rounded while PWS sites are down to tenths so even if I put my margin of error right around 1.0 degrees, the data will still stand out...   From 4pm-6pm KBUF is running right in line with the surrounding stations, and is actually cooler than some nearby.  Just prior to sunset at 7pm we see the surrounding stations all make pretty large drops (roughly 4 degrees) but KBUF only drops by 2 degrees.  The decrease continues to a lesser extent throughout the overnight and by 5am KBUF is running over 4 degrees above the average of the nearby stations.  As the sun rises after 7am the large variance rapidly goes away as the other stations start to catch back up to KBUF by 9am with the help of the warming sun.

If this doesn't support the UHI impact at KBUF overnight I don't know what does!

Thoughts?  

  

Looks good to me. Send it over and see what they say. 

[BuffaloWeather]

18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Enjoy lol

At least Average temps continue to lower,  we will need high +anomalies to see hot weather in October.. Average highs start in the mid 60s and end in the low 50s..

A cold October doesn't do us much, keep the lakes warm for a cooler November and lets get rocking. 

[wolfie09]

They will probably say WU stations are unreliable lol 

Look at 3 pulaski stations, separated by 7° lol 

Yes you can get some decent stations if you want to spend 300+..

Not to say something isn't fishy lol But WU stations are also not the most reliable at times.. Obviously during the day you have a solar component..

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

They will probably say WU stations are unreliable lol 

Look at 3 pulaski stations, separated by 7° lol 

Yes you can get some decent stations if you want to spend 300+..

Not to say something isn't fishy lol But WU stations are also not the most reliable at times.. Obviously during the day you have a solar component..

That’s why I looked at 8 stations all within 3 miles of the airport.  1 or 2 could be skewed but all of them?

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

They will probably say WU stations are unreliable lol 

Look at 3 pulaski stations, separated by 7° lol 

Yes you can get some decent stations if you want to spend 300+..

Not to say something isn't fishy lol But WU stations are also not the most reliable at times.. Obviously during the day you have a solar component..

Did not even think of this, great point. 

[Syrmax]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A cold October doesn't do us much, keep the lakes warm for a cooler November and lets get rocking. 

I just closed the pool.  Was still 72 degrees and swimmable.  I got in to mess with the Pillow and it wasn't bad esp on a "sizzly" kind of day here.     I'm onboard rooting for the climate change bandwagon!  Let's turn CNY into North Carolina weather! 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I just closed the pool.  Was still 72 degrees and swimmable.  I got in to mess with the Pillow and it wasn't bad esp on a "sizzly" kind of day here.     I'm onboard rooting for the climate change bandwagon!  Let's turn CNY into North Carolina weather! 

I went swimming after work yesterday and again today. The next few weeks I'll be floating in the sun, probably close mid October or if first freeze is coming. 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I went swimming after work yesterday and again today. The next few weeks I'll be floating in the sun, probably close mid October or if first freeze is coming. 

you must have some kind of heater.  I keep threatening to get one but the past 2-3 summers were good enough without one.  Though it would extend the short season, impossible to maintain close to 80 after Labor day around here.  If i was in the UHI...maybe.  But nights in the country (sort of) just knock temps down too fast in September, even with a solar cover on it 24/7.

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

you must have some kind of heater.  I keep threatening to get one but the past 2-3 summers were good enough without one.  Though it would extend the short season, impossible to maintain close to 80 after Labor day around here.  If i was in the UHI...maybe.  But nights in the country (sort of) just knock temps down too fast in September, even with a solar cover on it 24/7.

I am pretty close to the lake so nighttime fall temps don't get cold here for quite awhile. I can also swim in my pool in the 60s without being too cold. 

[wolfie09]

Quote

Before getting into the details...will pass along that the forecast
for this period is largely based on a blend of the ECMWF and NH Can.
While these packages have sped up the overall pcpn by about 6 hours
from previous forecasts...they remain slower than the outlying
GFS...which will continue to be ignored at this point.

The closed low over the mid western states will drift north and
deepen Wednesday night...while the associated sfc low will do the
same as it will track across western Lake Erie. The sfc occlusion
will slowly start to cross the far western counties in the
process...being slowed by the parallel winds through H7 and a robust
Rex block off the coast. Showery pcpn will remain `hit and miss`
east of the Finger Lakes while steadier rain will develop over far
western New York where the rain could be moderately heavy to the
tune of between a half and one inch. A few thunderstorms will also
be possible across the Southern Tier where the environment will be a
bit more unstable and synoptic forcing will be greater. This will
result in a running 24 hour total rainfall of an inch to an inch and
a half over the far western counties. While this should certainly
prompt a noticeable jump in water levels on tributaries in that
area...its worth pointing out the 6 hour flash flood guidance is two
to two and a half inches and the described rainfall up to this point
will come in a 24 hour period.

