Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

22 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

West seneca has been the focal point of almost every major event the last 30 years. Even the Dec. 2001 event they got over 70". You get more events the farther south and southeast you go but the big dogs have a target from Buffalo to Hamburg usually. Makes sense as you get the entire fetch of the lake. 

Grew up right in that sweet spot on the West Seneca OP boarder.  Felt like 95-06 we were always in the mix with a few good lake effect dumps every year.  That spot you catch the southern edge of the SW bands, the northern edge of the more W bands and when that WSW flow locks in that’s the sweet spot for the mega rates to set up.  

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I mean it actually said it in the discussion…

You're right I didn't read the bottom.

This trend continued until about noon
Sunday...with the band oriented on a 240 axis across the northern 
half of the Buffalo metro area. It remained stationary until about 4 
pm...then...finally...the flow veered with the passage of the trof 
to a 270 vector by 8pm.

This could be 
because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the 
models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air 
worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow 
more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models 
indicated.  Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much 
with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from 
the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the 
Lakes.  This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still 
occurs.

[wolfie09]

Some convection has developed, E-NE of Ontario.. Rainfall starting to pick up somewhat..

[BuffaloWeather]

Buf at +1.8 for Sep so far, early next week looks like mid summer weather.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Good read… thoughts?

 

[Intensewind002]

All the storms managed to go around albany today  I think I brought some the long island anti-storm barrier with me up here

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Good read… thoughts?

 

I'm not sure I agree. If we have a bad pacific it doesn't matter how weak the PV is. There is no mechanism to get the cold air here. Our winters are warming exponentially. A warm pacific ocean buckles the jet stream in favor of a warm east. Give me a negative EPO all day over anything else the arctic does. Don Paul has always had an obsession of Cohen with his Siberian ice cover and SSW hypothesis. The mets over on the New England forum have dismantled both of these ideas.

[BuffaloWeather]

I will say we 100% want a weaker PV vs a stronger one. But a weak/strong PV means  nothing unless you have a mechanism to get that cold air to our area. That is dictated by the Pacific Ocean and on some occasions atlantic blocking

[Buckeyes_Suck]

17 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

What snow totals are you guys predicting for your area this winter? 

I'm aware last winter sucked for this region. Oswego received less than half its annual average snowfall- 58". I'm hopeful this weak resurgent Niña can give us more than that, but I'm new to this area and not sure what ranges are given for seasonal snowfall predictions. (E.g. 80-110", 130-150"... are those ranges too broad?)

Anyone want to throw out predictions for the first snowfall in your area? First freeze? All of your thoughts will give me a better idea of the climate here. 

Are we playing price is right rules?

if so I’m going for first freeze 11/4

First measurable snowfall 11/11

Going big with 134” snowfall with a bills super bowl win

 

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm going with this guy.

September looks like it is moving toward my tentative blend for winter. This is the idea for snow from the analogs. It's a decent match for ENSO strength, ENSO order, solar, the AMO and PDO, with high a lot of Gulf Coast hurricane hits, and a -QBO look too. Generally the look is more optimistic for snow in California, the mid-South and some Great Lake snow belts, but a bit less optimistic for the Northeast compared to last year. The way we get these totals by timing is also very different from 2020-21. I suspect that's true for temps too. In the West, I'm trying to balance 1974-75 and 2017-18, one very wet, one very dry, one hyper active in the Atlantic, one hyper quiet, both weak La Nina years with similar precip/temp patterns in Summer.

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Blue Moon said:

What snow totals are you guys predicting for your area this winter? 

I'm aware last winter sucked for this region. Oswego received less than half its annual average snowfall- 58". I'm hopeful this weak resurgent Niña can give us more than that, but I'm new to this area and not sure what ranges are given for seasonal snowfall predictions. (E.g. 80-110", 130-150"... are those ranges too broad?)

Anyone want to throw out predictions for the first snowfall in your area? First freeze? All of your thoughts will give me a better idea of the climate here. 

Since we haven't had 3 below normal snowfall years in a row since the 1980s,  I have to go with the law of averages and say above normal snowfall and around normal temps.

First Snowfall: Nov. 7th

First Freeze: Oct. 29th

[BuffaloWeather]

I think I had nearly 70" in December of 2017, a great LES month.

[Thinksnow18]

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're right I didn't read the bottom.

This trend continued until about noon
Sunday...with the band oriented on a 240 axis across the northern 
half of the Buffalo metro area. It remained stationary until about 4 
pm...then...finally...the flow veered with the passage of the trof 
to a 270 vector by 8pm.

This could be 
because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the 
models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air 
worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow 
more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models 
indicated.  Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much 
with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from 
the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the 
Lakes.  This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still 
occurs.

Now if we can only get TODAYS meteorologists to read this and remember it come late November through Mid-December…

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Since we haven't had 3 below normal snowfall years in a row since the 1980s,  I have to go with the law of averages and say above normal snowfall and around normal temps.

First Snowfall: Nov. 7th

First Freeze: Oct. 29th

First snowfall: November 13th

First Freeze: October 21st

Snowfall: 99”

Temps: +.5 for Dec-Feb

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

10 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

What snow totals are you guys predicting for your area this winter? 

I'm aware last winter sucked for this region. Oswego received less than half its annual average snowfall- 58". I'm hopeful this weak resurgent Niña can give us more than that, but I'm new to this area and not sure what ranges are given for seasonal snowfall predictions. (E.g. 80-110", 130-150"... are those ranges too broad?)

Anyone want to throw out predictions for the first snowfall in your area? First freeze? All of your thoughts will give me a better idea of the climate here. 

Pretty good idea with this chart.  Would be representative of pretty much any lower elevation location along the lake here.  

[BuffaloWeather]

We can't complain. Our yearly snowfall has gone up for all stations. This is a little misleading as the KBUF reporting station was on the beach in the 1930s.

But Buf, Roc, Syr all have gone up with their 30 year averages. Buf the least, Syr second, and Roc with the biggest increase. 

Change in snowfall 1930-2007:

[vortmax]

19 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Good read… thoughts?

 

I thought a strong SSW event in Jan contributed to this. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-polar-vortex-early-2021

And here's a paper related to the 2015 Feb cold (again SSW): https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL065864

I know they want to blame GW (it seems to be popular these days), but I don't necessarily buy it.

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Colorful fall foliage emerging throughout Adirondacks, Catskills and Thousand Islands-Seaway regions.

 

Foliage change is accelerating in the Thousand Islands – Seaway region. In Oswego County, expect 15% leaf change this weekend, with some fall colors of red and orange emerging. St. Lawrence County foliage spotters in Louisville predict up to 15% color change, with shades of red and yellow beginning to appear. Jefferson County foliage spotters reporting from the Thousand Islands Bridge on Wellesley Island predict up to 10% color change this weekend, with yellow leaves and touches of red leaves making their debut.

Read the rest here

[Ericjcrash]

42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Colorful fall foliage emerging throughout Adirondacks, Catskills and Thousand Islands-Seaway regions.

 

Foliage change is accelerating in the Thousand Islands – Seaway region. In Oswego County, expect 15% leaf change this weekend, with some fall colors of red and orange emerging. St. Lawrence County foliage spotters in Louisville predict up to 15% color change, with shades of red and yellow beginning to appear. Jefferson County foliage spotters reporting from the Thousand Islands Bridge on Wellesley Island predict up to 10% color change this weekend, with yellow leaves and touches of red leaves making their debut.

Read the rest here

That map is brutally off not that it matters lol. Definitely more areas under change 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

I might have to go take a ride and check this out.  The dome came off today to move forward with the pedestal replacement.  

[wolfie09]

32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That map is brutally off not that it matters lol. Definitely more areas under change 

Yeah definitely but it may have to be at a certain level for them to report it lol I've seen some change reported all the way down to LI..We had change before last week's initial report but it showed nothing here yet lol So who knows, maybe a lack of leaf peepers lol

I just took a ride through the 1000 island region yesterday and they definitely have more vibrant colors then south of here.. Obviously I can't speak for your area..

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Glitchy at the end…

[Thinksnow18]

42 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Glitchy at the end…

I think the GFS has lost its mind

[DeltaT13]

25 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think the GFS has lost its mind

The GFS has been completely over amplified garbage outside of 240 hours for the last couple of years.  I'm really surprised they haven't found a way to tweak it.  The output past 300 hours are literally insane.  I mean how is someone who designs and vets these models ok with snow in North Carolina on that run.  Its virtually impossible.  

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Glitchy at the end…

Terrible model. 

[wolfie09]

Euro says some chillier days ahead..

[wolfie09]

I'm digging the new maps lol

[Ericjcrash]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Glitchy at the end…

In fairness it was snowy in the same timeframe on yesterday's 18z lmao 

[wolfie09]

Continued surface high pressure under the upper level ridge building
eastward into New England Monday and Tuesday will support mostly dry
and warm weather both days. Highs will be 10-15 degrees above
average with low 80s across the Lake Plains, mid to upper 70s on the
higher terrain. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night will mainly
settle in the low/mid 60s, with 50s east of Lake Ontario.

Meanwhile, an amplifying upper level trough over the Rockies will
deepen and eventually form a closed low. By Wednesday, the upper
level pattern will have shifted further east, introducing deep
southwesterly flow over the region. As the center of the low lifts
northeastward into Canada, a cold front extending southward from the
low will begin to approach the region. This will bring an increasing
chance of showers from west to east beginning Tuesday night. Best
chances for showers with this system currently look to be Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning as per the latest 12z ECMWF and
Canadian solutions. Temperatures cool off for Wednesday and
especially Thursday as cooler air associated with the front advects
into the region.