The vertically stacked storm will be centered over Lower Michigan on
Thursday while the sfc occlusion will march to the east across our
forecast area. A 50-75 mile wide band of moderately heavy rain will
precede/accompany the boundary with another half to three quarters
of inch expected...primarily over the Genesee valley and Finger
Lakes region. Again...this will support distinct rises on area
tributaries...but relatively dry antecedent conditions leading into
this event and rainfall rates below FFG should keep area streams
within their banks. That being said...WPC continues to shade our
forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rain with a slight
risk (next higher category) for the far western counties.

The stacked low will open up and accelerate north across Lake Huron
and the SOO Thursday night. The occlusion...which should be over the
North Country Thursday evening...will exit via the Adirondacks
overnight. While the showers will end from west to east overnight...
rainfall amounts could total another three quarters of inch for the
Eastern Lake Ontario region.

All in all...this long lived (48 hour) event will yield forecast
rainfall amounts that will range from an inch and a half in most
areas to more than 2 inches for parts of far western New York. A
southerly flow will result in a roughly 25% reduction in rainfall in
the downslope areas for the counties lining the south shore of Lake
Ontario. While this is high confidence of the general scenario for
significant rain...the timing of the sfc occlusion moving through
(and thus timing of heaviest rainfall) is less than optimal.

 

[wolfie09]

Some guidance, not all, show some LER Sunday night- Monday morning..

 

[brentrich]

GPS is showing much above average by next weekend and beyond. We had too many days of above average this month, please tell me it's not true. 

[wolfie09]

You guys got me wondering if my station is running a little warm lol It does have a shield but wondering if it needs to be replaced..Sure enough my station running a few degrees warmer than the "official" spotter, especially on hot days and during the day.. Even during the nights there seems to be some discrepancy, 3-6° within a mile distance, at times..May need to upgrade come Christmas lol

I did find it funny how the spotter report shows the same temp 4 straight days(8/9-8/12) and then 3 more days lol (8/16-8/18) I guess it's possible, rounding up or down but idk lol 

[mississaugasnow]

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Enjoy lol

At least Average temps continue to lower,  we will need high +anomalies to see hot weather in October.. Average highs start in the mid 60s and end in the low 50s..

I enjoy warm Octobers. Though warm is lower 70s in early October and 60F at end. Im not a big fan of 80s in October, it just feels weird with the sun angle being so low yet so hot. 

Once November 1st hits though I want upper 30s and chances of wet snow haha 

[wolfie09]

To add to my previous post..

While everyone was soaking in the 90s, pulaski spotter reported ZERO, yes ZERO 90° days lol This is what NOAA uses for our 30 year average as well..

[TugHillMatt]

5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

That dang hole of despair again… better get use to it boys… gonna be a longggg winta! 

Hey, at least you wouldn't be in what would be the heavier band of RAIN over the Syracuse area... 

[TugHillMatt]

21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

To add to my previous post..

While everyone was soaking in the 90s, pulaski spotter reported ZERO, yes ZERO 90° days lol This is what NOAA uses for our 30 year average as well..

Sign me up...is their house for sale? 

[BuffaloWeather]

Good stuff wolf. My station was always so off that I never posted it here. It sits on my shed in the sun all day. I'm looking into getting a better one, that was a gift from my sister.

[BuffaloWeather]

8 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

That’s why I looked at 8 stations all within 3 miles of the airport.  1 or 2 could be skewed but all of them?

Did you hear back yet?

[BuffaloWeather]

This video is insane...

 

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Did you hear back yet?

No.  It shows they read my message but nothing.  Be nice to at least get a we'll look into it or something.  Feel free to send those docs to them too, maybe if they see it being reported by multiple people they will at least address it or explain why it looks the way it does?

I know we talk about the "Island" impact but do we need to look at this on a larger scale?  Construction everywhere right now, vacant unused old store plaza lay waste, green space is disappearing.  Rapid new builds expanding out past the suburbs.  It's just mind boggling thinking how much heat gets held in all that pavement, that will ultimately later in the evening result in increasingly warmer overnight periods.  Hear that mentioned a lot lately about how warm it stays after sunset, this could be a very could reason why. 

I look at a place like Cheektowaga where the airport is (delta posted a pic on prev page)  Its densely populated residential, heavy commercial with massive lots, and a massive amount of rail lines.  The only green space in town is the super fund toxic cleanup zone by the airport.  Crap buried there probably exhausting some heat as it breaks down.           

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

This is the 3am update.  KBUF reading was from 254am and PWS were from 259am.  10 unique different PWS all reporting within 1.0 degrees of each other... Then KBUF actually jumping up to 69 degrees at the update, sitting almost 2.5 degrees warmer then the next warmest station.  

[Buffalo Bumble]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This video is insane...

 

 

Incredible but terribly tragic. Have to think everyone they passed didn’t make it out. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Did you hear back yet?

Temp is a function of location.  So is that fancy talk for saying that the sensor could be impacted by urban heat retention at night, but it is what it is?

 

[wolfie09]

Euro is pretty wet over the next couple days..

[wolfie09]

Latest graphics

[BuffaloWeather]

It's officially fall!

Average high/low today for KBUF is 68.7/51.1

[wolfie09]

Hi Rez Canadian